Sam Miller is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus. He has written for two Baseball Prospectus annuals and co-edited the 2014 and 2015 editions. He also co-hosts, with Ben Lindbergh, the Effectively Wild podcast, and is a contributor to ESPN the Magazine.
Search Articles by Sam Miller
All Blogs (including podcasts) Select a blog All Podcasts Analyze This B-Warned Baseball Prospectus Book News Baseball Prospectus Press Release Between The Numbers BP Announcements BP Beta Blog BP Daily Podcast BP Fantasy Podcast BP Job Postings BP on SiriusXM BP Podcast BP Unfiltered Collateral Damage Fantasy Beat Fantasy Hour Flags Fly Forever Podcast Fringe Average Podcast From the Editor's Desk Future Shock Blog Inside The Park Blog Joe's Blog Limited Range Podcast Minor Issues Minor League Update No Pepper One-Hoppers Raw Projection Tater Trot Tracker The BP First Take The Guidance Counselor The Wayback Blog TINO (There Is No Offseason) TINSTAAPP Transaction Analysis Blog Wezen-Ball What You Missed Winter Meetings You Can Blog It Up Active Columns Select a column 108 Stitches 2015 Prospects 6-4-3 Advance Scouting Series Ahead in the Count Aim For The Head All-Star Futures Game All-Star Game All-Star Game Preview All-Star Home Run Derby An Agent's Take Another Look Arbitration Showdown Arizona Fall League Recap Baseball ProGUESTus Baseball Prospectus Basics Baseball Prospectus News Baseball Therapy Bates' Dugout Motel Behind the Curtain Bizball BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft Breaking Balls Bullpen Report Campus Notes Changing Speeds Closer Report Cold Takes Collateral Damage Collateral Damage Daily Contractual Matters Covert OPS Daily League Strategy Daily Roundup Daisy Cutter Deep Impact Deep League Report Dissecting the Draft Divide and Conquer, AL Central Divide and Conquer, AL East Divide and Conquer, NL Central Divide and Conquer, NL East Divide and Conquer, NL West Doctoring The Numbers Don't Believe the Hype Draft Ten Pack Dynasty Dynamics Dynasty League Positional Rankings Every Team's Moneyball Everyone's Perfect Everything You Could Have Learned This Week Expanded Horizons Expert FAAB Review Expert League Auction Recap Expert League Draft Recap Eyewitness Accounts Fantasy Auction Values Fantasy Bargains and Busts Fantasy Beat Fantasy Focus Fantasy Fool's Gold Fantasy Freestyle Fantasy Infographic Fantasy Mailbag Fantasy Players to Avoid Fantasy Players to Target Fantasy Rounders Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner Fantasy Team Preview Fantasy Three-Year Projections Fantasy Tiered Rankings Feature Focus Field Generals Five to Watch Free Agent Watch From The Mailbag Future Shock Game Reaction Get to Know Glass Cuts Diamond Going Yard Graphical Fantasy Rankings Grumblings from a Surly Sabermetrician Head Games Heartburn Hardball Hot Stove Scouting Report In A Pickle Inside The Park Interleague Report Internet Baseball Awards Lies, Damned Lies Manufactured Runs Memorial Day Remembrance Mid-season Prescriptions Minor Issues Minor League Update MLBDepthCharts Monday Morning Ten Pack Moonshot My Model Portfolio New Arms Ninety Percent Mental Notes About Baseball Notes from the Field On the Beat One Move Out of Left Field Overthinking It Painting the Black Pebble Hunting Perfect Game Presents Pitcher Profile PITCHf/x Mailbag PITCHf/x Profile Pitching Backward Player Profile Playoff Odds Update Playoff Prospectus Pre-Season Positional Rankings Preseason Value Picks Prospect Debate Prospect Profile Prospect Push Prospects Will Break Your Heart Prospectus Feature Prospectus Game of the Week Prospectus Hit and Run Prospectus Hit List Prospectus Perspective Prospectus Playoff Quickie Prospectus Preview Prospectus Profile Prospectus Q&A Prospectus Review Prospectus Roundtable Prospectus Today Punk Hits Purpose Pitches Raising Aces Rany On The Royals Reintroducing PECOTA Release Points Research Mailbag Resident Fantasy Genius Retrospective Player Valuation Reworking WARP Roto Restart Rubbing Mud Rumor Roundup Scouting the Draft Seidnotes Skewed Left Sobsequy Some Projection Left Spinning Yarn Spitballing Sporer Report State of the Position Tale of the Tape Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition Team Health Reports Team Injury Projection The -Only League Landscape The Adjuster