SABR member Rob McQuown is a lifelong Cubs fan who was inspired by a Bill James Abstract to join STATS, Inc., where he was first published in the The Scouting Report, 1993. Since then, neither starting up multiple dot-coms or years in big corporate life could pull him convincingly away from his first love, baseball. Getting restarted in the industry in 2006 with Baseball Daily Digest, he was welcomed to the Baseball Prospectus team when BDD became a subsidiary of BP - as a programmer and writer, and has contributed extensive web content with both words and programs for numerous sites.
Breaking down Baseball Prospectus' top 101 prospects list.
Today, the Baseball Prospectus Prospect Staff released our Top 101 Prospects of 2016. Here is the Top 101 list displayed by position, by organization, by prospect age, and by their means of entering professional baseball. Enjoy!
Our objective at BP Stats is to provide sophisticated and useful metrics. Our mission is to do this while working transparently. Part of this involves reviewing what we have. As much—if not more—is about building new things.
Today we arrive at an update to FRAA—Fielding Runs Above Average—that represents both lanes of the process. FRAA is the metric we use at BP to measure the defensive contributions made by players in the field. In reviewing what we had, we found something we really needed to fix—outfield assists were not being counted in FRAA. We’re also adding some new metrics for catcher throwing skills (SRAA and TRAA) along with the framing and blocking metrics (CSAA and EPAA) we already were adding. This will allow FRAA to reflect player defense across a variety of important spectrums.
All of these improvements are happening even while we work on the next generation of FRAA using some of the techniques that have produced things like DRA and CSAA. This new version of FRAA will be the next “old” version if our offseason projects go well.
The Cleveland Indians are seeking a Developer of Baseball Systems to join the Baseball Software Development team in building baseball applications and transitioning existing systems to web and mobile applications.
Email sent via the "Contact Us" form on March 7 through March 9 failed to arrive intermittently. Please re-send.
Hi all! This message won't apply to most readers, but we did have some issues with the "Contact Us" email form (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/contact.php) this past weekend. If you sent email during that period - especially if you're expecting a Customer Service response - please kindly re-send. Thank you for your patience.
Welcome to PECOTA day, sponsored by DraftKings. Premium subscribers can now download the 2015 Weighted Means Spreadsheet under the Fantasy tab at the top of this page, or by clicking "manage your profile." Player pages have been updated with these projections, as have team depth charts (with projected standings) and the fantasy team tracker. Allow us to expand on a few details that might be helpful to you.
Why Does PECOTA Hate My Team?
Every year, fantasy owners and fans of teams ask this question, “Why Does PECOTA Hate My Team?” Last year, Deadspin compiled five dozen “(maybe) surprising player projections.” This season, there’s already been a Lineup Card with eight such surprising projections and Sam Miller did some Pebble Hunting to reveal some of the “winners” in the PECOTA pitching projections. This all raises the question of why Baseball Prospectus would keep publishing surprising projections. Shouldn’t these things be getting better with time, as the system is refined and there’s more data?
It would be disingenuous to suggest that projections never miss the mark. Sometimes by a lot. In fact, last season alone, 39 of the 362 position players for which Baseball Prospectus had projected 100 or more plate appearances actually amassed 100 or more plate appearances with very unexpected (to PECOTA) hitting performances. We looked at these players’ WARP-per-600 plate appearances, with FRAA removed (yes, FRAA is important, but it’s projected differently and is—sometimes—much more out of the player’s control than batting stats). Using this metric, 39 players missed by 3.0 or more WARP-per-600. It could almost have been called, “Craig’s List”, as Mr. Allen Craig was the no. 9 culprit with a WARP-per-600 difference of 4.6 … and as those who saw him play for Boston can attest, he was making a strong run to top this list. PECOTA had projected 1.8 WARP-sans-FRAA in 426 PA (March 22nd projections), and he ended up with -1.7 WARP-sans-FRAA in 505 PA. But Dan Uggla took the top honors, falling 5.7 WARP-per-600 short of projections. Steve Pearce was no. 3 and represented the top over-performer, bettering his WARP-per-600 projection by 5.4.
The above examples come from the most stable group of players—batters who were projected to play and who did play. Yet, some of the most surprising projections entering the 2014 season ended up being close to perfect. For example, people who saw A.J. Burnett pitch in 2013 thought PECOTA needed glasses, as it projected Burnett to have one of the 10 largest declines in 2014. It projected his ERA to be 4.24, which, considering the drop in leaguewide offense in 2014, would have been adjusted to 4.14. His FIP in 2014? 4.14. Projections for Bryce Harper and B.J. Upton, tabbed as “(maybe) surprising” in the Deadspin article, proved prescient.. Remember the reaction when Chris Davis had a .289 TAv projection (again March 22)? That number ended up being optimistic (he posted a .271), even though when he was coming off a .358 TAv season virtually everyone thought PECOTA hated the guy.
Seriously, though, PECOTA doesn’t hate any player or anyone’s team. There are no biases in it based on anything but historical track records. For completeness, it should be noted that results such as the examples herein are not just “shrugged off” – both accurate and inaccurate results are processed. So, while some projections are going to be surprising, it’s important to keep in mind that all-in-all, the results have been very accurate over the years (thank you, Nate Silver!).
Everyone who follows baseball at all has probably dabbled in the Baseball Prospectus Team Tracker—the most powerful tool of its kind available. For a reminder of some of the various things Team Tracker can do, both on the Team Tracker pages and elsewhere on the site, please refer back to Feature Focus articles on Team Tracker, Basics and Team Tracker, Advanced. The primary reason it’s being mentioned here is that 2015 PECOTA forecasts are now available. Shown is an actual portion of the Team Tracker page for the hitters on my Scoresheet team. (A team which was much better last season than it had any right to be. I had the second-best record among 24 teams entering the final week of the season and then, um, moving on… ) It can be seen that even for a 24-team league, hard times are likely ahead in 2015, based on PECOTA projections. The excerpt from my Team Tracker display is truncated on the right side as a reminder that there are many other stats which can be selected for the reports—allowing them to be tailored to each owner’s needs.
The tool for tracking the current top prospects, reviewing prospects from past seasons, and following your team tracker teams across all levels.
With the minor-league seasons winding down, many are turning their attention more and more to prospects—both those who are likely to get called up and those who are still a ways away. Prospect Tracker was announced early in 2012, and some new features were added last season to make it even more powerful.