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Tommy Bennett 

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02-11

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The BP Wayback Machine: Arbitration Negotiations
by
Tommy Bennett

11-01

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The BP Wayback Machine: What Makes a Good World Series?
by
Tommy Bennett

04-26

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8

Expanded Horizons: An Hour with Marvin Miller
by
Tommy Bennett

08-10

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6

Expanded Horizons: Anonymastros
by
Tommy Bennett

07-27

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Expanded Horizons: The Mystery of Jered Weaver
by
Tommy Bennett

07-19

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Expanded Horizons: What's it Thome?
by
Tommy Bennett

07-15

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Expanded Horizons: No Walk in the Park
by
Tommy Bennett

06-28

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Prospectus Hit List: NL: Rising to the Top in Cream City
by
Tommy Bennett

06-20

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Prospectus Hit List: AL: Sox Hanging On
by
Tommy Bennett

06-14

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Prospectus Hit List: NL: Stellar Pitching
by
Tommy Bennett

06-06

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Prospectus Hit List: AL: The Colon Train Chugs Along
by
Tommy Bennett

05-30

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Prospectus Hit List: AL: The Cream Rises
by
Tommy Bennett

05-24

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5

Prospectus Hit List: St. Louis Supreme
by
Tommy Bennett

05-16

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Prospectus Hit List: Indian Spring
by
Tommy Bennett

05-10

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3

Prospectus Hit List: Beasts of the East
by
Tommy Bennett

05-06

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26

Expanded Horizons: Get it While it's Hot
by
Tommy Bennett

05-02

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1

Prospectus Hit List: It's 1998 All Over Again
by
Tommy Bennett

04-26

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9

Prospectus Hit List: Of Phils and Fish
by
Tommy Bennett

04-22

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48

Expanded Horizons: Eight, Ten, Here We Go Again
by
Tommy Bennett

04-18

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Prospectus Hit List: Cleveland Rocks
by
Tommy Bennett

04-15

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5

Expanded Horizons: Relying on Relievers
by
Tommy Bennett

04-12

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3

Prospectus Hit List: Get Your Phils
by
Tommy Bennett

03-28

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18

Prospectus Hit List: AL Pre-Season Hit List
by
Tommy Bennett

03-28

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7

Expanded Horizons: Diversifying Doug Melvin
by
Tommy Bennett

03-07

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10

Expanded Horizons: Jay Another Day
by
Tommy Bennett

02-28

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9

Expanded Horizons: Quantifying Hope
by
Tommy Bennett

02-18

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12

Expanded Horizons: Journey to the Center of the Worth
by
Tommy Bennett

02-15

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35

Prospectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, NL Edition
by
Tommy Bennett

02-11

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16

Expanded Horizons: Pujols Plays His Cards
by
Tommy Bennett

02-05

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5

No Pepper: Other Outliers
by
Tommy Bennett

02-04

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10

Expanded Horizons: The Night Before PECOTA Christmas
by
Tommy Bennett

01-26

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6

Expanded Horizons: No One Man Should have All that Glower
by
Tommy Bennett

01-19

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1

Expanded Horizons: A Dominican Adventure
by
Tommy Bennett

01-12

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18

Expanded Horizons: White Elephants
by
Tommy Bennett

12-23

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6

Expanded Horizons: Just Stick to the Plan
by
Tommy Bennett

11-22

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10

GM for a Day: Texas Rangers
by
Tommy Bennett

11-03

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GM for a Day: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
by
Tommy Bennett

11-02

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15

World Series Prospectus: What Makes a Good World Series?
by
Tommy Bennett

10-26

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9

Expanded Horizons: Lessons from the Flags
by
Tommy Bennett

10-22

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23

Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five
by
Tommy Bennett

10-21

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GM for a Day: Cleveland Indians
by
Tommy Bennett

10-12

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Expanded Horizons: Brooks Conrad
by
Tommy Bennett

10-06

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Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Preview: Giants vs. Braves
by
Tommy Bennett

09-28

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5

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Los Angeles Angels
by
Tommy Bennett, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

09-22

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Kiss'Em Goodbye: Detroit Tigers
by
Tommy Bennett, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

09-21

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12

Expanded Horizons: The Great NL West race
by
Tommy Bennett

09-16

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6

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Kansas City Royals
by
Tommy Bennett, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

09-14

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3

Expanded Horizons: Don't Call It a Comeback
by
Tommy Bennett

09-07

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Expanded Horizons: Flooded with Choices
by
Tommy Bennett

08-31

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Expanded Horizons: Understanding Post-season Odds
by
Tommy Bennett

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March 7, 2011 9:00 am

Expanded Horizons: Jay Another Day

10

Tommy Bennett

Toronto fans wish the Blue Jay Way wouldn't be long, but can the team be blamed for bowing out of the ultra-competitive AL East?

How do GMs of 85-win teams usually go about their offseasons? Most folks, not just major-league front-office executives, smell blood in the water and position themselves for the kill. The natural—and here I mean to evoke the ruthlessness of the Serengeti—reaction to the just-missed-it is the try-try-again. I take this phenomenon to be the primary explanation of, among other things: the Buffalo Bills of the 1990s; William Jennings Bryan; and the modern popularity of golf.