The Asian Equation The BP Broadside The BP Trading Post The BP Wayback Machine The Buyer's Guide The Call-Up The Column to Be Named Later The Daily Prospectus The Darkhorses The Great Debaters The Jong Show The Keeper Reaper The Lineup Card The Other 15 Percent The Payoff Pitch The Platoon Advantage The Process The Prospectus Hit List The Quinton The Stash List The Stats Go Marching In The View from the Loge Level The Week in Quotes They Hold No Quarter This is Not Your Father's Baseball Road Trip Tools of Ignorance Top 10 Week Top Tools Transaction Analysis TTO Scoresheet Podcast Under The Knife UTK Special Value Picks Weekly Planner Weekly Wrap West Coast By Us Western Front Wezen-Ball Extra What Scouts Are Saying What You Need to Know Working the Count You Could Look It Up Youth Movement Authors Select an author Peter Abraham Jim Albert R.J. Anderson Mark Anderson Cee Angi Bradley Ankrom Jorge Arangure Jr. Robert Arthur Nick Ashbourne Julien Assouline Nick Bacarella Bill Baer Tim Baffoe Jim Baker Pete Barrett Michael Bates Michael Baumann Stephani Bee Jesse Behr Hudson Belinsky Tommy Bennett Jonah Birenbaum George Bissell Tucker Blair Riley Breckenridge J.P. Breen Tim Britton Dan Brooks Craig Brown Maury Brown David Brown Evan Brunell Jon Bruschke William Burke Matthew Callan Marc Carig Russell A. Carleton Will Carroll Ben Carsley Derek Carty Clint Chisam Jason Churchill Michael Clair Ben Cohen Jason Cole Jason Collette Tim Collins Matt Collins John Coppolella Christopher Crawford Keith Cromer Mike Curto Jeff Dahn Clay Davenport Corey Dawkins Zach Day Rocco DeMaro Neil deMause Austin Diamond Ryan Divish Bradford Doolittle Patrick Dubuque Kenny Ducey Patrick Ebert John Erhardt Jeff Euston Dan Evans Sarah Evans Nick J. Faleris BP Fantasy Staff Mike Fast Hunter Felt Chad Finn Adam Foster Dan Fox Ian Frazer Eugene Freedman Jeffrey A. Friedman Ken Funck Iain Fyffe Brent S. Gambill Perfect Game Cat Garcia Eriq Gardner Jim Gardner Brendan Gawlowski Maiya Gessling Mike Gianella Craig Glaser Rebecca Glass Conor Glassey Aaron Gleeman Clark Goble Todd Gold Mitch Goldich Steven Goldman Kevin Goldstein Craig Goldstein Jordan Gorosh Larry Granillo Garrett Greeby Morris Greenberg Jeremy Greenhouse Brian Gunn Parker Hageman Jonathan Hale Joe Hamrahi Brandon Heipp Bob Hertzel Josh Herzenberg Shawn Hoffman Andrew Hopen Tony Horwitz Gary Huckabay Steven Jacobson Derek Jacques Jay Jaffe J.J. Jansons Rany Jazayerli Max Jensen Michael Jong Jonathan Judge Christina Kahrl Sky Kalkman Alex Kantecki Gabe Kapler Wilson Karaman Len Kasper King Kaufman Jeff Kensrud Jonah Keri Kevin Kerrane Daniel Kim Chris King Tim Kniker Eric Knott Andrew Koo Matthew Kory Jesse Krailler Joshua Kusnick Pat Lackey Eric Lang Will Larson David Laurila Keith Law David Lee Ian Lefkowitz Zachary Levine Ryan Lind Ben Lindbergh M.J. Lloyd Jeff Long Lee Lowenfish Graham MacAree Daniel Mack Brian MacPherson Dan Malkiel Tim Malone Tim Malone Elliot Mann Max Marchi Jason Martinez Leo Martinic Gregory J. Matthews Andy McCullough Kiley McDaniel Rob McQuown Andrew Mearns Howard Megdal Chris Mellen Dan Mennella Dave Metz Ian Miller Sam Miller Jake Mintz Jeff Moore Jack Moore Chad Moriyama Kate Morrison Ryan Morrison Zach Mortimer Chris Mosch David Murphy Ben Murphy Alan M. Nathan C.J. Nitkowski Marc Normandin Josh Norris Josh Paley Dustin Palmateer Pete Palmer Doug Pappas Jason Paré Ryan Parker Bill Parker Jason Parks John Paschal Harry Pavlidis Dave Pease Jeff Pease Andrew Pentis John Perrotto Mike Petriello Evan Petty Nick Piecoro Frankie Piliere David Pinto Lewie Pollis Jeff Polman Satchel Price BP Prospect Staff Baseball Prospectus Ethan Purser Jeff Quinton David Raposa Daniel Rathman David Rawnsley Dave Raymond Kristy Robinson Matthew Rocco Chris Rodriguez Jon Roegele Kendall Rogers David Roher C. Trent Rosecrans David Roth Andrew Rothstein Dan Rozenson Mauricio Rubio Jeff Sackmann Drew Samuelson Bret Sayre Larry Schechter Tom Scocca BP Scoresheet Experts Steffan Segui Eric Seidman Timo Seppa Ron Shah Sahadev Sharma Joe Sheehan Josh Shepardson Jon Shepherd Tom Shieber Nick Shlain Jordan Shusterman Nate Silver Allan Simpson Paul Singman Alex Skillin Al Skorupa Bryan Smith Lloyd Smith Sean Smith Adam Sobsey Emma Span Alex Speier Paul Sporer Chris St. John BP Staff Tim Steggall Michael Street Brandon Stroud Dave Studeman Matt Sussman Daron Sutton Matt Swartz Cecilia M. Tan BP Stats Team Doug Thorburn Dash Treyhorn Matthew Trueblood Dan Turkenkopf Rob Vollman Stuart Wallace Jim Walsh Rob Warmowski Brandon Warne Rian Watt Matt Welch Greg Wellemeyer Nick Wheatley-Schaller Kevin Whitaker Rob Willer Charlie Wilmoth CJ Wittmann Brad Wochomurka Jason Wojciechowski Will Woods Noah Woodward Keith Woolner Kathy Woolner Josh Worn Miles Wray Colin Wyers Geoff Young Colin Young Jonathan Zeller Derek Zumsteg Article Types Select an article type Free Articles Fantasy Articles Premium Articles All BP Articles Archives
