Search Articles by Patrick Dubuque
All Blogs (including podcasts) Select a blog All Podcasts Analyze This B-Warned Baseball Prospectus Book News Baseball Prospectus Press Release Between The Numbers BP Announcements BP Beta Blog BP Daily Podcast BP Fantasy Podcast BP Job Postings BP on SiriusXM BP Podcast BP Unfiltered Collateral Damage DFA Podcast Fantasy Beat Fantasy Hour Flags Fly Forever Podcast Fringe Average Podcast From the Editor's Desk Future Shock Blog Inside The Park Blog Joe's Blog Limited Range Podcast Minor Issues Minor League Update No Pepper One-Hoppers Raw Projection Tater Trot Tracker The BP First Take The Guidance Counselor The Wayback Blog TINO (There Is No Offseason) TINSTAAPP Transaction Analysis Blog Wezen-Ball What You Missed Winter Meetings You Can Blog It Up Active Columns Select a column 2015 Prospects 2016 Prospects 2017 Prospects 5 O'Clock Power 6-4-3 Advance Scouting Series Ahead in the Count All-Star Futures Game All-Star Game All-Star Game Preview All-Star Home Run Derby An Agent's Take Answer Man Arbitration Showdown Arizona Fall League Recap Banished To The Pen Banjo Hitter Baseball ProGUESTus Baseball Prospectus Basics Baseball Prospectus News Baseball Therapy Behind the Curtain Best of BP 2015 Best of BP 2016 Bizball BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft Breaking Balls Bullpen Report Campus Notes Caught Looking Changing Speeds Cheese in the Kitchen Circle Change Closer Report Cold Takes Collateral Damage Collateral Damage Daily Contractual Matters Covert OPS Daily League Strategy Daily Roundup Daisy Cutter Deep Impact Deep League Report Deep, But Playable Dissecting the Draft Divide and Conquer, AL Central Divide and Conquer, AL East Divide and Conquer, NL Central Divide and Conquer, NL East Divide and Conquer, NL West Doctoring The Numbers Don't Believe the Hype Draft Ten Pack Ducks on the Pond Dynasty Dynamics Dynasty League Positional Rankings Dynasty League Positional Rankings Continued Early ADP Analysis Every Team's Moneyball Everyone's Perfect Everything You Could Have Learned This Week Expanded Horizons Expert FAAB Review Expert League Auction Recap Expert League Draft Recap Eyewitness Accounts Fantasy Auction Values Fantasy Bargains and Busts Fantasy Beat Fantasy Categorical Breakdowns Fantasy Draft Rankings Fantasy Focus Fantasy Fool's Gold Fantasy Freestyle Fantasy Infographic Fantasy Mailbag Fantasy Players to Avoid Fantasy Players to Target Fantasy Rounders Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner Fantasy Team Preview Fantasy Three-Year Projections Fantasy Tiered Rankings Feature Focus Field Generals Fifth Column Five to Watch Flu-Like Symptoms Free Agent Watch From The Mailbag Future Shock Game Reaction Get to Know Glass Cuts Diamond Going Yard Graphical Fantasy Rankings Grumblings from a Surly Sabermetrician Guarding The Lines Head Games Heartburn Hardball Hot Stove Scouting Report In A Pickle In-Season Fantasy Valuations Inside The Park Interleague Report Internet Baseball Awards Let It Eat Lies, Damned Lies Life at the Margins Liner Notes Long Relief Looking Back on Tomorrow Manufactured Runs Memorial Day Remembrance Mid-season Prescriptions Minor Issues Minor League Update MLBDepthCharts Monday Morning Ten Pack Moonshot My Model Portfolio New Arms Ninety Percent Mental Notes About Baseball Notes from the Field On A Jailbreak On the Beat One Move Outta Left Field Overthinking It Painting the Black Pebble Hunting Perfect Game Presents Pitcher Profile PITCHf/ox PITCHf/x Mailbag PITCHf/x Profile Pitching Backward Player Profile Players Prefer Presentation Playing Time Battles Playoff Odds Update Playoff Prospectus Position Battles Potential Impact Call-Ups Pre-Season Positional Rankings Preseason Value Picks Prospect Debate Prospect House Prospect Profile Prospect Push Prospects Will Break Your Heart Prospectus Feature Prospectus