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Russell A. Carleton |
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October 29, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: The Proper Care and Feeding of Minor Leaguers |
Are teams losing out in the long run by letting their prospects feed on fast food?
A couple of months ago, I got on a plane to Orlando, not to see an anthropomorphic mouse and a duck who doesn’t wear pants, but to do actual work. It’s not often that I travel for work, but I do enjoy a good plane ride, because it’s one of the few times that I can sit down and read a book without feeling guilty. On this trip, my companion was Dirk Hayhurst’s Bullpen Gospels, which had been sitting on my shelf for a while. For those who haven’t yet read it (what are you doing with your lives?), Hayhurst discusses his travels through the minors and the real life that happens in between the last out and "play ball!" (and yes, I got that right). It could double as an anthropological field study of a very curious culture: the minor-league baseball player.
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October 22, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Are Three-True-Outcomes Players Better in the Playoffs? |
Does walking, striking out, and homering more often help or hurt a hitter in the postseason?
Let me pull back the curtain on how BP articles are made, at least at my house. This article came about when I was washing the dishes. It's my thing. I like to listen to podcasts and scrub down pots and pans. It's wondrously therapeutic after a long day at work, and BP alumni Joe Sheehan and Rany Jazayerli were keeping me company as I struggled mightily with the remnants of mac and cheese from my daughter's lunch plate.
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October 15, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: The Case for Cano |
Why Robinson Cano deserves a second-plate vote on your mental AL MVP ballot.
Depending on the day, Robinson Cano is often the third- or fourth-most-talked-about member of the Yankee infield.
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October 11, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Is Joe Saunders a Double Play Machine? |
Does Orioles Game Four starter Joe Saunders really possess the ability to induce double plays on command?
On last Friday's episode of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus, our own Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller (and guest Marc Normandin) discussed Buck Showalter's decision to start Joe Saunders in the AL wild card play-in game against the Texas Rangers. They noted that Saunders—who'll get the call again tonight in Game Four of the Yankees-Orioles ALDS—does not have amazing stuff and allows a lot of runners to reach base, and also that he does not have an exceedingly high groundball rate. Still, he seems to induce more groundballs at opportune times, and as a result, he gets a lot of double plays to bail him out of some major jams. Perhaps Saunders changes his approach with a runner on first and no one out in an intentional bid to get a groundball. It would make complete sense that he would do so.
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October 2, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: WARP for People Who Didn't Like Math Class |
A handy guide to understanding what WARP means without many numbers.
Over the weekend, there were plenty of end-of-season retrospectives from columnists who cast non-existent ballots for the MVPs, Cy Young award winners, and Rookies of the Year. As might be expected, many of the columnists brought up the WARP (Mike Trout) vs. Triple Crown (Miguel Cabrera) angle. There was a common theme running through the pieces that argued for Cabrera: WARP is a complicated and math-heavy stat, and because it is so complicated, how can we be sure that Trout was actually the better player?
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October 1, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: When Do Players Stop Developing? |
How old does a player have to be before we should stop expecting him to improve?
"He just needs another year."
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September 28, 2012 5:20 am
Baseball Therapy: A Sabermetric Case for Miguel Cabrera's MVP Candidacy |
The best way to win a debate is to make the argument for the other side better than your opponent does. To support Mike Trout's MVP case, Russell tries taking the opposite stance.
In high school, I had a very wise history teacher whose motto was that the best way to win a debate was to be able to make the argument for the other side better than your debate opponent. So, I decided to challenge myself. Can I make a case that Miguel Cabrera deserves the American League MVP over Mike Trout using sabermetrics?
September 24, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 3: Smoking, Hitting, and the Search for an 80 Brain |
Is changing a player's approach at the plate like getting someone to quit smoking? And how does learning ability affect development?
Once again, let's talk about player development from a scientific perspective. For the past couple weeks, I've been looking at the "What Can Go Wrong" Series that BP's own Jason Parks wrote last winter the way that a trained developmental specialist would and discussing how certain problems that Jason identified can be measured, even if those data aren't publicly available.
September 21, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Wild-Card Game Theory |
Is there a scenario where it might make sense for a team not to try to win a playoff game?
Let's play poker. With wild cards.
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September 18, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 2: Reading and Fear of Failure |
How reading a pitcher is like reading a book, and why being self-conscious can make you bad at baseball.
Last week, I began a series on player development and what a stathead like me can say about how to assess a player's progress. One of the most maddening things about baseball fandom (and, um, on the inside of the game too) is when prospects who are supposed to take the team into a brave new era don't pan out. Every team has "the name that shall not be uttered" in polite company. He was a can't-miss blue-chipper whom everyone figured would be the next Willie Mays. Except that he turned into the next Willie Bloomquist.
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September 10, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 1: Intro and Losing Focus |
What can the staff psychologist/stathead learn from the way our prospect expert describes players' problems?
I want to do something experimental.
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September 5, 2012 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Is There Really Racism in the Broadcast Booth? |
Russell puts the conclusions of last week's attention-getting article in The Atlantic to the test.
Last week, in Atlantic magazine, two researchers published the results of a study with a very unsettling conclusion: there is subtle racism at work in the broadcast booth in Major League Baseball. The idea that Caucasian players are more often praised for being "gritty" and "scrappy," while African-American, Hispanic, and Asian players aren't similarly lauded, isn’t a new one. For the first time, someone decided to put the hypothesis to an empirical test.
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