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Rany Jazayerli 

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01-06

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: The Case for Tim Raines
by
Rany Jazayerli

11-03

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: Dayton Moore's First Week
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-06

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Rebuilding the Best in Motor City, Part One
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-06

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The BP Wayback Machine: Rebuilding the Best in Motor City, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-24

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Dayton Moore's First Week
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-03

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Hot Starts, Part III
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-29

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Right Team for the Test?
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-16

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The BP Wayback Machine: Improvement Ratio
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-20

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Importance of Being 1-0
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-14

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39

Doctoring The Numbers: Starting Them Young, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-13

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57

Doctoring The Numbers: Starting Them Young, Part One
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-27

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Props for the Ozzeroo
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-15

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The BP Wayback Machine: Sweet Relief
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-10

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: The Doctor is...Gone
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-09

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7

Prospectus Q&A: Chris Hayes, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-06

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5

Prospectus Q&A: Chris Hayes, Part One
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-28

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5

Doctoring The Numbers: When the Rains Come
by
Rany Jazayerli

04-05

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Doctoring The Numbers: Dodgers and Nationals
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-25

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Doctoring The Numbers: Royals and Phillies
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-12

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Brewers and Giants
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-27

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Cubs and the Red Sox
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-20

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Doctoring The Numbers: Mariners, Braves, and Diamondbacks
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: Mets, Rangers, and Orioles
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-06

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Doctoring The Numbers: Angels, Indians, and Reds
by
Rany Jazayerli

01-23

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Doctoring The Numbers: Marlins, White Sox, and Rays
by
Rany Jazayerli

01-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: Diving into Data
by
Rany Jazayerli

04-05

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Doctoring The Numbers: Charlie Haeger
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-28

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Hope and Faith: How the Kansas City Royals Can Win the World Series
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-23

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Doctoring The Numbers: Worst. Contract. Ever.
by
Rany Jazayerli

01-31

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Hidden Market Boost
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-02

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Playoff Prospectus: Tigers versus Yankees
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-08

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Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-07

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Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-05

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-02

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 11
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-11

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Ten
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-21

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2006--Setting the Stage
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-15

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Nine
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-07

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Eight
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-23

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You're Gonna Laugh...
by
Rany Jazayerli

02-20

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1

Top 50 Prospects
by
Rany Jazayerli and Dayn Perry

10-06

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Playoff Prospectus: Props for the Ozzeroo
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Seven
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-02

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Six
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-09

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Five
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-02

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Four
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-25

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Three
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-19

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Two
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-13

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Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft
by
Rany Jazayerli

03-28

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2005--Setting the Stage
by
Rany Jazayerli

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Middle infield power combinations, the first true ROOGY, and moving on Upton.

Continuing our statistical tour around the major leagues

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January 13, 2008 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: Diving into Data

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Rany Jazayerli

The good doctor returns with some interesting notes on Khalil Greene, Troy Percival and Mike Maroth.

Between now and Opening Day, I hope to mine the data of baseball statistics from last year to bring you at least one interesting nugget from each team. Some of this information will be genuinely useful to know, and some of it will be pure meaningless fun, so don't take it too seriously. I'm not trying to recreate the Elias Baseball Analyst here; I don't worship at the altar of the small sample size. But I hope these findings whet your appetite for the statistical smrgsbord that starts once again on March 25th. (Yes, March 25th. We must have been very good this year.)

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Rany comes clean about an obsession with the knuckler, and his active interest in the best prospect to throw it in years.

It's no secret that I'm a fan of the knuckleball and the men who throw it. Among the many clues I have left in my wake, the most obvious is the time I ignored the objections of a fewokay, all of my colleagues, and attached Charlie Zink to the bottom of our Top 50 Prospects list three years ago. Fortunately, Zink has gone on to great and glorious success since then, completely vindicating my faith in him.

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It's October 27th, 2007, and Rany's having the time of his life.

Will talks with Rany about the Royals' chances on Baseball Prospectus Radio. Click to download the mp3.

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March 23, 2007 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: Worst. Contract. Ever.

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Rany Jazayerli

Rany looks past the Braves' last bargain deal with Andruw Jones to an even worse contract for a player.

