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Rany Jazayerli 

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05-03

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Hot Starts, Part III
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-29

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Right Team for the Test?
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Rany Jazayerli

03-16

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The BP Wayback Machine: Improvement Ratio
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Rany Jazayerli

10-20

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Importance of Being 1-0
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Rany Jazayerli

10-14

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39

Doctoring The Numbers: Starting Them Young, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: Starting Them Young, Part One
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-27

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The BP Wayback Machine: Props for the Ozzeroo
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-15

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The BP Wayback Machine: Sweet Relief
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-10

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Doctor is...Gone
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-09

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7

Prospectus Q&A: Chris Hayes, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-06

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Prospectus Q&A: Chris Hayes, Part One
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-28

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5

Doctoring The Numbers: When the Rains Come
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Rany Jazayerli

04-05

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Doctoring The Numbers: Dodgers and Nationals
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Rany Jazayerli

03-25

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Doctoring The Numbers: Royals and Phillies
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-12

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Brewers and Giants
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Rany Jazayerli

02-27

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Cubs and the Red Sox
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Rany Jazayerli

02-20

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Doctoring The Numbers: Mariners, Braves, and Diamondbacks
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Rany Jazayerli

02-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: Mets, Rangers, and Orioles
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Rany Jazayerli

02-06

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Doctoring The Numbers: Angels, Indians, and Reds
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Rany Jazayerli

01-23

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Doctoring The Numbers: Marlins, White Sox, and Rays
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Rany Jazayerli

01-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: Diving into Data
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Rany Jazayerli

04-05

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Doctoring The Numbers: Charlie Haeger
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Rany Jazayerli

03-28

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Hope and Faith: How the Kansas City Royals Can Win the World Series
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Rany Jazayerli

03-23

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Doctoring The Numbers: Worst. Contract. Ever.
by
Rany Jazayerli

01-31

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Hidden Market Boost
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Rany Jazayerli

10-02

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Playoff Prospectus: Tigers versus Yankees
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Rany Jazayerli

08-08

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Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-07

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Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-05

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-02

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 11
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Rany Jazayerli

05-11

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Ten
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Rany Jazayerli

03-21

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2006--Setting the Stage
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Rany Jazayerli

03-15

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Nine
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Rany Jazayerli

03-07

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Eight
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-23

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You're Gonna Laugh...
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-20

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Top 50 Prospects
by
Rany Jazayerli and Dayn Perry

10-06

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Playoff Prospectus: Props for the Ozzeroo
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Seven
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-02

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Six
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Rany Jazayerli

06-09

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Five
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-02

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Four
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Rany Jazayerli

05-25

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Three
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-19

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-28

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2005--Setting the Stage
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-17

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Doctoring The Numbers: A Star No One Sees
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-22

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Top 50 Prospects
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-18

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Doctoring The Numbers: Chasing Wes Ferrell
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Rany Jazayerli

08-16

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Doctoring The Numbers: Chasing Ron Herbel
by
Rany Jazayerli

07-14

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Amazing Danny Kolb
by
Rany Jazayerli

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January 31, 2007 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Hidden Market Boost

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Rany Jazayerli

A small change to the CBA had a very large effect on this winter's free-agent market, and will have one on the upcoming draft as well.

Part of the allure of baseball is that, while players and teams come and go, the game itself changes at such a glacial pace that a 90-year-old fan today would have trouble coming up with any differences between the games he watched as a child from the game he sees today. Basketball before the invention of the shot clock was a vastly different game than the one played today. The shot clock wasn't even adopted by the NCAA until Michael Jordan had already left school. Football adds and subtracts penalties like an accountant furiously trying to make the books balance. The NHL made more rule changes after their lost season of two years ago than Major League Baseball has made since 1920.

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Rany sorts through the ins and outs of the classic confronatation between the Evil Empire and a Cinderella story.

It also set the Tigers on a course for Yankee Stadium, where they open the postseason against a New York squad that led the league in offense all season… and that was before Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui returned from injuries in September. It's Cinderella vs. the Evil Empire, and forget about the stroke of midnight-the sun is already coming up.

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Picking up where he left off yesterday, Rany continues his dissection of the 2006 Detroit Tigers.

