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Russell A. Carleton 

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04-17

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 430: Dirk Hayhurst on Cheating, Beaning, and Clubhouse Race Relations
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

04-15

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16

Baseball Therapy: Why Sabermetrics Needs Translational Research
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-07

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9

Baseball Therapy: Beware of the Intentional Walk?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-03

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8

BP Unfiltered: So What Was Daniel Murphy Doing in the Delivery Room?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-01

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14

Baseball Therapy: The Complete Value of a Complete Game
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-01

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17

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing Mongolian Yak Racing Prospectus
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

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15

Baseball Therapy: Advances in Chemistry?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

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7

Prospectus Preview: NL West 2014 Preseason Preview
by
Russell A. Carleton and Daniel Rathman

03-24

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5

Baseball Therapy: The Complicated Recoveries of Aroldis Chapman and Salvador Perez
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-17

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22

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-10

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13

Baseball Therapy: The Baseball Questions We're About to Be Asking
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-04

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9

Baseball Therapy: Why The Cardinal Way is the Most Important Book in Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-24

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22

Baseball Therapy: But…He Finished Strong Last Season!
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-17

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10

Baseball Therapy: Looking for Meaning Amid the Small-Sample Flukes
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-11

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15

Baseball Therapy: When Sabermetrics Gets Personal
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-03

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11

Baseball Therapy: How Would We Know That a Team Has Good Chemistry?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-29

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28

Throw the Flag
by
Dan Brooks and Russell A. Carleton

01-27

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38

Baseball Therapy: Why Are Smart Teams Spending Money on Relievers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-13

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15

Baseball Therapy: Building a Better Starting Rotation
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-09

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23

Baseball Therapy: The Hall of Fame Ballots By the Numbers
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-06

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11

Baseball Therapy: The Five-Man Rotation: The Appendix of Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-26

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7

Baseball Therapy: Rest an Extra Day to Keep the Doctor Away?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-16

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28

Baseball Therapy: What Happened to the Four-Man Rotation?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-12

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8

BP Unfiltered: Stand Up to Cancer...and Fernando Valenzuela
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-09

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12

Baseball Therapy: What Happened to the Complete Game?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-06

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5

Transaction Analysis: Feldman Aims for the Stars
by
Russell A. Carleton and Craig Goldstein

12-04

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2

Transaction Analysis: Mile-High Morneau
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-02

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5

Baseball Therapy: Dating the Impulse to Protect Pitchers
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-25

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38

Baseball Therapy: The Corner-Outfield Inefficiency
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-18

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20

Baseball Therapy: Why Do Teams Overpay for Free Agents?
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-11

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14

Baseball Therapy: The Cost of a Cost-Controlled Win
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-06

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4

Baseball Therapy: Is There a Pinch-Running Penalty?
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-04

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10

Baseball Therapy: What Do Fielders and Homecoming Queens Have in Common?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-28

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3

Baseball Therapy: Is Cardinal Magic Real?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-21

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7

Baseball Therapy: The Effects of the Shutdown (Inning)
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-16

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1

Baseball Therapy: Did Big Papi’s Big Home Run Give Boston the Big Mo?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-14

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6

Baseball Therapy: Does Postseason Experience Really Matter?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-11

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10

Baseball Therapy: Why Sabermetricians Don't Talk About Chemistry
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-08

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27

Baseball Therapy: What My Four-Year-Old Taught Me About Bunting
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-30

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3

Baseball Therapy: Who Has the Momentum? And Does it Matter?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-23

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18

Baseball Therapy: If One Win is Worth $5 Million...
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-17

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15

BP Unfiltered: Valuing the "Contender" Component of MVP Voting
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-13

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11

Baseball Therapy: My MVP Case for Miguel Cabrera
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-10

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16

Baseball Therapy: How to Work with Scouting Data
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-03

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9

Baseball Therapy: Do Young Pitchers Fail to Develop When the Bullpen Implodes?
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-28

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14

Baseball Therapy: Matt Harvey and the Increased Risk from a Few Extra Innings
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-26

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5

Baseball Therapy: Baseball: Like Nothing You've Ever Seen Before
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-23

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5

Baseball Therapy: Ryan Dempster, Alex Rodriguez, and Waking the Monster
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-20

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14

Baseball Therapy: Saving the Save
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-12

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8

Baseball Therapy: Using the Closer to Keep a Deficit Small
by
Russell A. Carleton

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What do the stats say about the value of previous playoff appearances?

David Ortiz has come to the plate in a playoff game more than 300 times over the course of his career. Justin Verlander has started 14 games in the postseason and faced more than 300 batters. When they meet during this week’s American League Championship Series, who has the advantage? What about when Ortiz inevitably faces Tigers lefty reliever extraordinaire Drew Smyly, who prior to this year had a postseason resume consisting of four innings (all last year)? What about postseason neophyte (and rookie in general) Jose Alvarez? Does Verlander’s experience in the postseason give him an advantage over Will Middlebrooks, who made his playoff debut last week, that he doesn’t have against Ortiz, who’s been doing this since 2002 with the Twins? (Post hoc: I wrote this before Big Papi hit his big home run. #YCPB)

Read the full article...

And why maybe they should more often.