Game of the Week Prospectus Hit and Run Prospectus Perspective Prospectus Playoff Quickie Prospectus Preview Prospectus Profile Prospectus Q&A Prospectus Review Prospectus Roundtable Prospectus Today Punk Hits Purpose Pitches Raising Aces Rany On The Royals Reintroducing PECOTA Release Points Research Mailbag Resident Fantasy Genius Retro Transaction Analysis Retrospective Player Valuation Reworking WARP Roto Restart Rubbing Mud Rumor Roundup Scouting the Draft Seidnotes Short Relief Skewed Left Sobsequy Soft Toss Some Projection Left Spinning Yarn Spitballing Sporer Report State of the Position Swing Change Tale of the Tape Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition TDGX Transactions Team Chemistry Team Health Reports Team Injury Projection The -Only League Landscape The Adjuster The Asian Equation The BP Broadside The BP Trading Post The BP Wayback Machine The Buyer's Guide The Call-Up The Column to Be Named Later The Daily Prospectus The Darkhorses The Fantasy Verdict The Great Debaters The Jong Show The Keeper Reaper The Landscape The Lineup Card The Other 15 Percent The Over/Underachievers The Payoff Pitch The Platoon Advantage The Process The Prospectus Hit List The Quinton The Stash List The Stats Go Marching In The Things We Believe The View From Behind The Backstop The View from the Loge Level The Week in Quotes They Hold No Quarter This is Not Your Father's Baseball Road Trip Tools of Ignorance Top 10 Week Top Tools Transaction Analysis TTO Scoresheet Podcast Two-Strike Approach Under The Knife Updating the Tiers UTK Special Value Picks Weekly Planner Weekly Wrap Welcome to Splitsville West Coast By Us Western Front Wezen-Ball Extra What Scouts Are Saying What You Need to Know Working the Count You Could Look It Up Youth Movement Authors Select an author Peter Abraham Jim Albert Martin Alonso Colin Anderle Mark Anderson R.J. Anderson Cee Angi Bradley Ankrom Jorge Arangure Jr. Robert Arthur Nick Ashbourne Julien Assouline Nick Bacarella Emma Baccellieri Bill Baer Tim Baffoe Jim Baker Mike Banghart Javier Barragan Pete Barrett Mark Barry Michael Bates Michael Baumann Stephani Bee Jesse Behr Hudson Belinsky Demetrius Bell Alex Belth Tommy Bennett Isaac Bennett Jonah Birenbaum Justin Birnbaum Nathan Bishop George Bissell Mo Bjonski Tucker Blair Michael Bradburn Bennett Brauer Riley Breckenridge J.P. Breen Tim Britton Shawn Brody Dan Brooks Maury Brown Craig Brown David Brown Lance Brozdowski Evan Brunell Jon Bruschke William Burke Matthew Callan Nick Canelas Marc Carig Russell A. Carleton Will Carroll Ben Carsley Derek Carty Alex Chamberlain Clint Chisam John Choiniere Dave Church Jason Churchill Michael Clair Ben Cohen Bryan Cole Jason Cole Jason Collette Tim Collins Matt Collins Jack Conness John Coppolella Leigh Coridan Brett Cowett Mary Craig Christopher Crawford Zach Crizer Keith Cromer Mike Curto Jeff Dahn Clay Davenport Ryan Davis Evan Davis Corey Dawkins Zach Day Brandon Decker Scott Delp Rocco DeMaro Neil deMause Thomas Desmidt Nathan Desutter Austin Diamond Ben Diamond Nick Dika Ryan Divish Bradford Doolittle Evan Drellich Henry Druschel Patrick Dubuque Kenny Ducey Brian Duricy Patrick Ebert Cam Ellis Matt Ellis John Erhardt John Eshleman Jeff Euston Dan Evans Sarah Evans Nick J. Faleris BP Fantasy Staff Mike Fast James Fegan Kate Feldman Andrew Felper Hunter Felt Chad Finn Tim Finnegan Chaz Fiorino Frank Firke James Fisher Clark Fosler Adam Foster Dan Fox Ian Frazer Eugene Freedman Jeffrey A. Friedman Ken Funck Iain Fyffe Brent S. Gambill Perfect Game Jake Garcia Cat Garcia Eric Garcia McKinley Jim Gardner Eriq Gardner Andrew Gargano Brendan Gawlowski Maiya Gessling Mike Gianella Steve Givarz Craig Glaser Rebecca Glass Conor Glassey Aaron Gleeman Clark Goble Todd Gold Mitch Goldich Steven Goldman Craig Goldstein Kevin Goldstein Greg Goldstein Jordan Gorosh Stacey Gotsulias Nathan