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Dissecting the Draft 

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June 12, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Draft Wrap

6

Nick J. Faleris

Recapping the shadow draft and sifting through potential signing scenarios.

The MLB First-Year Player Draft concluded on Saturday afternoon, and with it concluded the sixth installment of the “shadow draft/shadow system” project I have been running dating back to 2008. This Dissecting the Draft series has explored the process of formulating a strategy for draft day, from exploring candidates for first-round selection to examining the strengths and weaknesses of the draft class and the effects thereof on our establishment of loose goals, or “wants,” within our overarching strategy.

The below table constitutes my “work sheet” for the three days of the draft. It contains each of the slots where a pick was to be made, the amount allocated to each slot by Major League Baseball, an estimate as to what bonus a particular selection would command, and a running tally as to how much of my total pool allotment I expect to have available after each signing (assuming signings in each of the first 10 rounds—remember, these are the rounds that comprise the total pool allotment, and you only have access to the money if you sign the player you draft in that slot).

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June 9, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Draft Wrap

0

Nick J. Faleris

Recapping the shadow draft and sifting through potential signing scenarios.

The MLB First-Year Player Draft concluded on Saturday afternoon, and with it concluded the sixth installment of the “shadow draft/shadow system” project I have been running dating back to 2008. This Dissecting the Draft series has explored the process of formulating a strategy for draft day, from exploring candidates for first-round selection to examining the strengths and weaknesses of the draft class and the effects thereof on our establishment of loose goals, or “wants,” within our overarching strategy.

The below table constitutes my “work sheet” for the three days of the draft. It contains each of the slots where a pick was to be made, the amount allocated to each slot by Major League Baseball, an estimate as to what bonus a particular selection would command, and a running tally as to how much of my total pool allotment I expect to have available after each signing (assuming signings in each of the first 10 rounds—remember, these are the rounds that comprise the total pool allotment, and you only have access to the money if you sign the player you draft in that slot).

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How did the first two rounds of the draft play out for Nick's shadow team?

Yesterday we completed Day 1 of the MLB First-Year Player Draft, which consisted of the first two rounds (including competitive balance picks) and the first two picks of our “Shadow Draft”—the seventh and 45th overall selections. As a quick recap, our last full entry in the series highlighted five “wants,” or goals, for us to accomplish with this draft. These “wants” represented a best-case scenario for us as far as taking advantage of the strengths of the draft class as we see them and the needs of our “Shadow Farm System” (a summary of the system can be found back in the introductory piece to this series):

(1) Two middle infielders;
(2) One corner infielder;
(3) One college pitcher;
(4) One catcher;
(5) One “best available” with at least two potential future plus tools (this “want” could be simultaneously satisfied by one of the above four selections, as well).





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June 6, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Three Roads from Which to Choose

6

Nick J. Faleris

It's draft day, and a draft strategy has been put into place.

Over the past six entries in this Dissecting the Draft series, we’ve focused on the first-round selection— seventh overall—in our “shadow draft” in order to lay the foundation for an overarching strategy. We first identified 14 potential targets and broke them down into tiers. After examining each target in greater detail, we arrived at the below breakdown, consisting of three Tier 1 targets and nine Tier 2 targets. We have removed from consideration two of our 14 targets due to injury.

The below lists are arranged by preference based on Adjusted Overall Future Potential—a culmination of scouting grades for each player, adjusted for certain additional factors.

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June 4, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Pairing and Parsing 1-7 Targets

4

Nick J. Faleris

Draft day is nearing, and draft strategies are finally taking shape.

Housekeeping
Today we finish up with our look at potential targets for the seventh overall pick before moving on to a broader examination of the draft class as a whole and, finally, putting in place our formal strategy for draft day. Before jumping in, let’s catch up with one significant update since our last entry.

