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Zach Crizer 

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08-18

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DFA Podcast: Ep. 24: A Weaver Farewell
by
R.J. Anderson, Zach Crizer and Shawn Brody

08-18

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3

Circle Change: The Best Failure in Baseball
by
Zach Crizer

08-11

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Circle Change: How Many Rings are the Astros Trying to Win?
by
Zach Crizer

07-31

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Circle Change: This Year's Hot Relievers, Next Year
by
Zach Crizer

07-27

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Transaction Analysis: Kansas City Buyers
by
Bryan Grosnick, Zach Crizer, Craig Goldstein and George Bissell

07-21

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10

Prospectus Roundtable: Should the Royals Buy or Sell?
by
Rob Mains, Ben Diamond, Craig Goldstein, Wilson Karaman, Matthew Trueblood and Zach Crizer

07-18

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Circle Change: Manny Machado's Missing Hits
by
Zach Crizer

07-14

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DFA Podcast: Ep. 16: Our First Big Move
by
Bryan Grosnick, Zach Crizer and Shawn Brody

07-11

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Circle Change: The Fate of the Unknown All-Star
by
Zach Crizer

06-28

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2

Circle Change: Freddie Freeman's Blank Lotto Ticket
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Zach Crizer

06-20

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Circle Change: Bronson Arroyo Forever
by
Zach Crizer

06-16

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DFA Podcast: Ep. 12: Somethin' Brewin'
by
R.J. Anderson, Zach Crizer and Shawn Brody

06-14

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3

Circle Change: Swing Away, My Large Adult Son
by
Zach Crizer

06-09

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DFA Podcast: Ep. 11: The Many Moves of Edwin Jackson
by
Bryan Grosnick, Zach Crizer and Shawn Brody

06-06

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Circle Change: Babe Bour
by
Zach Crizer

06-02

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Circle Change: Three Catchers Walk Into a Casino
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Zach Crizer

05-26

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Circle Change: Truth Comes to the Mound
by
Zach Crizer

05-18

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DFA Podcast: Ep. 7: The Spot Starter
by
Bryan Grosnick, Zach Crizer and Shawn Brody

05-12

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1

Circle Change: Reframing the Conversation on Framing
by
Zach Crizer

05-05

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Circle Change: Wil Myers' Life in the Fast Lane
by
Zach Crizer

04-27

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Circle Change: The Eric Thames Vision Quest
by
Zach Crizer

04-20

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Circle Change: Pico de Gallo?
by
Zach Crizer

04-12

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Circle Change: What Michael Pineda Can Learn From Off-Brand Michael Pineda
by
Zach Crizer

04-05

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Circle Change: Buster Posey, Remix Artist
by
Zach Crizer

03-29

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Circle Change: Daniel Murphy Raises the Ghost of an Idea
by
Zach Crizer

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On the 24th episode of the DFA podcast, R.J. and guest host Zach Crizer reflect on Jered Weaver's career and, most importantly, his impact on Jeff Sullivan's tweets. Then it's on to the moves of the past few days, including Chris Hatcher's move to Oakland and the Twins' gigantic new starting pitcher.

It's another episode of the DFA podcast! Hosts Bryan Grosnick (Baseball Prospectus) and R.J. Anderson (CBS Sports), plus producer Shawn Brody (Beyond the Box Score, BP Mets), are talking about all the transactions and roster moves that make MLB go. From trades and signings to callups and disabled list stints, DFA is here to provide analysis and commentary on all things baseball.

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Mike Trout is better than everyone at everything, even failure.

Sometime soon, Mike Trout will again etch his name atop one of those through age 20-something leaderboards—swallowing up another distinction like baseball prodigy kudzu. This one, though, isn’t going on his eventual Hall of Fame plaque. He’s seven strikeouts away from racking up his 856th K, which would surpass Justin Upton for the most by any hitter through his age-25 season.

Even while posting perhaps the most successful out-of-the-chute baseball career ever, Trout has experienced much failure. The circumstances of his existence—reaching and dominating the majors before his 20th birthday, being the obvious best player on the field, being fast, hitting for power in the 2010s—have conspired in such a way that the strikeouts have piled up despite his rates being below the contemporary league average.

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August 11, 2017 6:00 am

Circle Change: How Many Rings are the Astros Trying to Win?

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Zach Crizer

Houston did surprisingly little at the trade deadline, but will they regret it?

The blackboards, you’d imagine, all look the same. Maybe they’re buried in some dark corner of every spring training facility in Florida and Arizona. Maybe they pock the underbellies of rookie-ball parks. Like a scene out of a '90s movie about mischievous boarding school students, they are covered in a single line, repeated in the wearying handwriting of those submitting to the mantra: We’re taking it one game at a time.

Surely this is the only way a single thought could become so pervasive in the ballplayer and general Baseball Man culture—systematic indoctrination. And just as surely as that bit of language endures in the baseball-bred players and managers, it has become less resonant in increasingly Ivy League-educated front offices.

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July 31, 2017 6:00 am

Circle Change: This Year's Hot Relievers, Next Year

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Zach Crizer

Is Tommy Kahnle the next Grant Balfour or the next Michael Wuertz?