Graham Noah Grand Larry Granillo Garrett Greeby Morris Greenberg Jeremy Greenhouse Bryan Grosnick Brian Gunn Matt Gwin Parker Hageman Will Haines Jonathan Hale Joe Hamrahi Brandon Heipp Octavio Hernandez Bob Hertzel Josh Herzenberg Tom Hitchner Shawn Hoffman Randy Holt Andrew Hopen Tony Horwitz Scooter Hotz Kit House Joshua Howsam Gary Huckabay Steven Jacobson Derek Jacques Jay Jaffe J.J. Jansons Rany Jazayerli Max Jensen Bryan Joiner Grant Jones Michael Jong Jonathan Judge Christina Kahrl Sky Kalkman Alex Kantecki Gabe Kapler Wilson Karaman Len Kasper King Kaufman Adam Kaufman Jeff Kensrud Jonah Keri Kevin Kerrane Daniel Kim Chris King Tim Kniker Eric Knott Andrew Koo Matthew Kory Jesse Krailler Kourage Kundahl Joshua Kusnick Pat Lackey Chris Lamberti Eric Lang Will Larson David Laurila Keith Law David Lee Ian Lefkowitz David Lesky Zachary Levine Ryan Lind Ben Lindbergh M.J. Lloyd Jeff Long Lee Lowenfish Jen Mac Ramos Graham MacAree Daniel Mack Rich MacLeod Brian MacPherson Rob Mains Erik Malinowski Dan Malkiel Tim Malone Tim Malone Elliot Mann Samuel Mann Max Marchi Annie Maroon Jason Martinez Leo Martinic Kyle Matte Gregory J. Matthews Andy McCullough Rachael McDaniel Kiley McDaniel Adam McInturff Rob McQuown Andrew Mearns Howard Megdal Chris Mellen Dan Mennella Eric Mercer Dave Metz Sam Miller Ian Miller Jake Mintz Guy Molyneux Jack Moore Jeff Moore Chad Moriyama Ryan Morrison Kate Morrison Zach Mortimer Chris Mosch Zack Moser Ben Murphy David Murphy Alan M. Nathan C.J. Nitkowski Marc Normandin Josh Norris Sara Novic Sean O'Rourke Josh Paley Dustin Palmateer Pete Palmer Doug Pappas Jason Paré Ryan Parker Bill Parker Jason Parks John Paschal Mike Passador Brice Paterik Jeffrey Paternostro Andrew Patrick Harry Pavlidis Jeff Pease Dave Pease Andrew Pentis John Perrotto Mike Petriello Evan Petty Nick Piecoro Frankie Piliere David Pinto Lewie Pollis Jeff Polman Carlos Portocarrero Kate Preusser Satchel Price Mark Primiano BP Prospect Staff Baseball Prospectus Matthew Provenzano Matt Pullman Ethan Purser Alex Putterman Jeff Quinton Jessica Quiroli Tammy Rainey David Raposa Daniel Rathman David Rawnsley Dave Raymond Stephen Reichert Anthony Rescan Kristy Robinson Matthew Rocco Chris Rodriguez Jon Roegele Kendall Rogers David Roher Ryan Romano Eric Roseberry C. Trent Rosecrans David Roth Erich Rothmann Andrew Rothstein Meg Rowley Dan Rozenson Seth Rubin Mauricio Rubio Jeff Sackmann Hunter Samuels Drew Samuelson Bret Sayre Nick Schaefer Larry Schechter JH Schroeder Ken Schultz Ryan Schultz Tom Scocca Clint Scoles BP Scoresheet Experts Steffan Segui Jarrett Seidler Eric Seidman Timo Seppa Ron Shah Sahadev Sharma Joe Sheehan Josh Shepardson Jon Shepherd Tom Shieber Nick Shlain Jordan Shusterman Nate Silver Scott Simon Allan Simpson Paul Singman Will Siskel Alex Skillin Al Skorupa Hayley Slye Jenn Smith Lloyd Smith Bryan Smith Sean Smith James Smyth Adam Sobsey Mike Sonne Ethan Spalding Emma Span Alex Speier Paul Sporer Chris St. John BP Staff Tim Steggall Nicolas Stellini Dan Strafford Dan Strafford Michael Street Brandon Stroud Trevor Strunk Dave Studeman Matt Sussman Daron Sutton Matt Swartz Cecilia M. Tan BP Stats Team Chris Teeter David Temple Doug Thorburn Dash Treyhorn Matthew Trueblood Gideon Turk Dan Turkenkopf Ashley Varela Seth Victor Rob Vollman Mike Vorkunov Elie Waitzer Stuart Wallace Jim Walsh Rob Warmowski Brandon Warne Rian Watt Matt Welch Greg Wellemeyer Holly Wendt Michael Wenz Nick Wheatley-Schaller Kevin Whitaker Collin Whitchurch Rob Willer Charlie Wilmoth Ezra Wise Greg Wisniewski CJ Wittmann Brad Wochomurka Jason Wojciechowski Will Woods Noah Woodward Kathy Woolner Keith Woolner Josh Worn Miles Wray Colin Wyers Jared Wyllys Jared Wyllys Austin Yamada Kazuto Yamazaki Clarissa Young Geoff Young Colin Young Jonathan Zeller Nicholas Zettel Derek Zumsteg Article Types Select an article type Free Articles Fantasy Articles Premium Articles All BP Articles Archives
