CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Russell A. Carleton 

Search Articles by Russell A. Carleton

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

10-16

comment icon

10

BP Unfiltered: If I Had $200 Million
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-14

comment icon

8

Baseball Therapy: The Other Playoff Myths
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-08

comment icon

4

BP Unfiltered: The Cardinals' Flickering Magic Lantern
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-07

comment icon

3

Baseball Therapy: Sure As Day Follows Night...
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-07

comment icon

9

Baseball Therapy: The Cardinals Do Not Own Clayton Kershaw
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-30

comment icon

8

Baseball Therapy: The Wild Card Penalty
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-29

comment icon

8

Baseball Therapy: There Is No Derek Jeter Conspiracy
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-23

comment icon

21

Baseball Therapy: Will StatCast Cure Our Defensive Metric Blues?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-16

comment icon

4

Baseball Therapy: Starving Young Royals, Battle-Tested Tigers, and an Unsquarable Circle
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-09

comment icon

24

Baseball Therapy: Poisoned by Losing?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-04

comment icon

10

Baseball Therapy: I Guess You Just Throw The Next Pitch
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-27

comment icon

7

BP Unfiltered: Playing Favorites
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-26

comment icon

18

Baseball Therapy: How Billy Beane Built the Royals
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-19

comment icon

13

Baseball Therapy: Becoming An Adult f/x
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-12

comment icon

28

Baseball Therapy: I Believe In Clutch Hitting
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-05

comment icon

6

Baseball Therapy: Big Extension, Big Mistake?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-30

comment icon

15

BP Unfiltered: The Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Rarities
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-29

comment icon

15

Baseball Therapy: Trading Ryan Howard For Nothing and Winning
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-15

comment icon

51

Baseball Therapy: Why Are We Playing Hunger Games with Minor Leaguers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-08

comment icon

7

Baseball Therapy: What is a Fast Runner Worth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-04

comment icon

0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 485: Trading Within the Division
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

07-03

comment icon

0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 484: Kiley McDaniel Explains the International Signing Period
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

07-01

comment icon

4

Baseball Therapy: Do Some Pitches Do More Damage Than Others?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-24

comment icon

17

Baseball Therapy: Is it Really Harder to Scout in New England?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-19

comment icon

12

Baseball Therapy: Should You Trust the Projections?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-17

comment icon

7

Baseball Therapy: What High School Has to Do with Tommy John
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-13

comment icon

3

Baseball Therapy: What You Can Do With Your Old Baseball Cards
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-10

comment icon

4

Baseball Therapy: Can Draft Lightning Be Bottled?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-03

comment icon

19

Baseball Therapy: Introducing My Daughter to Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-30

comment icon

16

Baseball Therapy: The Hard Part About Preventing Tommy John Surgeries
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-27

comment icon

13

Baseball Therapy: The Annual Amateur Draft Guessing Game
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-20

comment icon

7

Baseball Therapy: Beware the Genius Tag for Coaches
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-13

comment icon

7

Baseball Therapy: Analytical Master or Leader of Men?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-07

comment icon

0

BP Unfiltered: Baseball Prospectus at Fox Sports: The Statistical Impact of Instant Replay
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-06

comment icon

5

Baseball Therapy: Is Oakland's Run Differential for Real?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-29

comment icon

11

Baseball Therapy: Do Innings Limits Work?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-22

comment icon

8

Baseball Therapy: The Houdini Hangover Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-17

comment icon

1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 430: Dirk Hayhurst on Cheating, Beaning, and Clubhouse Race Relations
by
Ben Lindbergh and Russell A. Carleton

04-15

comment icon

16

Baseball Therapy: Why Sabermetrics Needs Translational Research
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-07

comment icon

9

Baseball Therapy: Beware of the Intentional Walk?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-03

comment icon

8

BP Unfiltered: So What Was Daniel Murphy Doing in the Delivery Room?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-01

comment icon

14

Baseball Therapy: The Complete Value of a Complete Game
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-01

comment icon

17

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing Mongolian Yak Racing Prospectus
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

comment icon

15

Baseball Therapy: Advances in Chemistry?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

comment icon

7

Prospectus Preview: NL West 2014 Preseason Preview
by
Russell A. Carleton and Daniel Rathman

03-24

comment icon

5

Baseball Therapy: The Complicated Recoveries of Aroldis Chapman and Salvador Perez
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-17

comment icon

22

Baseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-10

comment icon

13

Baseball Therapy: The Baseball Questions We're About to Be Asking
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-04

comment icon

9

Baseball Therapy: Why The Cardinal Way is the Most Important Book in Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-24

comment icon

22

Baseball Therapy: But…He Finished Strong Last Season!
by
Russell A. Carleton

<< Previous Author Entries No More Author Entries

Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum.

Congratulations to Andrew Friedman, new President for Baseball Operationsfor the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (and shhhh don't tell anyone, but he's really the new GM). Can I just assume that readers of this website are familiar with his handiwork in Tampa Bay? If not, there's a book by some Expos fan who used to work here that gives a rough overview of the topic.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 14, 2014 1:41 am

Baseball Therapy: The Other Playoff Myths

8

Russell A. Carleton

A prequel to the much-anticipated "The Other Other Other Other Playoff Myths," because really, the myths go forever...

