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Russell A. Carleton 

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08-23

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2

Baseball Therapy: If I Had A Million Dollars
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-16

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29

Baseball Therapy: Rage Over Roids
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-09

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1

Baseball Therapy: Learning A New Position Is Free
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-03

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4

Baseball Therapy: What Would 7-Inning Baseball Look Like?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-26

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8

Baseball Therapy: Growing Zobrists
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-19

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4

Baseball Therapy: The Pink Elephant Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-06

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7

Baseball Therapy: ...Although I Have No Idea How We'd Measure That
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-28

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2

Baseball Therapy: Dollhouses and Sandboxes
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-23

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8

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

06-22

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5

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

06-21

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4

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

06-20

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5

The Perils Of MLB's Sorting System
by
Kate Morrison and Russell A. Carleton

05-31

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3

Baseball Therapy: The Knee
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-24

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4

Baseball Therapy: Framing the At-Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-17

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5

Prospectus Feature: The Only Rule Is You Have To Answer My Questions
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-11

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8

Baseball Therapy: The Even Slightly More Convincing Argument Against the Shift
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-03

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10

Baseball Therapy: The Pretty Good Case That the Shift Doesn't Work
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-27

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7

Baseball Therapy: Can Teams Come Back From a Comeback?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-19

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17

Baseball Therapy: The One About Exit Velocity
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-12

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5

Baseball Therapy: Somebody Is Finally Trying to Kill the Traditional Closer Role
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-07

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1

Baseball Therapy: Go Ahead, Call It a Comeback
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-05

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8

Baseball Therapy: Someone's Not Paying Attention
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-29

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7

Baseball Therapy: It Worked Last Time
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-22

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4

Baseball Therapy: Are You Cultured?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-15

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8

Baseball Therapy: Bringing Down The House
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-08

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1

Baseball Therapy: Should Someone Save Salvy?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-01

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19

Baseball Therapy: Let's Talk About Tax Policy
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-23

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13

Baseball Therapy: Is There a Times Through The Order Penalty?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-16

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7

Baseball Therapy: Do Bad PECOTA Projections Make Teams Mad?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-09

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13

Baseball Therapy: The Crack in the Defensive Spectrum
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-02

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20

Baseball Therapy: The Dark Side of Pitch Framing?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-26

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6

Baseball Therapy: It's Nice to Have Options
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-19

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2

Baseball Therapy: Let's Figure Out What a Scouting Department's Entire Product is Worth
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-12

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7

Baseball Therapy: Put Russell In the Hall of Fame
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-05

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12

Baseball Therapy: Now With 50 Percent Less Math
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-31

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2

Best of BP 2015: Why Not Make the Hole Square?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-22

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8

Baseball Therapy: We Can Be Heroes?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-16

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17

Baseball Therapy: Have We Been Underpricing Relievers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-08

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6

Baseball Therapy: Fiddlesticks, Yeah!
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-01

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5

Baseball Therapy: The Neuropsychology of Bad Managing
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-24

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7

Baseball Therapy: The Kimbrel Gambit
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-19

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6

Baseball Therapy: What Should the QO Number Be?
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-10

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3

Baseball Therapy: I Want to Write About Player Development
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-03

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8

Baseball Therapy: How Much the DH Rule Matters
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-28

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8

Baseball Therapy: And on the Fifth Day He Rested
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-20

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5

Baseball Therapy: Say You'll Remember Me
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-13

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14

Baseball Therapy: Do We Still Need Divisions?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-06

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9

Baseball Therapy: My Bad Baseball Predictions
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-29

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6

Baseball Therapy: Let Him Pitch!
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-23

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Going Streaking
by
Russell A. Carleton

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Moving the strike zone up seems a simple, elegant solution to what ails offense. But won't anybody think of the unintended consequences!?

Last week, Major League Baseball announced a proposed change to the strike zone. In response to a zone that continued to sag downward, MLB’s competition committee has recommended that the definition of the bottom boundary of the strike zone be changed from the hollow under the kneecap to the top of the knee. It doesn’t seem like much. That’s maybe two inches of space, although the actual called strike zone has always differed somewhat from the rulebook strike zone, but if the changes are put into effect for 2017, then pitchers might be feeling a little more squeezed next year.

Read the full article...

Is Tony Wolters the answer to 24 years of mile-high pitching woes?

Good-framing catchers, as best as we can define them, seem to have magical powers. They can “steal” extra strikes for their pitchers, and while it might not seem like much in the moment to get an extra borderline call, it adds up. The generally accepted consensus has been that the top framers can save their team 20 runs compared to a merely average framer. Compared to the bottom of the barrel, that swing is 40 runs. When the general public figured out how big that effect was, they rightly made a big deal about it. (When teams found out, they quietly made a big deal out of it. In fact, in Francisco Cervelli’s case, they just made more than 30 million big deals about it.)

Read the full article...

Russell sits down with Ben and Sam to discuss the experience of writing and living through their best-selling book, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work.

