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Will Carroll 

Will Carroll

Will Carroll wrote for Baseball Prospectus. He left in 2010.

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03-07

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Inside Tommy John Surgery
by
Will Carroll and Thomas Gorman

07-20

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: The Injury Nexus
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

09-29

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88

Under The Knife: Fade To Black Album
by
Will Carroll

09-27

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14

Under The Knife: A Small Part Of Tenth Inning
by
Will Carroll

09-24

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17

Under The Knife: Explaining The Life of a Medhead
by
Will Carroll

09-21

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15

Under The Knife: A Strain is a Tear
by
Will Carroll

09-20

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41

Under The Knife: Concussion Problem Worsens
by
Will Carroll

09-17

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13

Under The Knife: Is Ryan's Way Working?
by
Will Carroll

09-15

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8

Under The Knife: About Those Pitch Counts
by
Will Carroll

09-13

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5

Under The Knife: Not So Dangerous Times
by
Will Carroll

09-10

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7

Under The Knife: A Leg and a Prayer
by
Will Carroll

09-08

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15

Under The Knife: Before there was Tommy John
by
Will Carroll

09-06

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20

Under The Knife: A Difficult Task
by
Will Carroll

09-03

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15

Under The Knife: Progress at a Snail's Pace
by
Will Carroll

09-01

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51

Under The Knife: The Toughest Month for Injury News
by
Will Carroll

08-30

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27

Under The Knife: Looking for a Strasburg Scapegoat
by
Will Carroll

08-27

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42

Under The Knife: Surgery for Strasburg
by
Will Carroll

08-17

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17

Under The Knife: 998
by
Will Carroll

08-16

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17

Under The Knife: 997
by
Will Carroll

08-13

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21

Under The Knife: 996
by
Will Carroll

08-12

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7

BP Unfiltered: Will's Ballpark Tour
by
Will Carroll

08-11

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32

Under The Knife: Put Me In, Coach
by
Will Carroll

08-10

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13

Under The Knife: Back Home Again in Indiana
by
Will Carroll

08-06

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8

Under The Knife: 28 Hours to Texarkana
by
Will Carroll

08-04

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10

Under The Knife: Win One, Lose One
by
Will Carroll

08-03

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28

Under The Knife: On Will's Mind
by
Will Carroll

08-02

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22

Under The Knife: No Two Injuries are Alike
by
Will Carroll

07-28

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16

Under The Knife: To Be Determined
by
Will Carroll

07-27

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2

Under The Knife: The No Fun League?
by
Will Carroll

07-26

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11

Under The Knife: An Injury Stack Strikes the Tigers
by
Will Carroll

07-22

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9

Under The Knife: It's Strasmas in Cincinnati
by
Will Carroll

07-21

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10

BP Unfiltered: Video UTK for July 21
by
Will Carroll

07-20

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36

Under The Knife: A Case for Encyclopedia Brown
by
Will Carroll

07-19

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33

Under The Knife: Double Rainbow All the Way
by
Will Carroll

07-13

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14

Prospectus Q&A: Jeff Ma
by
Will Carroll

07-12

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9

Under The Knife: Hitting Pause
by
Will Carroll

07-08

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25

Under The Knife: Peavy's Unique Injury
by
Will Carroll

07-06

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16

Under The Knife: The All-Star Effect
by
Will Carroll

07-05

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17

Under The Knife: Reactivation
by
Will Carroll

06-30

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5

Top 10 Week: The Super Surgeons
by
Will Carroll

06-28

