Baserunning is the neglected stepsister of offense. It tends not to be well correlated with metrics that evaluate hitting performance, and indeed is often more likely to be associated with defense. The common intuition that teams that play good defense tend to run the bases well to boot is corroborated by the data, which makes sense, given that speed plays an important role in both pursuits. The top ten baserunners in baseball by BRR are all considered above average defenders, and each plays—or is capable of playing—an up-the-middle position. At the same time, only Carl Crawford among them is considered a great hitter, and a couple of them (Emilio Bonifacio, I’m looking at you) are downright dreadful. In other words, baserunning is one of those dusty backwaters of analysis that continually confounds expectations.

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With less than a week to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, an annual ritual nears its final stages. Players with one year remaining on their contracts and the teams that employ them have been playing out the largely predetermined roles of Blue-footed Boobies in their mating dance. Teams hope to lock up their players beyond the upcoming season at a discounted rate. Players hope to guarantee a certain minimum level of income for the future without giving away too much of the money they could stand to earn on the free-agent market.

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We remain in breathless anticipation for the release of the PECOTA spreadsheets, so let us continue to revel in the odd outliers. On Friday, I looked at relief pitcher rate statistics. These are, by their very nature, subject to a relatively high level of noise. That makes it possible for otherwise very good players, like Carlos Marmol, to put up the equivalent of otherworldly results. But the bullpen is not the only place you can find outliers.

Even on offense, there is the possibility that a single player will run out in front of the curve. And who better to do so than that odd blip in the newspaper headlines (circa 2009), Emilio Bonifacio? Though his feeble bat does not afford him many opportunities to let loose on the base paths, when he does he is more than capable of doing damage. Consider the following plot:

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This is a story about the blips on the right-hand side of a kernel density plot. Well, no, that isn’t true, really. It’s a story about Christmas Eve. It’s about the ecstasy of unbridled expectation. Or maybe it’s about Carlos Marmol and Rafael Betancourt.

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Did you hear the one about the relief pitcher at the bar the night before the game? (One?) The guy is putting back his fair share of adult beverages when someone at the bar recognizes him.

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The Cradle of Torpedo Boats

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‘I said we could have everything.’
‘We can have everything.’
‘No, we can’t.’
‘We can have the whole world.’
‘No, we can’t.’
‘We can go everywhere.’
‘No, we can’t. It isn’t ours any more.’
‘It’s ours.’
‘No, it isn’t. And once they take it away, you never get it back.’
‘But they haven’t taken it away.’
‘We’ll wait and see.’
—Ernest Hemingway, “Hills Like White Elephants”

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This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have grabbed most of the NL East headlines. Their signing of Cliff Lee was undoubtedly the biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason. But the attention paid to the newest member of Philadelphia's rotation has obscured the potential that the Atlanta Braves will improve on their strong 2010 season. Winners of 91 games last season, the Braves sport a young offensive core, increased roster flexibility and at least six viable starting pitchers. Between the lure of the wild card and the uncertainty of the 162-game season, the Braves have at least two good reasons to resist the temptation to overreact and instead focus on adhering to the plan that got them to the postseason last year.

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Today I borrow the keys to Jon Daniels’ golf cart and take it for a ride in an attempt to convince the Ryan-Greenberg ownership group to open the purse strings just wide enough to land an ace. I’m talking about Cliff Lee, the most valuable free agent this year.

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Can—or maybe how will—the Angels keep outperforming their expected records? Is this the year Brandon Wood finally puts it all together in the majors? And how about that farm system?! Temper caution about former Golden Spikes winner Jered Weaver, though; he’s nothing more than a slightly above-average innings eater.

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At some point during Derek Holland’s third batter faced in Game Two of the World Series, I realized that the level of play on display was not especially high. Holland had come into a relatively tight game—which the Rangers trailed by just two runs—and promptly doused the infield with gasoline. Theretofore entrusted to the right hand of Darren O’Day, the bottom of the eighth had gone like this: K, K, 1B. Holland, called upon by Ron Washington to record a solitary out against a lefty—the one thing you ought to be able to count on in a lefty reliever—walked Nate Schierholtz on four pitches. Then he walked Cody Ross on four pitches. Then Aubrey Huff on five.

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