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Russell A. Carleton |
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March 25, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Could the All-Bullpen Approach Actually Work? |
Considering all the pros and cons of a revolutionary way to structure a roster.
Baseball games come with built-in subtitles. Dwight Gooden vs. Roger Clemens in the 1986 World Series. Bob Gibson vs. Denny McClain in the 1968 World Series. Kyle Lohse vs. Ross Detwiler in Game 4 of the NLDS last year. It's one thing to see a game between the Yankees and Tigers, but it's an entirely different game if CC Sabathia is pitching against Justin Verlander. And no one ever subtitles the game A-Rod vs. Miguel Cabrera.
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March 21, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Is Brandon Inge Worth 10 Wins Behind Closed Doors? |
An attempt to quantify the effect a good clubhouse guy has on his teammates.
Brandon McCarthy thinks that Brandon Inge is worth 10 wins or so to a team behind closed doors. Jonny Gomes, too. Participating in a player panel at the SABR Analytics Conference earlier this month, McCarthy posited that if Inge and Gomes had been removed from the 2012 Oakland A's, they might have fallen from a 94-win team to a 70-win team, purely by virtue of being deprived of the effect the two players had in the clubhouse. According to WARP, Gomes was worth 2.2 wins last year, while Inge was worth 0.6. So, assuming that if neither had been on the team, they would have been replaced by... well, replacement level players, that means that Inge and Gomes somehow combined for 21.2 wins just by being good guys in the clubhouse.
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March 18, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: You Gotta Keep 'Em Separated |
Does separating starters of the same type in the same rotation make sense?
It's the time of year when managers start thinking about games that will actually count. Positional battles are heating up, because decisions need to be made. Opening Day starters are being named. Variations in lineups are being considered, for facing righties, lefties, and Pat Venditte. Your favorite team has spent the spring trying to decide between two players, both of whom are relative unknowns. Due to the 50/50/90 rule (when you have a 50/50 chance of getting something right by chance, you will get it wrong 90 percent of the time), they will pick the wrong utility infielder and the other guy will become a decent starter for some other team.
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March 11, 2013 5:10 am
Baseball Therapy: Maybe I'm Wrong |
Are sabermetricians too willing to blame their own mistakes on bad luck?
Well, this year's Sloan Sports Analytics Conference has come and gone, and I wasn't able to attend. Worse, I couldn't go to the SABR Analytics Conference either. Of course, I've followed along as best as I could, but there's no substitute for actually being in the room.
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March 4, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Of Dogs, Men, and Stolen Bases |
Can managers be conditioned to change their in-game tactics?
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March 4, 2013 4:59 am
BP Unfiltered: Daddy, What's Replacement Level? |
Having the hard talk about where replacement level comes from.
In the pages of yesterday’s Boston Globe, veteran sports reporter Bob Ryan declared war on WAR. We get that one a lot. But the unusual part of this particular declaration was that it was based on the belief that the “RP” in WARP—for “replacement player”—was a "judgment call" rather than the product of a mathematical formula. Ryan argued that the "replacement level" comparison, as currently constituted, is just a matter of opinion, and therefore arbitrary and unreliable. It's not often that we’re told that we’re not using enough math.
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February 26, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Can't Buy Me Chemistry? |
Do teams that stick together win together more often than high-turnover teams?
My wife and I have been married for seven and a half years. We dated for four years before that. There are days when it's eerie how in sync we are. We've gotten to the point where someone will say something and we’ll both look up and smile knowingly at each other because we’re both aware that the other's mind just went to the same obscure song lyric from 15 years ago. Yeah, I think we have some chemistry going.
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February 18, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: What Really Predicts Pitcher Injuries? |
Russell searches for a fact-based alternative to the Verducci Effect.
A couple of weeks ago, I took on the "Verducci Effect". Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has hypothesized that a pitcher who is under 25 years old and who had an increase in his workload of 30 innings or more in the previous season is at greater risk for injury or for a steep decline in performance. This is a great hypothesis, but for the fact that it is not actually true.
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February 11, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: How to Measure Clubhouse Chemistry |
How one might go about quantifying the heretofore unquantifiable.
This one is dedicated to the memory of my father-in-law, himself a biochemist. I once tried explaining baseball and sabermetrics to him (he was from Russia). He thought it was nice that I had such an interesting hobby. He will be missed.
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January 28, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect |
The final word on whether the popular theory holds water or is fatally flawed.
Last week, Sports Illustrated writer and Jason Parks man-crush Tom Verducci put out his annual column warning about a specific type of player: A young pitcher (25 or younger) who saw a significant increase in his workload in the previous season over the season before that (defined as an increase of at least 30 innings, including postseason and minor-league work). Verducci claims that this sort of pitcher is in danger of either a significant injury and/or a performance decline in 2013 because his 2012 was much busier than his 2011. It's a proposition that's become known as the Verducci Effect.
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January 21, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Pitchouts and My Underage Gambling Problem |
If it doesn't make sense to call for pitchouts, why do major-league managers keep doing it?
Last week, my colleague Sam Miller ran a few numbers on the pointless, yet poignant play that is the pitchout (a billion points to whomever catches that reference) and concluded that pitchouts are actually a net loser: they cost the defense/pitching team more in runs than they gain. Sure, individual pitchouts sometimes nab a would-be base stealer (and that's a good thing), but overall, managers guessed wrong so often that the expected payoff wasn't high enough to justify the strategy. Rule number one of strategic thinking is that just because you got lucky on a stupid bet, it doesn't negate the fact that it was a stupid bet.
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January 14, 2013 5:00 am
Baseball Therapy: Does Having a Veteran Around Help Young Players? |
Veteran players are often perceived to have a positive effect on their younger teammates, but can we see it in the stats?
Last week, I wrote a piece on the social development of young baseball players (and humans in general). In the piece, I suggested that one reason that teams might employ older players who are well past their prime, to the point where they are barely replacement level, is that there might be something to the "clubhouse guy" effect, particularly on young players. Players in their early 20s are going through a seldom recognized and only recently understood period of neurological development, and in addition to being baseball players are also trying to figure out how to be adults. There might be some value to having a guy around who is... well, already an adult. Someone who could take a young player under his wing.
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