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25

Under The Knife: The Red Sox Report
by
Will Carroll

06-28

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12

Top 10 Week: General Manager Candidates
by
Will Carroll

06-24

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9

Under The Knife: Occam's Razor in Reverse
by
Will Carroll

06-23

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11

Under The Knife: Beltran's Clock Ready to Tick
by
Will Carroll

06-21

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18

Under The Knife: A Mixed Bag for the Rockies
by
Will Carroll

06-17

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16

Under The Knife: Peavy's shoulder comes up
by
Will Carroll

06-16

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22

Under The Knife: Gain a Pitcher, Lose a Pitcher
by
Will Carroll

06-15

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11

Under The Knife: Happy Returns?
by
Will Carroll

06-14

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33

Under The Knife: Monday Update
by
Will Carroll

06-11

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10

Under The Knife: Friday Update
by
Will Carroll

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August 4, 2010 10:20 am

Under The Knife: Win One, Lose One

10

Will Carroll

The Red Sox get Jacoby Ellsbury back but put Kevin Youkilis on the DL, along with other injury news from around the major leagues.

Kevin Youkilis (sprained thumb, ERD TBD)
Jacoby Ellsbury (fractured ribs, ERD 8/4)
If you'd asked me yesterday, I would have thought that Youkilis would be back in the lineup and that Carlos Santana would already have had surgery to repair his leg. Turns out, I was wrong on both. Youkilis is on the DL with a torn adductor muscle. This is one of the small muscles of the thumb that allows it to be such a useful digit. This particular muscle pulls the thumb in (adducts) toward the hand and is involved in the grip. When Youkilis got jammed and injured it, it was an unusual mechanism. Usually, this would be injured more in the way we saw with Chase Utley or David DeJesus, where there's a forced abduction (pulling away and back from the hand). In that case, the tendon is usually what goes, rather than the muscle itself. Because we don't know exactly where it happened and how, it's difficult to see exactly what happened that resulted in this injury... or is this the problem? Youkilis told NESN that this problem has been "going on for a while" so what we saw was the "last straw" rather than the real mechanism of injury. Youkilis is headed for tests that will determine if he needs surgery and how long he'll be out. 



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August 3, 2010 10:45 am

Under The Knife: On Will's Mind

28

Will Carroll

Some of the things Baseball Prospectus' resident injury expert ponders on a daily basis.

In the last 24 hours, I've had three men I really respect discuss three topics with me. One asked about pain and baseball. Another asked about the dangers of wall vs. player collisions. The last one asked about the cost of injuries. This is a bit of a change of pace for UTK, but it's all related, so I wanted to share the type of things I think about on a day-to-day basis.

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August 2, 2010 8:00 am

Under The Knife: No Two Injuries are Alike

22

Will Carroll

A reminder that, like snowflakes, every injury and rehab is different, along with injury news from around the major leagues.

Rehabbing an elbow is always a difficult balance, but in most situations, doctors will tell you that it's always better to try and rehab through something before having the surgery. A surgery, even something predictable like Tommy John, has a defined period of loss, currently between 10 and 12 months. Using the example of Twins reliever Pat Neshek, the lost time in rehab might look like a loss—Neshek even told BP's Dan Wade that it "was the worst thing I could do" because of perception and the machismo of the locker room—but if Neshek had been able to come back inside the 2008 or 2009 seasons, it would have been a big gain. You can use the same equation I gave you in regards to why the Mets didn't put Jose Reyes on the DL, though the numbers get a lot bigger and the risks are hardly as well known. For situations like Neshek's and the hundreds of others—no, that's not an exaggeration—that face elbow surgery at all levels each year, the "right decision" is a moving target. Is it just to get the player back in the quickest amount of time? That does play into it, but does that mean "rehab might get him back in three months or might extend him out if surgery is needed"?

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July 28, 2010 11:30 am

Under The Knife: To Be Determined

16

Will Carroll

It's too early to tell exactly what course the Nationals will take with Stephen Strasburg and his inflamed shoulder, along with other injury news.

