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Russell A. Carleton 

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09-27

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2

Baseball Therapy: Bullpen Contagion
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-20

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6

Baseball Therapy: Is The American League Just Better?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-13

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3

Baseball Therapy: Should MLB Go For the Gold?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-07

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2

Baseball Therapy: Stop Blaming the September Call-Ups!
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-01

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6

Baseball Therapy: Let’s See if We Can Get a Handle on Zach Britton’s Cy Young Case
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-23

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3

Baseball Therapy: If I Had A Million Dollars
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-16

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29

Baseball Therapy: Rage Over Roids
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-09

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1

Baseball Therapy: Learning A New Position Is Free
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-03

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4

Baseball Therapy: What Would 7-Inning Baseball Look Like?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-26

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8

Baseball Therapy: Growing Zobrists
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-19

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4

Baseball Therapy: The Pink Elephant Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-06

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7

Baseball Therapy: ...Although I Have No Idea How We'd Measure That
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-28

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2

Baseball Therapy: Dollhouses and Sandboxes
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-23

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8

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

06-22

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5

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

06-21

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4

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

06-20

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5

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

05-31

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3

Baseball Therapy: The Knee
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-24

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4

Baseball Therapy: Framing the At-Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-17

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5

Prospectus Feature: The Only Rule Is You Have To Answer My Questions
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-11

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8

Baseball Therapy: The Even Slightly More Convincing Argument Against the Shift
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-03

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10

Baseball Therapy: The Pretty Good Case That the Shift Doesn't Work
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-27

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7

Baseball Therapy: Can Teams Come Back From a Comeback?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-19

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17

Baseball Therapy: The One About Exit Velocity
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-12

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5

Baseball Therapy: Somebody Is Finally Trying to Kill the Traditional Closer Role
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-07

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1

Baseball Therapy: Go Ahead, Call It a Comeback
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-05

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8

Baseball Therapy: Someone's Not Paying Attention
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-29

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7

Baseball Therapy: It Worked Last Time
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-22

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4

Baseball Therapy: Are You Cultured?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-15

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8

Baseball Therapy: Bringing Down The House
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-08

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1

Baseball Therapy: Should Someone Save Salvy?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-01

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19

Baseball Therapy: Let's Talk About Tax Policy
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-23

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13

Baseball Therapy: Is There a Times Through The Order Penalty?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-16

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7

Baseball Therapy: Do Bad PECOTA Projections Make Teams Mad?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-09

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13

Baseball Therapy: The Crack in the Defensive Spectrum
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-02

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20

Baseball Therapy: The Dark Side of Pitch Framing?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-26

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6

Baseball Therapy: It's Nice to Have Options
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-19

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2

Baseball Therapy: Let's Figure Out What a Scouting Department's Entire Product is Worth
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-12

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7

Baseball Therapy: Put Russell In the Hall of Fame
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-05

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12

Baseball Therapy: Now With 50 Percent Less Math
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-31

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2

Best of BP 2015: Why Not Make the Hole Square?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-22

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8

Baseball Therapy: We Can Be Heroes?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-16

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17

Baseball Therapy: Have We Been Underpricing Relievers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-08

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6

Baseball Therapy: Fiddlesticks, Yeah!
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-01

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5

Baseball Therapy: The Neuropsychology of Bad Managing
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-24

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7

Baseball Therapy: The Kimbrel Gambit
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-19

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6

Baseball Therapy: What Should the QO Number Be?
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-10

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3

Baseball Therapy: I Want to Write About Player Development
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-03

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8

Baseball Therapy: How Much the DH Rule Matters
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-28

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8

Baseball Therapy: And on the Fifth Day He Rested
by
Russell A. Carleton

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The Guinness Effect, and why opt-outs are the only way for a true star to get what he's worth.

This offseason is starting to feel like an episode of Oprah. You get an opt-out! You get an opt-out! Yo gets an opt-out too! Opt-outs are the new must-have item this winter, and if you don’t have one, you can’t sit at the cool people table.

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The federal government gets into the sabermetrics biz.

Last week in Federal court, former St. Louis Cardinals executive Chris Correa was indicted on, and pleaded guilty to, charges that he improperly accessed the Houston Astros’ database, Ground Control, on multiple occasions. Before we go any further in this article, let’s get something out of the way. What Mr. Correa or anyone else involved in the case did or did not do is a matter for the FBI to investigate and the courts to adjudicate and I will leave that in their hands. Correa is quoted in the article as saying that he “trespassed repeatedly” and that he accepts responsibility for the case. Everyone else, not surprisingly, has largely declined to say much else.

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Start the bandwagon: The next criminally underrated HOF candidate is today's criminally underrated superstar.

I might be a little biased, but I think that if there’s something that last week’s Hall of Fame results needed, it was more inductees named Russell. With Russell Branyan not eligible for election (and in legal trouble), things have been looking kinda bleak. But something else happened in last week’s results that gives me hope. Other than that guy who’s going in with a backwards cap, catcher Mike Piazza finally got his spot in the Hall of Fame.

