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Sam Miller 

Sam Miller

Sam Miller is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus. He has written for three Baseball Prospectus annuals and co-edited the 2014 edition. He also co-hosts, with Ben Lindbergh, the Effectively Wild podcast, and is a contributor to ESPN the Magazine.

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11-25

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29

Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Do Whatever They Want
by
Sam Miller and Ben Carsley

11-24

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 579: Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval, and the Red Sox
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-21

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 578: The Free-Agent Contract Over/Under Draft
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-21

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11

Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fortune
by
Sam Miller

11-19

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 577: Backloaded Contracts and Listener Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-18

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 576: Martin to Toronto and the Atlanta-St. Louis Swap
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-18

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10

Transaction Analysis: Heyward Movement
by
Sam Miller, Jeff Moore, Ben Carsley and Wilson Karaman

11-17

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 575: The Giancarlo Stanton Extension
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-17

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19

Transaction Analysis: When $325 Million Is An Easy Decision
by
Sam Miller

11-14

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 574: The Cubs' Unparallelled Prospects
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-13

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3

BP Unfiltered: The First Thing I Will Look For When MVP Results Are Announced Today
by
Sam Miller

11-13

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11

Baseball's Seven Wonders
by
Sam Miller

11-12

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 573: Free Agents, Front-Office Surveys, and Other Incisive Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-11

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2

BP Unfiltered: Grading the 'MLB Executive' Predictions, 2012 and 2013
by
Sam Miller

11-10

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 572: How the World Series Odds Will Look Different on Opening Day
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-07

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 571: Thoughts on a Thin Free-Agent Market
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-05

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 570: The Offseason's First Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-05

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6

Pebble Hunting: Nelson Cruz is Same, Different
by
Sam Miller

11-03

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 569: The Yankees and Free Agency
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-31

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 568: Postseason Lessons and Legacies
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 567: Game 7, from Start to Finish
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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5

Playoff Prospectus: The Giants Win The World Series, Again
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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0

BP Unfiltered: The Reason Bumgarner Should Start (Even Though He Won't)
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 566: Game 6 Analysis and Game 7 Game Plans
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-29

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14

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 7 Preview
by
Sam Miller

10-28

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 565: Joe Maddon Moves On
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-27

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 564: The Weekend in World Series
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-27

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15

Playoff Prospectus: Mad Cool
by
Sam Miller

10-24

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 563: October Off-Day Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-24

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21

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of AT&T Park
by
Sam Miller

10-23

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 562: How Kansas City Evened the Series
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-22

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 561: What the Royals Look Like When They're Losing
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-22

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5

Playoff Prospectus: The Other Royals: World Series Game 1
by
Sam Miller

10-21

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3

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 560: Grant Brisbee Still Isn't Sick of the World Series
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-21

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5

Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of Kauffman Stadium
by
Sam Miller

10-21

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7

Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Giants vs. Royals
by
Sam Miller

10-20

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46

Pebble Hunting: The Best Teams Should Make The World Series; A Defense of Bud Selig
by
Sam Miller

10-20

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 559: Andy McCullough is Too Busy To Bask
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-17

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 558: Mike Matheny Ruins a Perfectly Good Podcast
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-16

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 557: Ned Yost's Mid-October Evolution
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-15

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Rich Get Smarter
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 556: Andrew Friedman Makes His Move, and the Royals Roll On
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-15

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Every Choice Ned Yost Must Make: ALCS Game 3
by
Sam Miller

10-14

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 555: Doug Thorburn on Postseason Pitchers with Problems
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-13

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7

Playoff Prospectus: The Greatest Defensive Outfield In History: ALCS Game 2
by
Sam Miller

10-13

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 554: Observations from Another Wild Weekend
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

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3

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Saturday Previews
by
Sam Miller and R.J. Anderson

10-10

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 553: Rob Neyer on Sabermetric Broadcasts and October Baseball
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-10

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14

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Series Preview: Royals vs. Orioles
by
Sam Miller

10-09

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 552: Your Playoff-Related Emails, Answered
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>

Ben and Sam discuss Jerry Crasnick's executive survey, then answer listener emails about Max Scherzer, international spending, and more.

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GMs, as we all know, are getting smarter. Are they?

Two years ago, Jerry Crasnick released his annual Polling of the Execs, in which a couple dozen GMs and GM-types ("general managers, assistant GMs, player personnel people and scouts") answered that ol' impossible request: Predict Baseball. It's one of my favorite columns of the offseason, giving us insight into the way that people on the inside think baseball works. I used the occasion to look back at those GM-types' success rate over the previous nine seasons, and found that they were hardly better than random chance at predicting whether a player would be good ("I saw (Kaz) Matsui four years ago, and I thought he was a better player than Ichiro,") or where a player was going to be signed or whether a player was going to be traded or to whom. Don't mistake that for lack of value; just acknowledge that what we're getting is a particular type of insight from these answers, if not necessary a particularly bankable forecast.

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Ben and Sam size up the pre-offseason 2015 World Series odds and speculate about how they might change before next season.

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Ben and Sam banter about Fat Kershaw and GMs without playing experience, then talk about free agents who aren't getting their due.

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Ben and Sam banter about Joe Maddon, Michael Cuddyer, and more, then answer offseason-related listener emails.

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November 5, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Nelson Cruz is Same, Different

6

Sam Miller

Nelson Cruz wants what he wanted last year, and might get it, and might not.

Hello, old friend.

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Ben and Sam discuss the Yankees' free-agent spending plans and their impact on the market.

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Ben and Sam discuss World Series hangovers and the Danny Duffy deception, then talk about what they learned from the Royals and the Giants.

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Ben and Sam recap and respond to Game 7's twists and turns, from Guthrie to Bumgarner and Gordon.

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32+ GIFs for 32 games.

So, the 2010-2014 Giants. The dynasty of our era. What the Yankees were to the 1990s, the A's were to the 1970s, so the Giants are to this decade. Feels weird. You swish it around in your mouth and you're not sure whether it's $800 scotch or $3.99 mouthwash, but you know it burns a little and you know it'll get you drunk and/or blind.

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Cleaning up Baseball Prospectus, one Russell Carleton unfiltered post at a time.

We talk about pitching decisions in terms of leverage, but most of what we think of as modern pitcher usage—five-man rotations, seventh-inning guys, closers, LOOGYs—is born only secondarily of leverage. The real factor is attrition, and the acknowledgment that we can’t expect the team’s best pitcher to throw every inning of every game without breaking down or getting much, much, much worse from overuse. Say we know that Craig Kimbrel is less likely than any Braves pitcher to allow a run in any situation, but he can only do it 75 times all year; the goal is to avoid wasting a single one of those 75 on a low-leverage situation, thus dooming some other high-leverage situation to an inferior pitcher. Without the attrition—if Kimbrel could pitch all day every day—there would be no decision. Kimbrel’s manager would look very smart.

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Ben and Sam discuss the breaks that went the Royals' way in Game 6, then preview the final game of the 2014 season.

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