Stephen Strasburg (inflamed shoulder, ERD TBD)
As regular readers will notice, I usually take one night a week off. To you, it's days but I write this the night before, firming up the details the morning it's published based on how players respond the next day. Trainers love getting players in early to assess how the injury progressed overnight. I was thinking that yesterday would have been a good night but then... no. It started just as I got home for dinner. My phone dinged about 30 times in the space of a minute and no, that's no exaggeration. Stephen Strasburg had been pulled from his start. Early word was that he was pulled by GM Mike Rizzo as a precaution, something Rizzo would later confirm, showing just how closely Strasburg is being monitored. The word was that Strasburg had difficulty getting loose in the bullpen and would be sent for images to determine what was going on. While they're often called precautionary, no MRI really is. Teams are still cheap enough that they won't do them for just anything, even for Strasburg. Reports are that the results showed minor inflammation in the shoulder, but no real specifics. The concerns here are where the inflammation is and what caused it, a Watergate-ian construct that Washingtonians will appreciate. Expect the Nationals to be somewhere far north of cautious with this, with the "worst case" being a shutdown for the season. We should know more in a couple days, when Strasburg will be due for his throw day. Even that's a question at this stage.


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July 27, 2010 11:14 am

Under The Knife: The No Fun League?

2

Will Carroll

The Fish are a man down after post-game hijinks, along with other injury news from around the majors.

Chris Coghlan (torn meniscus, ERD 9/30)
Between Kendry Morales and now Coghlan, post-game celebrations might get banned this year. Coghlan had an MRI yesterday, and reports vary on what was injured. Some say that it showed a sprained MCL in his knee while most, including MLB.com, say that there's a meniscal tear. Fact is, it's likely to be both. It's said to be the result of a "pieing" on Sunday. Coghlan snuck up behind Wes Helms and got him with the shaving cream to celebrate Helms' game winning hit, but somehow torqued his knee and sprained the ligament. Coghlan heads to the DL, but there's no word yet on surgery. There's no word on how significant the sprain is (if it exists), but in most cases, the MCL isn't repaired surgically even if it's ruptured, so that shouldn't affect the timing. Reports have Coghlan out for eight weeks, which would in essence end his season, but that's the high end of the estimates. Coghlan will immediately start a rehab program, and the Marlins trainers will start looking for a brace that will protect Coghlan's knee. The Marlins' slogan of "Serious Fun" has ended up a serious injury.


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July 26, 2010 8:00 am

Under The Knife: An Injury Stack Strikes the Tigers

11

Will Carroll

Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen both go down for a team in the AL Central race, along with other injury news from around the majors.

Magglio Ordonez (fractured ankle, ERD 9/15)
The interesting part of the injury to Ordonez is less about the injury itself, but the ankle problems that he'd been dealing with in the week leading up to his traumatic fracture. Ordonez had a minor injury to the ankle, reported as a sprain, that was limiting him to DH. Could the two injuries be related? It's impossible to say, even now, but traumatic fractures are seldom a cascade's result. It's possible that Ordonez's ankle might have been weakened to the point where the fracture happened, when if he'd been completely healthy, it might have been more stable or the forces distributed in a different, possibly less damaging way. While it's a nice game of what if, the Tigers have to deal with what is. Ordonez's fracture has a wide recovery window based on what in fact is fractured. At a six-to-eight-week timeline, there's a couple possibilities, with the most likely being a distal fracture of the tibia or fibula. Assuming a normal healing period, Ordonez should be able to come back without significant consequences. If this slides towards the end of the timeline, Ordonez won't be able to get a rehab assignment in, which could be an issue. It's possible, even likely, that Ordonez returns this year, though the Tigers'status as a contender nearer that date will determine whether he'll be needed.


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July 22, 2010 10:46 am

Under The Knife: It's Strasmas in Cincinnati

9

Will Carroll

Seeing the Nats phenom up close, plus news on the injury beat from around the majors.

From the stands, 98 doesn't look that much different than 89. That was the difference between Stephen Strasburg and Bronson Arroyo. To the hitters, it was a lot different. I sat in the stands, rather than the press box, because I wanted to get as close as I could without getting too close to the $250 scout seats. (That's a good thing, since Pete Rose was attending the game.) Strasburg's delivery is easy. In warmups, there are some jumps to it, things that you notice. I think his timing is just off a bit when he slows things down. The foot strikes a little bit before the elbow is in position, but that straightens out once he turns the dial up. Strasburg was living at 98 for the first few innings, but as he sweated through jerseys, he lost some, ending at 95 as his pitch count neared 100.