This one is special. Many of the people reading this article have already bought and read the book The Only Rule Is It Has to Work, by Baseball Prospectus’s own editor-in-chief, Sam Miller and our former editor-in-chief, Ben Lindbergh, about the summer they spent running the Pacific Association’s Sonoma Stompers. And somewhere in the blitz of press that they have been doing to promote the book, they took some time to chat with me.

As we were setting up before the interview, I apologized in advance for the fact that I am not a real journalist, and I’ve never really done a sit-down interview like this before. The only model that I really had to draw from was my time when I worked as a therapist. I told them that the only rule was that they had to answer my questions.

(And yeah, there are a few spoilers in here…)

I don’t know that I can properly plug the book in a way that hasn’t already been done, but I will try. There’s a certain fantasy that someday, if we just yell loud enough, teams, managers, fans, and everyone else will stop doing all of the irrational things that we yell loudly about. This book made me think, “Huh, maybe I’m the one who needs to stop yelling.”

***

Russell: I think that most of the readers at Baseball Prospectus know the story of how the project was conceived. I think a good place for us to start would be during the gestational period. There was a point where you had sent all the e-mails and phone calls and everyone had signed off, and there was probably a moment of “Oh dear, what am I getting myself into?” But then there was some preparation before, Ben, you took the cross-country flight and Sam, you got into your Honda Fit and drove out to Sonoma. Tell me about how you prepared for what you thought was about to happen.

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The super-cool, super-modern, super-fun strategy that might not be doing anything.

Last week, we looked into The Shift and whether it was actually doing what we said it was supposed to do, which is to be a better way of getting hitters, especially pull-happy hitters (and double especially groundball-heavy, pull-happy, left-handed hitters) to make more outs. The traditional story of The Shift is that because those hitters are going to be sending most of their ground balls to one side of the field, why not put more fielders over that way?

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Reevaluating the shiny new toy.

Here’s a cheeky question that I ask in complete sincerity: How many home runs were hit against The Shift last year? I’m sure someone out there knows the answer to the question, but there are probably more people wondering why I even bothered to ask it. If the ball was hit over the wall, what does it matter whether The Shift was on or not? Either way, the fielders weren’t going to be able to get to it.

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Testing the belief that ninth-inning losses hurt more.

There’s nothing more thrilling in baseball than a ninth-inning comeback. Unless, of course, it’s your team being victimized by the comeback. Then, there’s nothing worse. To have fought for eight innings and held the lead, only to have the game snatched away in the ninth. It might leave the other team breathless, but it will leave you with a nasty scar.

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'The implications of this are kinda big.'

It’s 2016 and Statcast is everyone’s favorite new toy. It’s not exactly a new toy, of course. Bits and pieces of the system were rolled out in 2014 and last year, there were plenty of chances for the data to make themselves known on game broadcasts. Baseball fans have begun to absorb a new set of numbers as they watch the game. Unlike some of the “advanced” stats that have come before Statcast, these are numbers that a lot of people had actively wondered about, but had very little ability to measure. How fast was he running on that play? That looked like a long way to run to make that catch, but how long was it?

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But will Arodys Vizcaino and the Braves move the needle?

If you made a list of the top six or seven stories from the first week of the 2016 season, I suppose that Trevor Story would be the top, uh, you know. Spaces 2 through 6 or 7 would be taken up by Bryce Harper’s hat, John Gibbons’ choice of gametime attire, Kyle Schwarber’s injury, Andrew McCutchen hitting in the no. 2 spot for the Pirates, Noah Syndergaard’s 95 mph slider, and perhaps Stephen Strasburg’s slider that doesn’t actually exist.

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Why your team's hopes aren't dead by the eighth inning, and why baseball isn't either.

Is the dramatic comeback dead? Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated thinks that it is, and that it’s because teams have loaded up their bullpen with power-armed specialists who are just so good that if a team gets to the late innings with a lead, they are more likely to keep it, and thus scuttle the chances for someone to make a dramatic comeback in the late innings. A lot of the great games in baseball history involve late-inning heroics and comebacks from the brink. Everyone loves a comeback, but Verducci suggests that if the comeback becomes a lost art, it will suck all the life out of baseball.

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It's not surprising that more players are getting Therapeutic Use Exemptions than we would, statistically, expect. The system is set up to allow it.

Something is very wrong with the Joint Drug Agreement in Major League Baseball.

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Does success make Jack a predictable boy?

There’s an endless game of cat and mouse to be played among pitchers and batters. Ted Williams famously said that hitting a baseball was the hardest thing to do in all of sports, but what makes it so hard? Sure, hitting something that small traveling that fast with a blunt instrument takes Olympian levels of reaction time, hand-eye coordination, and raw strength, but put even a decent minor-league hitter up against a pitching machine that is “throwing” 95 mph and eventually, he’ll start squaring it up every single time.

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The question of cultural competence is one of the struggles that will define the next generation of Sabermetrics.

"The game is becoming a freaking joke because of the nerds who are running it. I'll tell you what has happened, these guys played Rotisserie baseball at Harvard or wherever the f--- they went and they thought they figured the f---ing game out. They don't know s---.” – Goose Gossage, March 11, 2016.

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