Player: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University

Event: Yesterday, word leaked that two potential Day 1 arms, Jonathan Gray (RHP, Oklahoma) and Aaron Blair (RHP, Marshall) tested positive for Adderall—a banned substance under MLB guidelines.
Effect: Gray will be exposed to additional testing moving forward, but there is no substantive effect on his professional career. From a draft perspective, one could try to make the argument that this alters leverage in negotiations, but it’s not an argument I’d seriously entertain were I representing Gray. There is little reason to believe this is anything more than a single indiscretion to be learned from, rather than evidence of character issues or more concerning issues with controlled substances. Teams would have to convince Gray that he was in danger of falling out of the top five picks or so in order for this to play as a game-changer in negotiations, and that simply isn’t logical considering other options available and the stage in which we find ourselves in the draft cycle. Gray should have a good idea as to where he stands on the draft landscape, and orgs such as Minnesota, Cleveland, and Colorado have little reason to show disinterest in Gray now to the benefit of Houston. He’s still a Tier 1 target for our purposes, and still highly unlikely to reach us at 1-7.




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May 30, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Examining Kris Bryant

6

Nick J. Faleris

Kris Bryant seems to be a consensus top-three pick among most prospect gurus, but Nick doesn't agree.

Since we first set out talent tiers for players in consideration for selection with the seventh overall pick in the draft, some significant events have affected the stock of two of our potential targets. We have also seen reporting that this draft class contains a unanimous “top 3”—a triumvirate that does not match up with our tiering. We’ll quickly address the shakeup in the tiers before devoting the bulk of this entry to a thorough examination of Kris Bryant—the “unanimous elite talent” that didn’t make the cut for our Tier One grouping.

Tiering Updates
There are two players whose tiering requires re-examination due to recent events. Below is a summary of each, including the events that have transpired and the impact on the player’s value.


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May 17, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Profiling Prep Arms

0

Nick J. Faleris

Who are the top prep arms to target in the upcoming draft?

Thus far in our series, we have focused on the first selection in this year’s shadow draft, which will include a selection for each of the Red Sox’ first 15 draft picks (for a refresher on the series, review the earlier Dissecting the Draft pieces). In our last installment, we set our preference list for Tier One, which consists of the talents we rate higher than the typical talent we’d expect to have available to us at our draft slot (seventh overall).

Tier One
1. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University | Scouting Report
2. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University | Scouting Report
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Loganville, GA) | Scouting Report




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May 10, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Due Diligence

4

Nick J. Faleris

When a team is drafting, how does it distinguish which talents might be the most reasonable targets?

With our first-round targets broken out into three tiers, per our last installment of the Dissecting the Draft series, we are ready to start breaking down our decision-making tree, starting with Tier One. As a recap, here is where our tiers currently stand for our first pick in the draft (seventh overall), in each case in alphabetical order:

Tier One
1. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University | Scouting Report
2. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Loganville, GA) | Scouting Report
3. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University | Scouting Report




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May 6, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Identifying Our Tiers

4

Nick J. Faleris

In the latest installment of this series, Nick breaks down the 14 candidates for his seventh-overall selection into three groups to help clarify the decision-making process.

Introduction

We left off in our last installment by identifying 14 targets to consider for selection with our first pick (seventh overall) in our shadow draft:

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April 30, 2013 5:00 am

Dissecting the Draft: Introduction

15

Nick J. Faleris

The first installment of a new series, in which a member of our prospect team will step into the Red Sox' shoes and conduct a shadow draft.

Creating a Mechanism for Evaluation of Draft Strategy

Part of what drew me to Baseball Prospectus, other than my respect for Jason Parks and his vision of a scouting-department-style “Prospect Team,” was the allure of stepping into a ready-made readership eager and able to help me explore baseball on both a macro and micro level. As far as the draft is concerned, that means not only breaking down draft prospects from a scouting perspective on a player-by-player basis, but also working to understand what goes into formulating an overarching approach to player acquisition through the draft. This includes general strategies relating to draft acquisitions, as well as draft-class-specific game planning.

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