We live in a world where the Kansas City Royals are on the doorstep of the World Series. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. (Jon Heyman of CBS and Steve Wulf of ESPN did!) There were plenty of people at the beginning of the year who were willing to make the “outlandish” prediction that the Royals might sneak in and grab a Wild Card (they did!) but the World Series? Baseball is full of surprises.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Can you believe the Cardinals have made it through so many postseasons without ever having luck, fortitude, or clutchness go against them? No, you can't.

Dear Mr. Rosenthal,

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 7, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Sure As Day Follows Night...

3

Russell A. Carleton

During a day game after a night game, players must miss their old amphetamine pickup, right?

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Or do they!? (No.)

We begin here with a Tweet sent out by former MLB player-turned-pundit Marlon Anderson

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

September 30, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: The Wild Card Penalty

8

Russell A. Carleton

Does the wild card winner have a worse chance of advancing out of the LDS than if they didn't have to win a wild card game first?

It’s time for some Wild Cards! Tonight, the A’s will face off against the Royals. Someone will win the game, and their prize will be an all-expenses-paid trip to Anaheim for a best-of-five series against the Angels. The Royals will send James Shields to the mound and the A’s will counter with Jon Lester. No matter who wins, that team will not be able to call upon their ace until Game 3 of that Angels series. Good luck, fellas.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

September 29, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: There Is No Derek Jeter Conspiracy

8

Russell A. Carleton

Move it along, nothing to see.

Flash back to last Thursday night at Yankee Stadium. In a year that had already been improbable, the impossible happened. (Yeah, I know.) Derek Jeter, in his final game at Yankee Stadium, with the crowd chanting his name in four beats, singled through the right side in the bottom of the ninth inning to plate pinch runner Antoan Richardson and give the Yankees a walk-off 6-5 win. Captain Clutch came through one last time in front of the home crowd. It was one of those baseball moments that make you tingle. It’s one of those reasons I love the game. It was ... staged?

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Single-year outfield defense might be an intractable problem.

Remember a few weeks ago when Alex Gordon was leading the American League in WAR? No one questions that Gordon is having a(nother) really good season and should rightly get some down-ballot MVP votes, but the best player in the American League? People quickly noticed that a good chunk of Gordon’s WAR came from his defensive ratings, where, at the time, he was picking up roughly two wins worth of value in left field. Gordon’s regarded as a good left fielder, but “good left fielder” is also the “great personality” of fielding aficionados.

Read the full article...

Don't believe everything you read, especially when it comes to playoff cliches.

It’s going to be a barnburner of a race in the AL Central. The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers are running neck and neck to be champions of Middle America. Obviously, the Tigers have the advantage because they’ve “been there before.” The Tigers have been to the ALCS the past three years, and have been through their share of pennant races. The team is filled with seasoned veterans who now know how to manage a pennant race because of their vast experience. In a stunning feat of doublethink, the Kansas City Royals also have an advantage. The Royals' last trip to the playoffs was when “1984” meant “last year.” Come to think of it, the Royals' playoff drought is older than most of the Royals’ regulars. But because they have a team of young guys, they are hungry. Starving really. They’re just a fun bunch of young guys who don’t know they should be scared. They play loose. Their lack of experience is actually their greatest asset.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

The Astros have lost a lot by design. Are they going to pay an on-field price?

Well, the Astros made news again last week by firing manager Bo Porter. According to media reports, which is the adult way of saying “I heard it from Larry in algebra class,” it was due to disagreements between Porter and general manager Jeff Luhnow. There seems to be a lot of that around nowadays. The Astros will break their streak of consecutive 100 loss seasons this year, but there’s no doubt it’s been rough for the past few years on the Gulf Coast of Texas. Luhnow is now the wampeter of the baseball karass (a billion points for that reference) and, strangely for such a mild-mannered guy, might be the most polarizing figure in the game today. Whether it’s fair or not, a narrative has developed around the Astros that their ruthless rebuild, while it may eventually prove effective, is an exercise in masochism. Sure, they needed to be rebuilt and rebuilds involve pain, but aren’t they playing Breaking Madden with a real live baseball team?

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

September 4, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: I Guess You Just Throw The Next Pitch

10

Russell A. Carleton

How do pitchers react in the immediate aftermath of a homer?

A few weeks ago, I had the honor of presenting some research at SaberSeminar in Boston to a room full of sabermetric luminaries (also, Mike Ferrin was there!) and one guy who was really confused about why no one was talking about swords. The seminar itself was a joy but, of course, given that I was in Boston and within walking distance of Fenway Park, it would have been a shame not to go to a game. It was my first time at Fenway, and if you haven’t yet been, it is worth the trip from anywhere. TV doesn’t do it justice.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

What does it take to be more than 50 percent likely to win the World Series?

I do love me some Wednesday e-mail show Effectively Wild. Today, someone asked a fantastic question about the playoffs. How good would a team have to be in the regular season to, before the first pitch of the playoffs is thrown, be considered the mathematical favorite to win the World Series versus the field. There will be ten teams that make the playoffs this year (OK, fine, lest we defile the sanctity of the Wild Card, there will be eight). One of them will have the best chances of the eight/ten, and would theoretically be the favorite, but its chances might be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 percent to be taking a champagne championship shower in late October. That means that the best team has an 80 percent chance of winning a participant trophy instead.

Read the full article...

<< Previous Author Entries No More Author Entries