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Will Carroll live on tape!

It's time for little experiment, a video version of Under The Knife by our resident injury expert Will Carroll. Please take a look and tell us what you think.

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July 20, 2010 10:05 am

Under The Knife: A Case for Encyclopedia Brown

36

Will Carroll

Our medical detective explains why a American Orthapaedic Society for Sports Medicine survey skews injury figures, along med news from around the majors.

Sometimes, things hide in plain sight. Do you remember those Encyclopedia Brown stories from about fourth grade? The brainy kid would solve the mystery inside of 10 pages, always in some sharp way. Put on your Encyclopedia Brown hat, because you're going to solve a mystery. Last week, a major study was published at the annual conference of the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine that got quite a bit of publicity. The money line from the study is that "pitchers are 34 percent more likely to be injured than fielders" and that "77 percent of all injuries to pitchers happen before the All-Star Game." The first seems like common sense, especially in this era. The second, the 77 percent, is wrong. It's correct, yes, but there's a very apparent reason. Think about it and I'll give you the answer in just a bit.

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July 19, 2010 8:00 am

Under The Knife: Double Rainbow All the Way

33

Will Carroll

The Mets' medical staff has the best understanding of Jose Reyes, along with other injury news from around the majors.

Jose Reyes (strained oblique, ERD 7/19)
Everyone’s up in arms over Reyes being out for the Mets, but there’s a reason. Any oblique strain is a tough read, but assuming that those of us out here—especially the more paranoid Mets fans out there, some of whom couldn’t think their way out of a paper bag—have better knowledge. So let’s start with that. As far as last year, it was fluke, and let’s give Mets athletic trainer Ray Ramirez and orthopedist David Altchek the benefit of the doubt. There’s also an equation, one that’s overly simplified, that lets you figure this out for yourself. The base of it is MLVr, a stat that gives us a per-game value for every player:


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One of the subjects of the movie 21 discusses his upcoming book, The House Advantage, and incorporating statistics into life.

Jeff Ma is one of the few people who had a movie made about part of his life, and yet remains much more interesting than the character that Hollywood invented. He was one of the "MIT Blackjack Team" portrayed in the movie 21 and in Ben Mezrich's book Bringing Down The House. He started ProTrade and Citizen Sports, which was sold to Yahoo last year. Now, he's brought all of his background and love for sports into a new book, The House Advantage.

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July 12, 2010 12:24 pm

Under The Knife: Hitting Pause

9

Will Carroll

The saga of Jacoby Ellsbury continues, plus updates on Peavy, Greinke, and more heading into the All-Star break.

Jacoby Ellsbury (fractured ribs, TBD)
Ellsbury's notes got as much news as his ribs over the weekend. As he went through his very awkward press conference, Ellsbury showed that he was way off the pages of the Red Sox' songbook. Ellsbury took the time to break down the timeline of his fractured ribs and associated injuries, making sure that it was clear along the way that he thought the Red Sox had dropped the ball. Shortly after, Kevin Youkilis put on record what many other Red Sox are apparently thinking-that Ellsbury was getting the "bad teammate" vibe for not staying with the team and for speaking against the Red Sox medical staff. Ellsbury said many things, but the timeline for his return to the Sox still remains unclear. The strained lat and intracostal that he disclosed give us nothing more to go on. For now, he'll head down to the spring training facility in Ft. Myers. This remains a pain tolerance issue, and several weeks away from the team don't seem to have cleared that up. One source wondered if Ellsbury would be back in time for the Sox to put him up for trade, saying, "he's got to go". This will definitely be a test for the field staff and 'clubhouse leadership' as much as the medical staff.


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