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Rob Mains 

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03-23

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4

Flu-Like Symptoms: Has the Modern Bullpen Killed Late-Inning Comebacks? (Part Two)
by
Rob Mains

03-20

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0

BP Unfiltered: Enter the Vogelsong Awards Contest
by
Rob Mains

03-20

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0

Flu-Like Symptoms: Has the Modern Bullpen Killed Late-Inning Comebacks? (Part One)
by
Rob Mains

03-17

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2

Looking Back on Tomorrow: Houston Astros
by
Rob Mains

03-16

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3

Flu-Like Symptoms: One Not-So-Fine Day: Reliever Edition
by
Rob Mains

03-14

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9

Looking Back on Tomorrow: Pittsburgh Pirates
by
Rob Mains

03-13

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35

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Strategic Argument Against the DH
by
Rob Mains

03-10

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4

Flu-Like Symptoms: Power and Speed
by
Rob Mains

03-06

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11

Flu-Like Symptoms: One Not-So-Fine Day
by
Rob Mains

03-01

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3

Flu-Like Symptoms: In (Restrained) Praise of Dave Stewart
by
Rob Mains

02-20

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9

Flu-Like Symptoms: Fit to be Tied
by
Rob Mains

02-16

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8

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Profitability Canard
by
Rob Mains

02-13

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9

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Year of the Balk
by
Rob Mains

02-09

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15

Flu-Like Symptoms: Slaying the Extra-Innings Dragon
by
Rob Mains

02-07

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16

Flu-Like Symptoms: PECOTA and Moving Markets
by
Rob Mains

02-06

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1

Flu-Like Symptoms: Counting Cardinals
by
Rob Mains

02-02

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0

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Team Hitting
by
Rob Mains

01-30

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2

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Team Pitching
by
Rob Mains

01-26

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0

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Command
by
Rob Mains

01-23

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2

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Control
by
Rob Mains

01-19

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2

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Pitchers' Plate Discipline
by
Rob Mains

01-16

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9

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Hitters' Plate Discipline
by
Rob Mains

01-12

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3

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Ground-ball Pitchers
by
Rob Mains

01-09

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3

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Ground-ball Hitters
by
Rob Mains

01-05

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12

Flu-Like Symptoms: New Year's Resolutions: Going the Other Way
by
Rob Mains

12-28

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2

Best of BP 2016: One Entire Season Of Baseball From the 1970s
by
Rob Mains

12-24

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2

Transaction Analysis: Ivan to Stay in Pittsburgh
by
Rob Mains

12-20

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7

Flu-Like Symptoms: How Versatility Became Cool
by
Rob Mains

12-16

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17

Flu-Like Symptoms: Will the Owners Actually Spend Their Money?
by
Rob Mains

12-12

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10

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Compilers
by
Rob Mains

12-05

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2

Flu-Like Symptoms: Pirates Postmortem
by
Rob Mains

11-29

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14

Flu-Like Symptoms: The World Series of Coin Flipping
by
Rob Mains

11-28

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0

Transaction Analysis: Vesatility, Depth, and Scenery
by
Bryan Grosnick and Rob Mains

11-22

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1

Flu-Like Symptoms: The 300-300 Club
by
Rob Mains

11-17

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13

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Singles Scene Turns Bleak
by
Rob Mains

11-15

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2

Flu-Like Symptoms: Where Did All The Running Go?
by
Rob Mains

11-09

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6

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Annual Vogelsong Awards
by
Rob Mains

10-24

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9

Flu-Like Symptoms: Andrew Miller Is Not Goose Gossage
by
Rob Mains

10-15

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1

Playoff Prospectus: Turning Down the Volume
by
Rob Mains

10-14

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11

Flu-Like Symptoms: Dusting Off a Bill James Postseason Prediction System
by
Rob Mains

10-13

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0

Flu-Like Symptoms: Uncaught Third Strikes and Poor Mickey Owen
by
Rob Mains

10-04

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10

Flu-Like Symptoms: Five Things You (Probably) Didn’t Know About the 2016 Season
by
Rob Mains

10-03

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1

Flu-Like Symptoms: September Vogelsong Awards
by
Rob Mains

09-27

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2

Flu-Like Symptoms: Giant Collapse
by
Rob Mains

09-22

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6

Flu-Like Symptoms: A Matter of Luck, Pt. 2
by
Rob Mains

09-19

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7

Flu-Like Symptoms: All a Matter of Luck
by
Rob Mains

09-09

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0

Prospectus Feature: Burning Up The Track In September, Part 2
by
Rob Mains

09-08

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5

Prospectus Feature: The Giants Are Making History!
by
Rob Mains

09-05

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0

BP Unfiltered: It's the Penultimate Vogelsongs!
by
Rob Mains

09-01

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2

Prospectus Feature: Burning Up the Track in September
by
Rob Mains

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Tire-spinning, one inning at a time.

