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Happy Thanksgiving! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 1

Sam Miller 

Sam Miller

Sam Miller is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus. He has written for three Baseball Prospectus annuals and co-edited the 2014 edition. He also co-hosts, with Ben Lindbergh, the Effectively Wild podcast, and is a contributor to ESPN the Magazine.

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11-26

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 580: Don't Leave Home Without Listener Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-25

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36

Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Do Whatever They Want
by
Sam Miller and Ben Carsley

11-24

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 579: Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval, and the Red Sox
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-21

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 578: The Free-Agent Contract Over/Under Draft
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-21

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11

Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fortune
by
Sam Miller

11-19

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 577: Backloaded Contracts and Listener Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-18

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 576: Martin to Toronto and the Atlanta-St. Louis Swap
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-18

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10

Transaction Analysis: Heyward Movement
by
Sam Miller, Jeff Moore, Ben Carsley and Wilson Karaman

11-17

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 575: The Giancarlo Stanton Extension
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-17

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19

Transaction Analysis: When $325 Million Is An Easy Decision
by
Sam Miller

11-14

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 574: The Cubs' Unparallelled Prospects
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-13

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3

BP Unfiltered: The First Thing I Will Look For When MVP Results Are Announced Today
by
Sam Miller

11-13

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11

Baseball's Seven Wonders
by
Sam Miller

11-12

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 573: Free Agents, Front-Office Surveys, and Other Incisive Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-11

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2

BP Unfiltered: Grading the 'MLB Executive' Predictions, 2012 and 2013
by
Sam Miller

11-10

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 572: How the World Series Odds Will Look Different on Opening Day
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-07

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 571: Thoughts on a Thin Free-Agent Market
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-05

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 570: The Offseason's First Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-05

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6

Pebble Hunting: Nelson Cruz is Same, Different
by
Sam Miller

11-03

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 569: The Yankees and Free Agency
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-31

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 568: Postseason Lessons and Legacies
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 567: Game 7, from Start to Finish
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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5

Playoff Prospectus: The Giants Win The World Series, Again
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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BP Unfiltered: The Reason Bumgarner Should Start (Even Though He Won't)
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 566: Game 6 Analysis and Game 7 Game Plans
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-29

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14

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 7 Preview
by
Sam Miller

10-28

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 565: Joe Maddon Moves On
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-27

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 564: The Weekend in World Series
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-27

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15

Playoff Prospectus: Mad Cool
by
Sam Miller

10-24

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 563: October Off-Day Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-24

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21

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of AT&T Park
by
Sam Miller

10-23

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 562: How Kansas City Evened the Series
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-22

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 561: What the Royals Look Like When They're Losing
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-22

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5

Playoff Prospectus: The Other Royals: World Series Game 1
by
Sam Miller

10-21

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 560: Grant Brisbee Still Isn't Sick of the World Series
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-21

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5

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of Kauffman Stadium
by
Sam Miller

10-21

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7

Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Giants vs. Royals
by
Sam Miller

10-20

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46

Pebble Hunting: The Best Teams Should Make The World Series; A Defense of Bud Selig
by
Sam Miller

10-20

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 559: Andy McCullough is Too Busy To Bask
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-17

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 558: Mike Matheny Ruins a Perfectly Good Podcast
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-16

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 557: Ned Yost's Mid-October Evolution
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-15

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Rich Get Smarter
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 556: Andrew Friedman Makes His Move, and the Royals Roll On
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-15

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Every Choice Ned Yost Must Make: ALCS Game 3
by
Sam Miller

10-14

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 555: Doug Thorburn on Postseason Pitchers with Problems
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-13

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7

Playoff Prospectus: The Greatest Defensive Outfield In History: ALCS Game 2
by
Sam Miller

10-13

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 554: Observations from Another Wild Weekend
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

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3

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Saturday Previews
by
Sam Miller and R.J. Anderson

10-10

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 553: Rob Neyer on Sabermetric Broadcasts and October Baseball
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-10

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14

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Series Preview: Royals vs. Orioles
by
Sam Miller

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The Royals have the speed, the Giants have the skipper, and both teams have momentum in an unlikely World Series matchup.

On July 28th, the Giants were four games behind the Dodgers, the Royals were five behind the Tigers, and PECOTA put their combined odds of winning the World Series at 4 percent. Neither was a preseason favorite to win the division, neither won the division, neither won 90 games, neither has an MVP candidate or a Cy Young candidate. Neither team's manager will win manager of the year, and neither will be the favorite to win a division going into next year's season. They are a combined 16-2 against the postseason gantlet, and PECOTA puts their combined odds of winning the World Series at 100 percent.

