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Russell A. Carleton 

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07-30

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9

BP Unfiltered: The Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Rarities
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-29

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15

Baseball Therapy: Trading Ryan Howard For Nothing and Winning
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-15

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51

Baseball Therapy: Why Are We Playing Hunger Games with Minor Leaguers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-08

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7

Baseball Therapy: What is a Fast Runner Worth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-04

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 485: Trading Within the Division
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

07-03

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 484: Kiley McDaniel Explains the International Signing Period
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

07-01

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4

Baseball Therapy: Do Some Pitches Do More Damage Than Others?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-24

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17

Baseball Therapy: Is it Really Harder to Scout in New England?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-19

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12

Baseball Therapy: Should You Trust the Projections?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-17

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7

Baseball Therapy: What High School Has to Do with Tommy John
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-13

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3

Baseball Therapy: What You Can Do With Your Old Baseball Cards
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-10

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4

Baseball Therapy: Can Draft Lightning Be Bottled?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-03

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19

Baseball Therapy: Introducing My Daughter to Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-30

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16

Baseball Therapy: The Hard Part About Preventing Tommy John Surgeries
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-27

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13

Baseball Therapy: The Annual Amateur Draft Guessing Game
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-20

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7

Baseball Therapy: Beware the Genius Tag for Coaches
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-13

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7

Baseball Therapy: Analytical Master or Leader of Men?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-07

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0

BP Unfiltered: Baseball Prospectus at Fox Sports: The Statistical Impact of Instant Replay
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-06

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5

Baseball Therapy: Is Oakland's Run Differential for Real?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-29

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11

Baseball Therapy: Do Innings Limits Work?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-22

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8

Baseball Therapy: The Houdini Hangover Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-17

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 430: Dirk Hayhurst on Cheating, Beaning, and Clubhouse Race Relations
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

04-15

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16

Baseball Therapy: Why Sabermetrics Needs Translational Research
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-07

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9

Baseball Therapy: Beware of the Intentional Walk?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-03

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8

BP Unfiltered: So What Was Daniel Murphy Doing in the Delivery Room?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-01

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14

Baseball Therapy: The Complete Value of a Complete Game
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-01

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17

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing Mongolian Yak Racing Prospectus
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

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15

Baseball Therapy: Advances in Chemistry?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

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7

Prospectus Preview: NL West 2014 Preseason Preview
by
Russell A. Carleton and Daniel Rathman

03-24

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5

Baseball Therapy: The Complicated Recoveries of Aroldis Chapman and Salvador Perez
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-17

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22

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-10

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13

Baseball Therapy: The Baseball Questions We're About to Be Asking
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-04

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9

Baseball Therapy: Why The Cardinal Way is the Most Important Book in Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-24

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22

Baseball Therapy: But…He Finished Strong Last Season!
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-17

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10

Baseball Therapy: Looking for Meaning Amid the Small-Sample Flukes
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-11

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15

Baseball Therapy: When Sabermetrics Gets Personal
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-03

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11

Baseball Therapy: How Would We Know That a Team Has Good Chemistry?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-29

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28

Throw the Flag
by
Dan Brooks and Russell A. Carleton

01-27

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38

Baseball Therapy: Why Are Smart Teams Spending Money on Relievers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-13

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15

Baseball Therapy: Building a Better Starting Rotation
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-09

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23

Baseball Therapy: The Hall of Fame Ballots By the Numbers
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-06

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11

Baseball Therapy: The Five-Man Rotation: The Appendix of Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-26

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7

Baseball Therapy: Rest an Extra Day to Keep the Doctor Away?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-16

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28

Baseball Therapy: What Happened to the Four-Man Rotation?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-12

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8

BP Unfiltered: Stand Up to Cancer...and Fernando Valenzuela
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-09

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12

Baseball Therapy: What Happened to the Complete Game?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-06

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5

Transaction Analysis: Feldman Aims for the Stars
by
Russell A. Carleton and Craig Goldstein

12-04

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2

Transaction Analysis: Mile-High Morneau
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-02

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5

Baseball Therapy: Dating the Impulse to Protect Pitchers
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-25

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38

Baseball Therapy: The Corner-Outfield Inefficiency
by
Russell A. Carleton

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Important things that happened when Daniel Murphy went away.

Congratulations go out to Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy and his wife on the birth of their first child, Noah on Monday night. Murphy left the Mets and went to Florida to be there for... well, let's see here... ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS THAT WILL EVER HAPPEN IN HIS LIFE. In doing so, Murphy invoked his right, under the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, to a few days of paternity leave. The Mets were able to bring up Wilmer Flores to take Murphy's spot on the roster until Murphy returned to action on Thursday.

Read the full article...

Does a starter who goes deep into games really have an effect on days before and after his outings?

The complete game has become an increasingly rare beast. In 2013, there were 124 complete games registered by the 4,862 pitchers who started out on the hill, and Adam Wainwright led all of baseball with five. If a pitcher makes it through nine innings, he’s likely having a very good day, and nine innings of well-pitched baseball is nothing to sneeze at. But a complete game is more than that. It’s a sign of manliness. It’s like shouting, “I don’t need no stinkin’ bullpen!” It’s a cultural touchstone. It’s the guy yelling at his TV, “Finish what you started, you silly overpaid, coddled millionaire. I finish my day of work without calling in a reliever.” A pitcher who completes a game is just getting in touch with the common man.