On Thursday’s episode of ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast, host Buster Olney, while discussing the Cardinals’ NLDS victory over the Pirates with ESPN’s Pedro Gomez, made a comment that sabermetricians do not often discuss matters of team chemistry or clubhouse culture. (Well, maybe once in a while…) Olney then proceeded to talk about how he believed that one reason for the Cardinals’ success, both within the NLDS and more broadly over the past few years, has to do with the culture that the club has worked to cultivate. Olney cited, among other things, that Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, himself worthy of some legitimate MVP support this year, is also one of the hardest workers on the team. Olney pointed out that Cardinals management (Tony LaRussa and, later, Mike Matheny) has gone out of its way to specifically ask its star players to set an example for the rest of the team. He reasoned that other players on the team see this sort of commitment from Molina and are inspired to commit themselves to similarly hard work, and pointed out that it’s rare for sabermetricians give much credence to this as a reason that some teams win while others fall by the wayside.

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Why bunting isn't as bad as you think.

My daughter completely schooled me this week. In the 2013 Baseball Prospectus Annual, I talked about how she, at the tender age of three, was a better sabermetrician than I, because she’s much more experimental about life than I am. She turned four a few months ago, so she’s not really young for her level any more, but she’s still better at this than I am. Last week, my wife and I were in the kitchen and my daughter was busily drawing a picture of… something. My wife mentioned that one of her friends had made a bunting (the kind that a baby wears) for her infant daughter. My daughter asked what a bunting was and my wife explained. As an afterthought, I tacked on, “and it’s a bad strategic play in baseball.” My daughter stopped drawing, looked over at me, and asked her favorite question, “Why?”

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Does how hard you had to fight to make the playoffs matter once you're there?

Oh boy, it’s playoff time! Time for all of the baseball prognosticators out there to find that perfect little factoid that no one else has noticed about each series. It needs to be slightly surprising and counter-intuitive so that the reader is entertained by your erudite knowledge of the game, not to mention your use of the word “erudite.” You also need to be able to make a case, probably though some questionable logic, that this factoid will, over the next five games between these two teams, not only make a difference in the outcome of the series, but will be the difference between the teams. You get bonus points if you refer to someone really obscure as an X-factor.

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September 23, 2013 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: If One Win is Worth $5 Million...

18

Russell A. Carleton

Why big ideas to make baseball teams better aren't always easy to implement.

Lately, there’s been a lot of writing among baseball analysts and thinkers about how teams might leverage small investments to their benefit. You know the ones. They all start with “Well, if a win is worth five million dollars, then spending fifty thousand on this has to net just one hundredth of a win to be worth it.” (I’ve written a few of them myself.) Then they continue with an exasperated tone, wondering why teams don’t seem to do much of this sort of thinking. (Or do they?)

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How good would Mike Trout have to be to overcome the Angels' poor record in MVP voters' eyes?

The Angels will not be making the playoffs this season. The Tigers likely will. And according to Fox Sports national baseball writer Jon Morosi, that settles the AL MVP debate for him.

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September 13, 2013 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: My MVP Case for Miguel Cabrera

11

Russell A. Carleton

In which Russell plays by the same rules as the rest of the writers.

It’s getting to be time for the AL MVP argument. Stop me if you’ve heard this one, but Mike Trout is on his way to putting up a 10-win season, while Miguel Cabrera is without a doubt the best hitter in the league and leading in batting average and RBIs. If only Chris Davis hadn’t ruined everything by hitting all those home runs. And like last time, this is shaping up to be an argument (dare I say, a WAR) between new-school and old-school understandings of baseball value.

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September 10, 2013 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: How to Work with Scouting Data

16

Russell A. Carleton

How researchers and number-crunchers can make the most of a rich and largely untapped data source.

There never was a stats vs. scouts war. If there was, it was silly. A good researcher knows that you never throw away perfectly good data.

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Or, should the Astros invest in some veteran relievers?

Autumn came a little early to Houston this year. You might not have noticed, but the Astros recently became the first American League team to be formally eliminated from the playoffs. It’s not that anyone really expected the Astros to contend this year, but then again, I picked the Angels to win the World Series at the beginning of the year. Shows what we know.

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Did the Mets underestimate the potential cost of Matt Harvey's high-pitch-count outings?

If you haven't heard the news, New York Mets wunderkind Matt Harvey has been diagnosed as having a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. Harvey has said that he wants to avoid surgery if possible, but this sort of thing usually ends up with a visit to Dr. Tommy John for James Andrews surgery. As per usual, everyone on Twitter remembered their extensive medical training and pitching mechanics expertise and did the most productive thing that they could: lay blame for Harvey's unfortunate circumstances at the feet of his pitching coach, his manager, his conditioning, his conditioner (the hair kind), his genetic makeup and, of course, dumb luck.

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Every baseball game, no matter how mundane, has a unique fingerprint.

They say that if you stick around long enough at a baseball game, you'll see something that you've never seen before. Something odd and surprising like a double play where the catcher records both outs at third base or an invisible home run or Teddy Roosevelt winning the President's race. While I was thinking about that particular baseball axiom, another question popped into my head. If I stick around long enough at a baseball game, would I see something that had happened before?

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Can conflict make a team play better?

NYA @ BOS, 8/18/2013
Top of the 2nd
Rodriguez was hit by a pitch (3-0 count).



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