Without the browbeating effect of staring my own written words in the face—whoa, whoa, do you want to say this?—I occasionally release into the world a statement that is, let’s say, not wholly considered. So it was that I boldly questioned a friend—a Yankees fan—about his favorable evaluation of the recent trade for Tommy Kahnle.

The breakout White Sox reliever’s remaining team control may or may not have made him the most expensive part of the deal in which the Yankees also acquired David Robertson and Todd Frazier, while jettisoning human heart palpitation Tyler Clippard.

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San Diego is always selling, so Kansas City added three pitchers for what might be one last run.

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Go out on your collective shield or give a boost to the inevitable rebuilding process?

Kansas City is 47-47 and within two games of both first place in the AL Central and a Wild Card spot. But with BP pegging their playoff odds around 17 percent and much of their championship core set to become free agents after the season, the Royals have a tough decision to make before the trade deadline. Our roundtable debates the pros and cons of each side.

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Machado is still hitting the ball really, really hard, but is that enough?

Do you think Manny Machado and the Orioles are happy there isn’t a #narrative to go with the worst hitting season of his career? On one hand, no one is propagating wild theories that Joe Maddon broke him with some intentional walks. No one is whispering about mysterious maladies or off-field distractions. No, all they have is a .230/.296/.445 first-half line and assurances that Machado is hitting the ball hard. Really, really hard.

While that makes him a slam dunk buy-low option for your fantasy team, the uplifting outlook probably isn’t raising many spirits in the Orioles' front office—or in Machado’s camp either, for that matter. The team that could contend without starting pitching suddenly can’t, and now their golden parachute—a year-and-a-half of a bona fide superstar—is probably sequestered for the time being by the law against selling low. For Machado, his perplexing down season (a la Bryce Harper’s 2016) could be one calendar fresher in the minds of potential suitors.

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On the 16th episode of the DFA Podcast, Bryan, Zach Crizer, and Shawn Brody discuss the first blockbuster move of the podcast's history: the Jose Quintana trade! The guys share their diverse opinions on whether or not the Cubs or the Sox won the deal, and how soon the White Sox could compete.

It's Baseball Prospectus's newest podcast: DFA! Host Bryan Grosnick (Baseball Prospectus), co-host R.J. Anderson (CBS Sports), and producer Shawn Brody (Beyond the Box Score, BP Mets) are talking about all the transactions and roster moves that make MLB go. From trades and signings to callups and disabled list stints, DFA is here to provide analysis and commentary on all things baseball.

Read the full article...

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July 11, 2017 6:00 am

Circle Change: The Fate of the Unknown All-Star

0

Zach Crizer

Which of this year's All-Stars will be forgotten?

One year ago, when the All-Star game loped into the eighth inning, the National League team trailed 4-2, and then-Yankees terror Andrew Miller came in to face the third wave of Terry Collins’ squad. To spare you the mess of a Midsummer Classic box score: After two outs and two singles, it became apparent that the ultimate destination of the tying runner would be decided by Reds outfielder Adam Duvall and Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz.

Duvall was hitting .249 to that point in 2016—in his first sizeable stretch of major-league action after coming over from San Francisco in the Mike Leake trade—and getting on base at just a .288 clip. But (but!) he’d tallied 23 homers for a team that, by rule, needed an All-Star. When he stepped into the box, you could almost hear the chorus emanating from America’s armchairs. Adam Duvall? Who’s that?

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See that coconut over there?

Back in 1975, Joe Torre played out his last season as a third baseman, Pedro Guerrero toiled in the Dodgers’ farm system, and a researcher named Ellen J. Langer published a study that would become a staple of the as-yet-unpopularized field of behavioral economics.

In the study, researchers allotted one group of participants lottery tickets with pre-assigned numbers. They gave another group blank tickets, asking them to fill in the numbers themselves. Then, they attempted to buy the tickets back. The result, since replicated and disseminated in more readable forms by the work of Daniel Kahneman, revealed an illogical human bias: The participants who wrote down their own numbers were more reluctant to sell back their tickets—exhibiting far greater confidence in their choice (despite the absence of any reason to feel that way) and far more motivation to see it through than those who had their numbers handed down.

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Every major-league career path is unlikely. Some are unbelievable.

Let’s start here. In the now. After a shellacking at the hands of the Dodgers on Sunday, the ever-honest, 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo admitted that persistent shoulder pain might force him to call it a career.

The guitar-strumming beanpole who forced us to consider the term crafty righty has made a habit of outrunning the jaws of obsolescence. He’s been toughing out a return to the majors with the rebuilding Reds this year after completely missing the past two seasons due to injury (an absence that did not prevent him from being traded twice and signing two free agent deals).

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On the 12th episode of DFA, Zach Crizer's back to join R.J. in talking about the National League Central ... which of course means discussing the Brewers and their new load of upcoming talent.

It's Baseball Prospectus's newest podcast: DFA! Host Bryan Grosnick (Baseball Prospectus), co-host R.J. Anderson (CBS Sports), and producer Shawn Brody (Beyond the Box Score, BP Mets) are talking about all the transactions and roster moves that make MLB go. From trades and signings to callups and disabled list stints, DFA is here to provide analysis and commentary on all things baseball.

Read the full article...

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