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 700: Sabermetrics, Australia-Style by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 699: Radio Producers, Cycles, and Dave Stewart Don't Make Sense by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 698: The Diamondbacks Do it Again by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 697: The David Price Trade Revisited by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 696: Listener Emails: The Hacking, Hanley, and Position Player Pitching Edition by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 695: The Cardinals Face the Feds by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 694: Adjudicating an All-Royals All-Star Game by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 693: Dugout Etiquette, Warm-Up WAR, and Other Thrilling Emails by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 692: The Year of Top Prospects by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 691: Chris Long on Analytics' Role in the Draft Room by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 690: Probably Premature Judgments About Offseason Trades, Part Two by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 689: Reluctantly Trashing the Twins by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 688: Success Without Strikeouts, Strange-Looking Lineups, and Other Emails by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
6 The BP Wayback Machine: What It Means to Have the Best Farm System in Baseball by Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 687: Probably Premature Judgments About Offseason Trades by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 686: Catcher Game-Calling, Now Slightly Less Mysterious by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 685: A Couple Complaints About Replays and Appeals by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 684: Pitchers and Pine Tar, the Meat of the Order, and Throwing Back Baseballs by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
2 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 683: The Almost Inexplicable Stephen Strasburg by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 682: How Bryce Harper Broke Out by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 681: Marlins Madness, Sabermetric Milestones, and Other Emails by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 680: Travis Sawchik on the Pirates and Big Data Baseball by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
23 Baseball's Seven Wonders by Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 679: The Barry Bonds Collusion Case by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 678: Early Statcast Leaders, Laggards, and Lessons by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 677: Pulling Corey Kluber by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
3 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 676: Questions You Asked Us to Answer by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
2 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 675: The Ways Teams Could Cheat, and the Ways We Would Punish Them by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 674: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Turning Corners by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 673: The Red Sox Pitching Coach Kerfuffle by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 672: How Real Are the Astros? by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 671: Avenging Umpires, Adjustable Innings, and Other Emails by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