And few lists are more fun to break out than the list of the worst free-agent contracts of all time. We love any excuse to mock owners for their reckless decisions; plus, as fans, we have a morbid sense of pride in having been forced to taste the bitter fruit of those moves. Darren Dreifort,

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January 31, 2007 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Hidden Market Boost

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Rany Jazayerli

A small change to the CBA had a very large effect on this winter's free-agent market, and will have one on the upcoming draft as well.

Part of the allure of baseball is that, while players and teams come and go, the game itself changes at such a glacial pace that a 90-year-old fan today would have trouble coming up with any differences between the games he watched as a child from the game he sees today. Basketball before the invention of the shot clock was a vastly different game than the one played today. The shot clock wasn't even adopted by the NCAA until Michael Jordan had already left school. Football adds and subtracts penalties like an accountant furiously trying to make the books balance. The NHL made more rule changes after their lost season of two years ago than Major League Baseball has made since 1920.

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Rany sorts through the ins and outs of the classic confronatation between the Evil Empire and a Cinderella story.

It also set the Tigers on a course for Yankee Stadium, where they open the postseason against a New York squad that led the league in offense all season and that was before Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui returned from injuries in September. It's Cinderella vs. the Evil Empire, and forget about the stroke of midnight-the sun is already coming up.

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Picking up where he left off yesterday, Rany continues his dissection of the 2006 Detroit Tigers.

A month after nabbing their franchise shortstop, the Tigers signed a franchise catcher, Ivan Rodriguez. On the surface, this made all kinds of sense; it's not often you get the opportunity to sign a surefire Hall of Famer who just turned 32. On the other hand, catchers age quickly, and Rodriguez caught more games (1564) before his 32nd birthday than anyone other than Johnny Bench, who was finished as a catcher by the time he turned 33 and was finished as a ballplayer when he was 35. While Rodriguez's 4-year, $40 million deal was eminently reasonable, it still represented a gamble in that it was likely the Tigers would never be competitive enough during the life of the contract to make the addition of Rodriguez meaningful.

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August 7, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City

0

Rany Jazayerli

Dr. Jazayerli dissects the early makings of the game's best team--your 2006 Detroit Tigers.

Which is what makes the delirious success of the 2006 Detroit Tigers so fascinating. Winning teams are not put together overnight. Even teams that suddenly rise up from years of mediocrity to create a dynasty had a foundation of mediocrity to build upon. The New England Patriots were not a good team before they won three Super Bowls in four years, but they weren't a bad team either--they had gone 43-37 over the previous five seasons.

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June 5, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12

0

Rany Jazayerli

Rany closes out his epic series, identifying the new inefficiency in the market before tomorrow's Rule 4 draft.

Well, there's no reason to think that change suddenly ground to a halt in 1999, and the data from a decade ago may hold little bearing on the decisions that will be made next Tuesday.

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With the Amateur Draft just around the corner, Rany returns to summarize his findings from his year-long draft study.

Now that we're done, it's safe to bring them out again. Starting from scratch, here is a summary of everything we've covered in the first 10 parts of this series. Consider this your pocket guide to the draft, especially if you happen to be on a conference call next Tuesday afternoon. Feel free to print out, laminate, and place in an attractive wood frame with gold trim.

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May 11, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Ten

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Rany Jazayerli

The Doctor returns with a look at the draft history of high school and college pitchers, to see if we can learn a few things about pitching value.

Pos Years 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd Overall Busts COL LHP 84-91 - 4.4% + 54.7% +133.4% + 21.5% COL LHP 92-99 - 7.3% + 61.1% + 15.0% + 8.0% COL LHP 84-99 - 5.8% + 57.8% + 82.4% + 15.2% Years Biggest Bargains Biggest Busts 84-91 Jim Abbott, Greg Swindell Drew Hall, Kyle Abbott 92-99 Barry Zito, Randy Wolf B.J. Wallace, Jeff Granger Note that the two most valuable draft picks from 1984 to 1991 are not Randy Johnson, who was third on the list. Johnson is a future Hall of Famer, but was not a full-time starting pitcher in the major leagues until four years after he was drafted, and didn't become RANDY JOHNSON until 1993. And of course, along the way he was traded by the team that drafted him, the Montreal Expos, essentially for four months of Mark Langston. The point bears repeating: the sooner a draft pick renders his value, the less likely the team that drafted him will have already given him up for pennies on the dollar.

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