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BP branches out.

Prospectus Entertainment Ventures (PEV), which owns the highly successful website and annual book franchise Baseball Prospectus, has announced that it will be expanding its next-level coverage of sports into a new area. PEV CEO Joe Hamrahi announced on Tuesday that a new website, Mongolian Yak Racing Prospectus, would be launching soon and that several Baseball Prospectus regulars would be contributing content. Said Hamrahi, “We’re always looking to strengthen our brand, and this seems like a natural fit. We borrowed a supercomputer from a MLB mystery team, it told us to expand into Mongolian yak racing, and we all know that supercomputers are NEVER wrong. Which reminds me, I need to return this supercomputer.”

BP editor-in-chief Ben Lindbergh will do double-duty as MYRP editor-in-chief and its companion site Yakworthy, which will consist mostly of GIFs of yaks falling over. Lindbergh was excited by his new responsibilities, saying, “We’re going to offer a lot of great coverage, including the latest in yak racing rumors. We’re bringing on an as-yet-unnamed fetus who has been tweeting about yak transactions from his mother’s womb.”

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March 27, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Advances in Chemistry?

15

Russell A. Carleton

A look at the ESPN: The Magazine team chemistry rankings.

Let’s talk about the ESPN: The Magazine team chemistry rankings. For those who haven’t seen them yet, I suggest going here, but if you’d like to skip to the good part, the centerpiece of ESPN’s predictions about the 2014 season is that they adjusted them for team chemistry. The article actually (seriously, no really) says that the Tampa Bay Rays are projected to win 1.7 extra games this year because of chemistry. This will be enough to win them the AL East.

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Part five in a division-by-division dialogue leading up to Opening Day.

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Why the recovery from a traumatic event isn't always just a matter of surgery and stitches.

Last Wednesday night, something truly awful occurred in a spring training game between the Royals and Reds. In the sixth inning, Reds closer Aroldis Chapman was getting in some work and faced off against Royals catcher Salvador Perez. In the regular season, that matchup would be compelling stuff, but this was just a fake game, so no one thought much of it. You’ve probably seen the replay of what happened next: Perez squared one up and hit a line drive that caught Chapman in the face. Chapman was taken off the field by stretcher and the game was called off.

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March 17, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat

22

Russell A. Carleton

Or, would the Yankees be better off starting Derek Jeter or Brendan Ryan at shortstop?

Team captain and 39-year-old farewell tour participant Derek Jeter is currently the starting shortstop for the New York Yankees. That is the way of things and has been since I was in high school. But the Yankees also have Brendan Ryan on their roster. Ryan is a noted defensive wizard while Jeter is [must…not…make…Jeter fielding joke]. However, Ryan “hit” only .197/.255/.273 last year in 349 plate appearances. Is there a case to be made for Ryan as the starting shortstop based on his defensive prowess? Keep in mind that the Yankees could bury Ryan in the batting order to limit his exposure, move the ever-under-appreciated Brett Gardner up to the two-spot, pinch hit for Ryan late in the game, and enjoy that sweet glove for eight innings a night. Is that enough to overtake De-rek Je-ter?

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What new questions might MLBAM's forthcoming player-tracking technology inspire us to ask?

At the recent Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Santa Claus (dressed cleverly as Bob Bowman, CEO of MLB Advanced Media) delivered a new toy for us all to share—or at least the promise of a new toy, in 2015 or so. Santa Bowman announced that MLBAM has begun a project to put revolutionary—dare I say Orwellian?—tracking technology in every major league ballpark. For now, I’ll name it the HINZO System (High Information Nerdy Zootropic Online System) after former Indians second baseman Tommy Hinzo. It needs a name, and I grew up in Cleveland in the 1980s. Take that, Bill Pecota!

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And not because it's about the Cardinals.

I envy Sam Miller. He got to hold it in his hands. It. The book. That one. The Cardinal Way. I feel like I should whisper when I say its name. It might give me a magic power. Suddenly, I’ll be able to hit like Albert Pujols. Oh, right.

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February 24, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: But…He Finished Strong Last Season!

22

Russell A. Carleton

Does a strong stretch run in 2013 portend a successful 2014?

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve introduced the idea of estimating a player’s talent level at specific points in time, at least retrospectively, by using a moving average. The idea is that instead of simply assuming that at every plate appearance, a batter could be described by his seasonal average, we might allow that his true talent level varied over the course of a season.

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Rarely is the question asked: Is our hitters learning?

Last week, we discussed a new method for looking at how players change within a season. Baseball stats are normally denominated in years, but the problem with yearly stats is that they obscure any growth and development—or regression—that might have taken place. Six months is a long time. Players can change. This week, I want to look at how we might use that method to teach us something about the growth of individual players.

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February 11, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: When Sabermetrics Gets Personal

15

Russell A. Carleton

The importance of tailoring sabermetric studies to the individual.

Let’s try something.

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