6 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 670: Xander Bogaerts vs. Mookie Betts by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 669: The 2015 Under-25 Starters Draft by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
2 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 668: The No-Strikeout Streak, The Double DH, and the Overgrown Infield by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 667: The New Frontier in Pitching Statistics by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
30 BP Unfiltered: Every Team's Emergency Catcher by Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 666: The Josh Hamilton Trade by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 665: The A-Rod Breakout Breakdown by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 The BP Wayback Machine: Retaliation, and Pitchers Hitting Pitchers by Sam Miller
12 Pebble Hunting: Scott Boras Has Baseball's Most Accurate Projection System by Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 664: The Brawling Royals and the Remarkable Mets by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 663: Your Mostly Excellent Emails by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 662: Michael Schur on Metacommentary 10 Years After Fire Joe Morgan's First Post by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 661: How Different is Baseball in 2015? by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
4 BP Unfiltered: To Answer Your Question About Performance After Intentional Walks by Sam Miller
7 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 660: The Weekend-Long A's-Royals Rumble by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 659: The Making of the Modern General Manager by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
0 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 658: Playoff Odds Changes and the Meaning in Small Samples by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
1 BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 657: The Switching Cities, Dealing Draft Picks, and Trading Divisions Edition by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
Ben and Sam talk to Matt Trueblood about the teams that have hurt or improved their odds the most, and the aspects of performance that are significant in small samples.
Ben and Sam banter about Mike Trout and answer listener emails about trading draft picks and divisions, saving failing franchises, limiting pitchers, and more.
Ben and Sam banter about Jon Lester and then talk to the entire TINO (There Is No Offseason) podcast crew about their breakout-player beliefs.
Ben and Sam banter about the weekend's best plays and Mike Trout's hidden hobby, then discuss the potential pickoff showdown between Jon Lester and Billy Hamilton.
Ben and Sam talk about how we should talk about baseball's latest decline in scoring.
Ben and Sam banter about time of game and Jon Lester, then discuss what to do with the first release of Statcast data.
This is a BP Premium article. To read it,
sign up for Premium today!
April 9, 2015 11:30 am
What if every team could undo one move? If baseball teams were different, how different would they be?
This is a long article to set up another article six months from now to try to answer the question of how often a pennant race turns on one move.
Felix Hernandez is so young.
This originally ran in August 2012; updated for Felix's birthday. Read the full article...
Ben and Sam banter about Doug Melvin's extension talks and then answer listener emails about run differential, the players' portion of revenue, Kris Bryant, and more.
Ben and Sam banter about pace and time of game and then discuss why the structures of player extensions haven't evolved. Overanalyzing a father's beautiful book inscription.
Fifteen years ago, in a used book store in Madison, Andrew found a copy of Roger Angell's
Late Innings. There was an inscription in it, addressed to Andy—which, at the time, is the name Andrew went by. He loved that inscription, and a few weeks ago he sent it to us. Let's read that inscription, and then let's talk for a minute: Read the full article...
Ben and Sam have an all-banter episode for Opening Day, discussing Jon Lester's lack of pickoff attempts, the Angels' statements about Josh Hamilton, and the Padres-Braves Craig Kimbrel trade.