How the mighty have fallen. This author's mock Scoresheet draft (you can see the results here—Scoresheet drafts are very slow) provided an early holiday present, with Jason Heyward dropping all the way to the third round! Likewise, another hot outfielder a year ago, Colby Rasmus, dropped to the fifth round, though Freddie Freeman and Mike Moustakas seemed to be better fits for yours truly's team at the time, and another owner ended up with Rasmus. It's a good reminder that now is the time to go get those players who had “down” seasons but might rebound strongly.

Jason Kubel | Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP 239)
Shallow (30 keepers): NO
Medium (60 keepers): NO
Deep (90 keepers): NO
NL-only (60 keepers): NO
Super Deep (200 keepers): BORDERLINE

Scoresheet baseball is a completely different animal from standard fantasy baseball; it's a simulation, with the goal to win games (with actual box scores, batter-pitcher matchups, etc., as opposed to points and categories). But good ballplayers are good ballplayers, and participation in a mock draft starting last Saturday (http://bit.ly/rGQ4xS - Scoresheet drafts are very slow) has led to lots of discussion among the mock drafters about the relative “keeper values” of players.  In standard Scoresheet, up to 13 players can be kept (more if you include minor-leaguers), and participants tend to play for the long term, though NBC Sports' Matthew Pouliot wrote about how now-GM Alex Anthopoulos turned a 49-113 disaster into a 111-51 champion the next season. With 32 picks in the books as of this writing, the outfielders taken so far are going to be guys with immense long-term potential, but stay tuned as the draft progresses (ever so slowly).

In other news, yes, Ryan Braun is still a keeper, though it's best to keep up on the ever-growing number of versions of Jay Jaffe's Ryan Braun reports to be sure (up to version nine as of now).

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Per the Wikipedia entry, author Ray Bradbury “has stated that the novel [Fahrenheit 451] is not about censorship, but a story about how television destroys interest in reading literature, which leads to a perception of knowledge as being composed of factoids, partial information devoid of context.” In a world where the very notion of a “book” may soon go the way of the rotary phone and the “LP”, can people really relate to “Hot Stove” anymore?  When a well-known national media personality makes the mistake of tweeting that a team re-signed its own superstar shortstop, it's patently obvious that most analysis these days is of the microwave variety. But Keeper Reaper is back to provide more information, complete with context, and is the best protection against getting burned this winter in fantasy league preparation.

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431
Medium (12-team mixed, 4 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432
AL-Only (12-team AL-only, 5 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434
NL-Only (12-team NL-only, 5 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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It's been a long time coming, but managerial stats are now live for both the 2010 and 2011 seasons!

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For a baseball season which threatened to have about as little drama as an episode of Emeril Live until the final week, the high drama continues in a hotly contested World Series.  For some leagues, keeper decisions need to be made by the time dessert is finished in the season, and so the other 28 teams get some attention before trading begins in earnest.  Whether a deadline looms or not, keeper advice can help make a team into a dynasty.

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431
Medium (12-team mixed, 4 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432
NL-Only (12-team NL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435
AL-Only (12-team AL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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Starting off on a tangent, the Player Forecast Manager has been updated with 2011 final stats, as many have already noted in this blog post: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15322. This is good news for discussing keepers. In fact, for easy reference, here are direct links to the PFM reports for the various league sizes used in Keeper Reaper (note that minimum dollars have been set to $5 so that the reports display faster – this can be extended to include players who had worse 2011 seasons, if desired):

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431
Medium (12-team mixed, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432
NL-Only (12-team NL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435
AL-Only (12-team AL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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Season final stats are now available in the Player Forecast Manager (PFM) and on the Player Cards.  

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Welcome to the off-season here at Baseball Prospectus Fantasy! This week, you'll notice our writers transitioning from our in-season Value Picks column to The Keeper Reaper, which will likely run through October and November. While many owners who play in redraft fantasy baseball leagues take a breather over the next couple of months, we know that keeper league owners are active year-round and are always looking for advice.  As such, this column should be of great use to keeper league owners who are trying to decide which players are worth keeping for the 2012 season and which should be thrown back. The goal of keeping a player is to reap as much excess value as possible, and The Keeper Reaper will help you to do so.

If you happen to be one of the dedicated redraft leaguers who pays attention year-round, first, congratulations; you're a fantasy player after my own heart, and your team is going to benefit from your hard work. Second, these articles should still have a lot of utility for you since their aim is to discuss a player's potential (primarily for 2012) and where they rank among their peers—things that are important no matter what kind of league you're in.

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Value Picks is such a mixed bag, especially before NL-only and AL-only players were separated out. Sometimes, a “Value Pick” is a player the authors think should be owned in every league, even shallow mixed leagues, because they're just that good. Other players are more appropriate for deeper mixed leagues or shallow single-league leagues. And, of course, some players are total bottom-of-the-barrel shots in the dark (here's looking at you, Trent Oeltjen!)
 

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Value Picks Team Tracker

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