Note: This article, and the one that preceded it this week, is based on a presentation I made at the Society for American Baseball Research Analytics Conference in Phoenix this month. You can hear the audio here, and follow along with the slides here, should you desire. Fortunately, there is no video.

Part Two: The Legacy of the Modern Bullpen

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The best of the rest.

Last year, we established the Vogelsong Awards to honor the best players who didn not appear in the BP Annual. Every month, I identified one hitter and one pitcher whose performance earned them a Full Vogelsong Award. (There's also a Lineout Vogelsong Award for players whose Annual entry is only a short "lineout" at the end of each team summary.)

Read the full article...

Bullpens are better than ever, but comebacks aren't totally dead.

Note: This article (and the one that will follow it later this week) is based on a presentation I made at the Society for American Baseball Research Analytics Conference in Phoenix. You can hear the audio here, and follow along with the slides here, should you desire. Fortunately, there is no video.

Part One: The Modern Bullpen

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Houston is a small-market team no more.

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March 16, 2017 6:00 am

Flu-Like Symptoms: One Not-So-Fine Day: Reliever Edition

3

Rob Mains

Do really terrible appearances for relievers cloud their long-term outlooks?

Earlier this month, I wrote an article that was based on a post that Mitchel Lichtman (aka MGL), sabermetrician and co-author of The Book, wrote on his blog, MGL on Baseball. MGL explored the question—I’m quoting from his title here—“What does it mean when a pitcher has a few really bad starts that mess with his ERA?”

If you already read my initial post, or MGL’s, you can skip to the next paragraph. If not, MGL’s conclusion was, briefly, that if a starting pitcher has two or three really terrible starts—really terrible defined here as eight or more runs allowed in five or fewer innings—that contribute to a season-long runs against average (RA9) of 5.00 or higher, we’re likely to overshoot our projection of the pitcher’s ERA for the subsequent season by 0.2 or 0.3.

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Time to turn the page in Pittsburgh?

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March 13, 2017 6:00 am

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Strategic Argument Against the DH

35

Rob Mains

Things have changed a lot since 1973 and it's time to update the arguments.

Last week I attended the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix. The Society for American Baseball Research, as I assume you know, is dedicated to researching the game. Many of you are SABR members, as am I. This isn’t an advertisement (though it is a great organization!); I just wanted to provide the background.

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March 10, 2017 6:00 am

Flu-Like Symptoms: Power and Speed

4

Rob Mains

Using a Bill James metric on a broader scale.

Bill James popularized sabermetrics. Hell, he coined the term. Several of his measures, like runs created, are still in popular use today, and his work has formed the basis for many sabermetric advances. But James created other measures that combine whimsy with measurement.

One is the power/speed number. It attempts to identify players who excel at both. It’s a simple formula: 2 x (HR x SB) / (SB +HR). That’s not #gorymath; it’s not even #goryalgebra, even if you add that it represents the harmonic mean of home runs and stolen bases.

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March 6, 2017 6:00 am

Flu-Like Symptoms: One Not-So-Fine Day

11

Rob Mains

For which pitchers did a few bad outings color our perception?

Mitchel Lichtman (aka MGL), sabermetrician and co-author of The Book, recently had a post on his blog that I liked a lot for two reasons.

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March 1, 2017 6:00 am

Flu-Like Symptoms: In (Restrained) Praise of Dave Stewart

3

Rob Mains

The pitcher, not the general manager. (They're the same guy.)

Dave Stewart was in the news recently. As the agent for National League co-home run leader and whiffmeister Chris Carter, he ruminated that his client could play in Japan this season until he wound up signing with the Yankees.

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Testing an approach to extra innings.

I’m going to talk about games that last longer than nine innings. Don’t worry, this isn’t another article about putting a baserunner on second base in extra innings.

Read the full article...

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February 16, 2017 6:00 am

Flu-Like Symptoms: The Profitability Canard

8

Rob Mains

How Jeffrey Loria undermines baseball ownership.

Jeffrey Loria, as you may have heard, is selling the Miami Marlins. Nothing’s finalized, but it appears that one of baseball’s most, um, notable owners is going to receive $1.6 billion for a team that cost him $158 million in 2002. (I know, it didn’t really cost him that. Hang on, I’m getting there.)

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