A month after nabbing their franchise shortstop, the Tigers signed a franchise catcher, Ivan Rodriguez. On the surface, this made all kinds of sense; it's not often you get the opportunity to sign a surefire Hall of Famer who just turned 32. On the other hand, catchers age quickly, and Rodriguez caught more games (1564) before his 32nd birthday than anyone other than Johnny Bench, who was finished as a catcher by the time he turned 33 and was finished as a ballplayer when he was 35. While Rodriguez's 4-year, $40 million deal was eminently reasonable, it still represented a gamble in that it was likely the Tigers would never be competitive enough during the life of the contract to make the addition of Rodriguez meaningful.

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August 7, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City

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Rany Jazayerli

Dr. Jazayerli dissects the early makings of the game's best team--your 2006 Detroit Tigers.

Which is what makes the delirious success of the 2006 Detroit Tigers so fascinating. Winning teams are not put together overnight. Even teams that suddenly rise up from years of mediocrity to create a dynasty had a foundation of mediocrity to build upon. The New England Patriots were not a good team before they won three Super Bowls in four years, but they weren't a bad team either--they had gone 43-37 over the previous five seasons.

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June 5, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12

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Rany Jazayerli

Rany closes out his epic series, identifying the new inefficiency in the market before tomorrow's Rule 4 draft.

Well, there's no reason to think that change suddenly ground to a halt in 1999, and the data from a decade ago may hold little bearing on the decisions that will be made next Tuesday.

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With the Amateur Draft just around the corner, Rany returns to summarize his findings from his year-long draft study.

Now that we're done, it's safe to bring them out again. Starting from scratch, here is a summary of everything we've covered in the first 10 parts of this series. Consider this your pocket guide to the draft, especially if you happen to be on a conference call next Tuesday afternoon. Feel free to print out, laminate, and place in an attractive wood frame with gold trim.

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May 11, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Ten

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Rany Jazayerli

The Doctor returns with a look at the draft history of high school and college pitchers, to see if we can learn a few things about pitching value.

Pos Years 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd Overall Busts COL LHP 84-91 - 4.4% + 54.7% +133.4% + 21.5% COL LHP 92-99 - 7.3% + 61.1% + 15.0% + 8.0% COL LHP 84-99 - 5.8% + 57.8% + 82.4% + 15.2% Years Biggest Bargains Biggest Busts 84-91 Jim Abbott, Greg Swindell Drew Hall, Kyle Abbott 92-99 Barry Zito, Randy Wolf B.J. Wallace, Jeff Granger Note that the two most valuable draft picks from 1984 to 1991 are not Randy Johnson, who was third on the list. Johnson is a future Hall of Famer, but was not a full-time starting pitcher in the major leagues until four years after he was drafted, and didn't become RANDY JOHNSON until 1993. And of course, along the way he was traded by the team that drafted him, the Montreal Expos, essentially for four months of Mark Langston. The point bears repeating: the sooner a draft pick renders his value, the less likely the team that drafted him will have already given him up for pennies on the dollar.

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March 21, 2006 12:00 am

2006--Setting the Stage

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Rany Jazayerli

We continue our preparation for the season with Rany's list of three players to watch closely this year.

Well, if you don't want to strike out, don't swing for the fences. Still, by any reasonable measure that was a truly awful piece of prognostication.

Despite my embarassment, I'm back to try my hand at this soothsaying gig once more. But rather than issue foolhardy proclamations of imminent greatness from the three players listed below, I will merely argue that all three are, for various reasons, worth watching very carefully this season.

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Rany forges ahead in his draft study with a look at college shortstops, third basemen, and outfielders.

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March 7, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Eight

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Rany Jazayerli

The Good Doctor returns with Part Eight of his draft study, focusing on college hitters.

Last time, we looked at the relative merits of high school players by position, ending with this chart:

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February 23, 2006 12:00 am

You're Gonna Laugh...

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Rany Jazayerli

There was a minor error in the Top 50 Prospects list released here on Monday. Rany explains.

We screwed up.

But not in the way you might think.

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February 20, 2006 12:00 am

Top 50 Prospects

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Rany Jazayerli and Dayn Perry

Our annual prospect list finds a pair of highly-regarded outfielders leading the pack.

1. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay
2. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida
3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington
4. Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota
5. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles of Anaheim

6. Brandon Wood, SS, Los Angeles of Anaheim
7. Andy Marte, 3B, Cleveland
8. Chris Young, OF, Arizona
9. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
10. Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City







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