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Putting the question marks in our tables.

Time to do a little less #GoryMath. Really.

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The Rays have turned a punted roster spot into a positive.

With the year winding to a close, Baseball Prospectus is revisiting some of our favorite articles of the year. This was originally published on July 8, 2017.

If there's been a trend over the last few years that has caught on like wildfire, it's been the rise of the short starter. Not the 5-foot-9 starter who wishes he was a little bit taller or wishes he was a baller. The Tampa starter. The guy who goes 4 innings and 18 batters and then leaves. In 2015, the Rays began experimenting with the concept, although the Rockies were even trying a four-man rotation with pitchers limited to 75 pitches in 2012. But it was in the hands of the Rays that the idea found its heart. The team that always seemed to be a little bit further ahead of the curve than anyone else had it all figured out two years ago.

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December 22, 2015 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: We Can Be Heroes?

8

Russell A. Carleton

Are players doing a good job of reining in their ambitions?

I was recently listening to some back episodes of the MLB Statcast podcast (love it!) and heard a fantastic interview between host Mike Petriello and former major-league outfielder turned Rockies broadcaster Ryan Spilborghs. (It’s the 11/5/2015 episode, which you can find here). In the interview, Spilborghs talks about how a team’s approach might make all the difference between winning and losing. In particular, he talked about how, when a team is going bad, guys get a little desperate. Instead of taking a nice rational approach at the plate, they go up attempting to hit a home run to try to light a spark under the team.

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December 16, 2015 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Have We Been Underpricing Relievers?

17

Russell A. Carleton

All the cool teams are collecting relievers again, but are they more like pogs or Magic: The Gathering cards?

Last year, the must-have item of the Winter Meetings shopping season was a catcher with mad framing skills. In a short period of time, Hank Conger, Ryan Hannigan, Miguel Montero, and everyone who owned a chest protector on the Padres roster changed teams. This year, tastes have changed. Now, the new hip thing that all the cool teams have is a crazy good closer. More to the point, a second crazy good closer to pitch in the role once known as “the eight- inning guy.” It’s not enough to have one shoe any more. You need two.

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In praise of that word.

Statcast’s rookie season is now in the rearview mirror. And it was a good one. The slightly Orwellian information system gave us plenty of new information to drool over. We learned terms like “route efficiency” and “exit velocity” and “launch angle” and could marvel at just how fast baseball players moved around the diamond, chasing after the little white pearl which was moving even faster still. Baseball might be a game of inches, but it’s a game of inches played at insane speeds.

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Bunting and broccoli and the brain.

I believe you are all familiar with the hashtags. #Mathenaging. #Yosted. #BuntToWin. And that’s just the state of Missouri. It’s now common knowledge that there are certain strategic plays that were once popular, but upon further review, it’s clear that they are questionable tactics at best. Everyone knows it, and yet, bunting is still a thing. Even the “smart” managers do it. Why?

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November 24, 2015 7:34 am

Baseball Therapy: The Kimbrel Gambit

7

Russell A. Carleton

Just how much of a difference does a good closer make?

Well, we have a pretty good idea of what Craig Kimbrel is worth at this point. Kimbrel – one of the prime contenders for “best active reliever in baseball” – has swapped his Atlanta address for sunny San Diego and then again for Boston, all within 2015. Boston paid a pretty price for the fireballer, sending four prospects to the Padres for the honor of having Kimbrel on their team. The Padres had previously sent Cameron Maybin , Matt Wisler and Jordan Paroubeck (and oh yeah, Carlos Quentin, who was immediately DFAed) to the Braves for Kimbrel, along with the most important piece of the deal, relieving the Braves of the contract of Melvin Upton Jr. (nee B.J.).

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Spoiler: It's not $15.8 million.

Baseball has been trying to figure this problem out since free agency began. Baseball players are free actors and may sign with whomever they choose—and that usually corresponds to whoever happens to offer the most money. Some teams have more money than others. How to keep the big money *cough*Yankees*cough*Dodgers*cough* teams from simply buying championships and ruining all the fun for everyone else?

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November 10, 2015 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: I Want to Write About Player Development

3

Russell A. Carleton

How do we use our skills as statheads in a field that evades us?

I want to write about player development. I want to do it mostly because there’s not a lot of writing about it among the statistically inclined sort, which I find to be very strange. Everyone’s always looking around for the #NewMoneyball and, frankly, it’s staring right at them. Young, cost-controlled players return value—on average—at a dollar per win rate that’s about half what a team would pay on the free agent market. And that’s just the average. If a team is any good at player development, it can assemble a roster of young, cost-controlled players and ride that wave for a long time. If a team could nail down player development, they’d have a bit of an edge, wouldn’t you say?

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