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February 28, 2011 9:00 am

Expanded Horizons: Quantifying Hope

9

Tommy Bennett

Is it true that every team has a shot this Spring?

I’m anxious to see how it all blooms together.” —Astros General Manager Ed Wade

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February 18, 2011 1:34 am

Expanded Horizons: Journey to the Center of the Worth

12

Tommy Bennett

Methodological musings on the nature of stolen base runs.

Baserunning is the neglected stepsister of offense. It tends not to be well correlated with metrics that evaluate hitting performance, and indeed is often more likely to be associated with defense. The common intuition that teams that play good defense tend to run the bases well to boot is corroborated by the data, which makes sense, given that speed plays an important role in both pursuits. The top ten baserunners in baseball by BRR are all considered above average defenders, and each plays—or is capable of playing—an up-the-middle position. At the same time, only Carl Crawford among them is considered a great hitter, and a couple of them (Emilio Bonifacio, I’m looking at you) are downright dreadful. In other words, baserunning is one of those dusty backwaters of analysis that continually confounds expectations.

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February 15, 2011 6:22 am

Prospectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, NL Edition

35

Tommy Bennett

The Brewers score a pair of aces, while the Phils are runners-up for their Cliff Lee do-over.

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How much stock should we place in Prince Albert's ultimatum?

With less than a week to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, an annual ritual nears its final stages. Players with one year remaining on their contracts and the teams that employ them have been playing out the largely predetermined roles of Blue-footed Boobies in their mating dance. Teams hope to lock up their players beyond the upcoming season at a discounted rate. Players hope to guarantee a certain minimum level of income for the future without giving away too much of the money they could stand to earn on the free-agent market.

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February 5, 2011 11:56 am

No Pepper: Other Outliers

5

Tommy Bennett

A look at baserunning outliers in continuing anticipation of the release of the PECOTA spreadsheets.

We remain in breathless anticipation for the release of the PECOTA spreadsheets, so let us continue to revel in the odd outliers. On Friday, I looked at relief pitcher rate statistics. These are, by their very nature, subject to a relatively high level of noise. That makes it possible for otherwise very good players, like Carlos Marmol, to put up the equivalent of otherworldly results. But the bullpen is not the only place you can find outliers.

Even on offense, there is the possibility that a single player will run out in front of the curve. And who better to do so than that odd blip in the newspaper headlines (circa 2009), Emilio Bonifacio? Though his feeble bat does not afford him many opportunities to let loose on the base paths, when he does he is more than capable of doing damage. Consider the following plot:

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Taking a look back at some of last year's statistical standouts while waiting for 2011 projections to be unwrapped.

This is a story about the blips on the right-hand side of a kernel density plot. Well, no, that isn’t true, really. It’s a story about Christmas Eve. It’s about the ecstasy of unbridled expectation. Or maybe it’s about Carlos Marmol and Rafael Betancourt.

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January 26, 2011 2:21 am

Expanded Horizons: No One Man Should have All that Glower

6

Tommy Bennett

Do teams tend to overvalue the man charged with nailing down saves?

Did you hear the one about the relief pitcher at the bar the night before the game? (One?) The guy is putting back his fair share of adult beverages when someone at the bar recognizes him.

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The differences between a major-league game and the Dominican winter league games aren't that large.

The Cradle of Torpedo Boats

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January 12, 2011 9:00 am

Expanded Horizons: White Elephants

18

Tommy Bennett

The Athletics' narrative is no longer tied to Moneyball.

‘I said we could have everything.’
‘We can have everything.’
‘No, we can’t.’
‘We can have the whole world.’
‘No, we can’t.’
‘We can go everywhere.’
‘No, we can’t. It isn’t ours any more.’
‘It’s ours.’
‘No, it isn’t. And once they take it away, you never get it back.’
‘But they haven’t taken it away.’
‘We’ll wait and see.’
—Ernest Hemingway, “Hills Like White Elephants












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December 23, 2010 1:45 pm

Expanded Horizons: Just Stick to the Plan

6

Tommy Bennett

Staying the course remains the Braves' best option, even after the Phillies' signing of Cliff Lee.

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have grabbed most of the NL East headlines. Their signing of Cliff Lee was undoubtedly the biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason. But the attention paid to the newest member of Philadelphia's rotation has obscured the potential that the Atlanta Braves will improve on their strong 2010 season. Winners of 91 games last season, the Braves sport a young offensive core, increased roster flexibility and at least six viable starting pitchers. Between the lure of the wild card and the uncertainty of the 162-game season, the Braves have at least two good reasons to resist the temptation to overreact and instead focus on adhering to the plan that got them to the postseason last year.

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November 22, 2010 9:00 am

GM for a Day: Texas Rangers

10

Tommy Bennett

Keeping the Rangers atop the American League will require a major investment.

Today I borrow the keys to Jon Daniels’ golf cart and take it for a ride in an attempt to convince the Ryan-Greenberg ownership group to open the purse strings just wide enough to land an ace. I’m talking about Cliff Lee, the most valuable free agent this year.

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