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The commissioner's lasting legacy isn't randomness and meaningless. It's a more fair world.

For all the excitement of this postseason’s individual games, there is a fairly common sentiment out there that something sucks about a system so random that sub-par teams get to fluke their way to the World Series, thus stripping the season of its power to make sure the best teams are rewarded. Why play a long season and then reduce the championship to coin flips? Why continually expand postseason until every champ resembles Chris Moneymaker? Zachary Levine foretold this postseason in his epitaph for Bud Selig, written in August:

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Ben and Sam talk to Kansas City Star Royals beat writer Andy McCullough about the World Series and covering the Royals.

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Ben and Sam discuss NLCS Game Five and respond to Mike Matheny's post-game comments in real time.

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Ben and Sam discuss Ned Yost's evolving tactics and Wednesday's Game Fours.

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October 15, 2014 4:02 pm

Pebble Hunting: The Rich Get Smarter

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Sam Miller

Andrew Friedman might be the most revered executive in the game--Billy Beane included--and the richest team in baseball just hired him.

On the one hand, Andrew Friedman is one of the only executives with a book written about him—or, at least, a book read by more than the author’s closest friends and relatives. On that hand, he runs a team that, when it succeeds, is largely credited to his genius (and the genius of his front office). On that hand, his Rays have been experimental and at the vanguard of various “trends”—at various times shifting, locking up pre-arb players ever earlier, building around defense, resisting multi-year contracts to relievers, or giving what figuratively seem like literally millions of at-bats to Jose Molina—that have become routine, even over-fished, around the league years later. We tend to see his Rays as the first clinical trial for the strategies that will soon be ubiquitous, so we pay a ton of attention to him. Because of all this, we know a lot about Andrew Friedman, who the Dodgers just poached to be president of baseball operations.

On the other, he has run perhaps the most opaque organization in the game. I once heard about a former Rays intern who was applying for another job. Standard industry practice in this situation is to pump the applicant for information about what his old team was doing, the research, the secrets. Heck, some of the time this fact-finding might be the only reason the interview is even taking place. But this intern wouldn’t budge. Again and again, he told the team that he was interviewing with, the team he was trying to impress, that, well, shoot, he’d love to, but he just couldn’t, not with his non-disclosure agreement, not when we’re talking about the Rays. The Rays were a black box. Their local media, for the most part, never got the Rays, and the Rays never gave them much to get. We know, in some ways, very little about Andrew Friedman.

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Ben and Sam discuss the Dodgers' hiring of Andrew Friedman and the Royals' latest postseason victory.

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October 15, 2014 2:03 am

Playoff Prospectus: Every Choice Ned Yost Must Make: ALCS Game 3

3

Sam Miller

A look at one game in the life of the Royals' supposed weak spot.

Recap: The Orioles jumped ahead but only by a run, Jeremy Guthrie was better than expected, the Royals erased the lead in the middle innings, jumped out ahead in the sixth, their defense and bullpen shut things down from the seventh on, and the Royals are up three games to none. In a postgame press conference, Guthrie took to wearing a taunting shirt based on the worst, I mean really the worst pop song of the year. He can get away with it because the Royals are about to go to the World Series and everybody except the Orioles and a few Angels fans is happy about it. Considering it was a 2-1 game in an LCS, it wasn’t all that interesting of a game. Lorenzo Cain made a nice catch. Mike Moustakas made a nice catch. Some more people on Twitter made Wil Myers jokes. Home sweep home, how sweep it is, ain't glove the sweepest thing, from the outhouse to the penthouse sweep. That’s the recap. Forgive me if I’m not inspired to do more, strict-recapwise.

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Ben and Sam talk to BP pitching mechanics expert Doug Thorburn about Adam Wainwright, Danny Duffy, and other postseason pitchers.

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The Royals jump way ahead of the Orioles in the ALCS. It'll take much more than regression to cost them the pennant now.

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Ben and Sam discuss the Cardinals' injuries, the value of outfield arms, Statcast, and more.

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October 11, 2014 4:56 am

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Saturday Previews

3

Sam Miller and R.J. Anderson

It's a must-win, for everybody! Everybody must win! No losers, everybody must not lose!

The Royals look to keep their unlikely winning streak going, while wags will call this a "must win" for Baltimore.

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