SABR member Rob McQuown is a lifelong Cubs fan who was inspired by a Bill James Abstract to join STATS, Inc., where he was first published in the The Scouting Report, 1993. Since then, neither starting up multiple dot-coms or years in big corporate life could pull him convincingly away from his first love, baseball. Getting restarted in the industry in 2006 with Baseball Daily Digest, he was welcomed to the Baseball Prospectus team when BDD became a subsidiary of BP - as a programmer and writer, and has contributed extensive web content with both words and programs for numerous sites.
BP begins to roll out its projections and fantasy tools for the 2013 season.
Welcome to the initial launch of this year’s PECOTA forecasts. We hope you find them enlightening, useful, and predictive.
Let’s start with the business aspects of things. In order to access the PECOTA forecasts, you need to be a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus. Monthly subscribers will have access to certain PECOTA features but will not have access to downloads like the PECOTA spreadsheets. The best value we offer is a yearly subscription, which not only gives you access to the full PECOTA product offering, but also unrestricted access to our extensive prospect coverage, R.J. Anderson’s Transaction Analysis, in-depth analysis from the likes of Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and more, and the latest in baseball research from the likes of Russell Carleton and myself. If you feel you can pass on that, we offer our lower-priced Fantasy subscription, which give you full access to the PECOTA products and all fantasy-focused articles on the site.
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For some readers who use Internet Explorer, the existence of a "Post Reply" button on comments must have seemed rather confusing, as it didn't do anything when clicked, and replies had to be entered using the box below all the other comments. From the best we can tell, this issue cropped up when IE8 was released, so it's been around for a very long time (as Internet time goes).
This has the same mouseover capability as the Depth Charts, so that if you mouse over WARP for Baltimore catchers, you see the breakout for Wieters, Paulino, and Exposito, for example. Note that there are 4 stats available: WARP, TAv, FRAA, BRR.
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Speedsters are the theme of this week's outfield VP with Revere and Brantley joining the crew.
Despite booting Dayan Viciedo and his .381 week with two home runs, the Value Picks outfielders hit a composite .295/.390/.477 this past week with five home runs and five stolen bases. With the three leadoff hitters combining for two runs batted in (neither Jarrod Dyson nor Denard Span had any), the group still managed 18 RBI while scoring 28 runs. Obviously, results may vary from week to week, but this is the sort of “found money” that can be realized when Value Picks work out.
Ibanez, Reddick, and Dyson get the VP label this week
There was a common perception that Jayson Werth is injury prone, but he went almost four years between stints on the disabled list (his previous being May 23, 2008). His loss hurts fantasy owners, though not nearly as much as it is likely to hurt the on-base-challenged Nationals. Meanwhile, mixed-league afterthought Rick Ankiel becomes a much better risk; the team really needs his power, even if he brings little else to the table offensively. In the fantasy realm, however, owners can do a lot better when searching for a replacement in most league formats, which is where Value Picks comes in...
Tony Campana joins Span, Viciedo, and Murphy on VP this week
It's a good thing most leagues don't count slugging percentage as a category, since the three picks from last week slugged a combined .278 over the past seven days. Fortunately, our much-discussed hero (at least in the comments), Michael Saunders, hit three homers, so good work anyone who had him active. Also, Gerardo Parra continued his wanton running, swiping three bases, and they say steals are more important when slugging is down.
This just in: Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton are good. While this column was one of the few sources to advise taking Kemp number one overall this season, it would be too easy—and misleading—to claim complete success in this piece of advice. After all, he's not going to hit .450 with 100 homers this season, and he hasn't been running nearly as much as he did last year. Such is the way of early-season predictions. A nameless author (ahem) picked the Nationals to finish last in the NL East, and while that prediction looks ridiculous in the early going, the Nats' success has had some measure of flukiness to it as well: playing weaker teams so far, out-performing their Pythagenport win projection, good health (the prediction was made after Storen was known to be injured), etc. The meta advice now is to capitalize on people who read too much into these hot (or cold) starts, to trade high or buy low.
Viciedo, Murphy, and Schafer make a very intriguing initial VP class for the 2012 season
Back from a writing hiatus, your source for obscure outfielder observations returns with the baseball regular season, and a return to the usual format for Value Picks, as described by Michael StreetTuesday. Before we get started, however, since I received so much mail (thanks, Mom) asking about my draft in the Fantasy Pros 911 Expert League on Wednesday, here's the squad. Wish me luck; first place prize is a cruise:
Baseball Prospectus is hiring. There are currently two positions open for detail-oriented people with SQL expertise with strong written communication skills. Familiarity with advanced baseball statistics is a big plus. The work will be remote and the hours very flexible, with a minimum expectation of about 20 hours/week.
Baseball Prospectus is hiring. There are currently two positions open for detail-oriented people with SQL expertise and strong written communication skills. Familiarity with advanced baseball statistics is a big plus. The work will be remote and the hours very flexible, with a minimum expectation of about 20 hours/week.
Baseball Prospectus has become even more Scoresheet Baseball-friendly in 2012. Check out the new features, in time for public league drafts!
A month ago, Baseball Prospectus introduced the Scoresheet Draft Aid to help Scoresheet Baseball players with their drafts. Since then, the most common piece of feedback by Scoresheet players who have used it is that it's "too good" and that it levels the playing field, erasing the edge that can be gained by an opponent through hours, days, or even months of research. Now, to put that to the test, Scoresheet players who are in the final rounds of their public league drafts can try it out for free for three days, from March 21-23.
NEW: Spring Training stats: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/tt/spring/ (temporarily available from Team Tracker)
Not that anyone at Baseball Prospectus would be so shortsighted as to look at spring training stats when preparing for an important fantasy draft, but, um, connecting the Team Tracker to a sortable/searchable display of Spring Training statistics might have come out of such an endeavor.
Fowler, Harper, Bay, and J.D. Martinez make the cut for OF VP this week
Some of us have been sleeping this spring, including this author, who has been sleeping on baseball goingsons more than I'd like, due to other obligations. But, in researching Value Picks this week, the real sleepers have been those fantasy owners who have allowed Dayan Viciedo's ADP to move from 215 to 283. If that includes you, dear reader, then wake up! He was a bargain at 215!