0 Short Relief: Small Blessings of Baseball by Nathan Bishop, Patrick Dubuque and David Temple
2 Cold Takes: The Need For (More Than) Speed by Patrick Dubuque
5 Cold Takes: Shadows Stretching Across the Field by Patrick Dubuque
1 Short Relief: A Box Full of Things to Fill Holes and Other Stories by David Temple and Patrick Dubuque
2 Short Relief: The Logical Continuation of Jesus Montero, and Fallacies Among Follicles by Kate Preusser and Patrick Dubuque
2 Short Relief: The Zone Not Taken and Other Works by Matt Sussman, Mary Craig and Patrick Dubuque
5 Long Relief: The Baseball Card Pose Power Rankings by Patrick Dubuque
2 Short Relief: Scouting Reports from the Near Future, and Newly Released Sufjan Stevens Album Details by Patrick Dubuque and Nathan Bishop
4 Cold Takes: The Average of Everything (Else) by Patrick Dubuque
1 Short Relief: Detrimental Diamondbacks Games, and an Apology by Matt Sussman and Patrick Dubuque
0 Short Relief: Another Mascot Firing, and the Oppposite of Schadenfreude by Patrick Dubuque and Zack Moser
5 Cold Takes: The Average of Everything by Patrick Dubuque
3 Short Relief: On Fighting, Friendship, and Negotiation by Patrick Dubuque, Jason Wojciechowski and Nathan Bishop
5 Short Relief: Votto's Insult Comedy, Weaver's Embarrassment Comedy, and Nancy's Achievement by Jason Wojciechowski, Patrick Dubuque and Nathan Bishop
1 Short Relief: Witnessing Assault, Keeping a Journal, and Mixing Baseball and Board Games by Meg Rowley, Holly Wendt and Patrick Dubuque
6 Short Relief: How to Keep Score and Analyze Outfielders by Patrick Dubuque and Meg Rowley
1 Cold Takes: Mike Zunino Has Them Right Where He Wants Them by Patrick Dubuque
0 Short Relief: On Phillies Closers and Yankees Authors by Holly Wendt, Trevor Strunk and Patrick Dubuque
2 Short Relief: How to Grip a Pitch, Ruin a Career, or Compare Someone to Tony Gwynn by Patrick Dubuque, Mary Craig and Matt Sussman
3 Short Relief: First Pitches and Final Farewells by Nathan Bishop, Emma Baccellieri and Patrick Dubuque
5 Cold Takes: The Best of All Possible Jeffrey Leonards by Patrick Dubuque
2 Long Relief: Around the Glacier by Patrick Dubuque
6 Cold Takes: Reconciling the Outliers by Patrick Dubuque
0 Short Relief: Short Cuts by Zack Moser, David Temple and Patrick Dubuque
8 Cold Takes: The Natural Conclusion of Baseball Statistics by Patrick Dubuque
1 Short Relief: Two Science Fiction Short Stories by Patrick Dubuque and Nathan Bishop
0 Short Relief: Of Sad Lexicons and Sad Hardware by Holly Wendt and Patrick Dubuque
0 Short Relief: The End of Cy Young and the Statcast TV Guide by Patrick Dubuque and Zack Moser
0 Cold Takes: How to Attack Baseball's Weakest Hitters by Patrick Dubuque
0 Transaction Analysis: Franklin and Stash by Bryan Grosnick and Patrick Dubuque
8 Cold Takes: Do You Know This Man? by Patrick Dubuque
0 Short Relief: High Noon, Phantom Pain, and Failure Versus Success by Holly Wendt, Patrick Dubuque and Trevor Strunk
3 Short Relief: Love of Elevation, The Sultan of Statcast, and An 8-Bit Scouting Report by Matt Sussman, Mary Craig and Patrick Dubuque
0 Cold Takes: Everything is Unlikely by Patrick Dubuque
8 Short Relief: Machado's Sublimity, A Past-Life Scorecard, And A Dark Tale by Zack Moser, Martin Alonso and Patrick Dubuque
1 Short Relief: Spring Dismissals, Veteran Expletives, and JaCobies Jones by James Fegan, Nathan Bishop and Patrick Dubuque
1 Prospectus Feature: Christian Bethancourt and Fun by Meg Rowley and Patrick Dubuque
3 Short Relief: Talking (And Not Talking) Baseball by Holly Wendt and Patrick Dubuque
7 Cold Takes: Always Tell Me the Odds by Patrick Dubuque
2 Short Relief: L'Essene du Danks / The Last Show by Jason Wojciechowski and Patrick Dubuque
5 Short Relief: Fielding as Metaphor, Teams as Monsters, and Sumo Suits as Disguises by Patrick Dubuque, Bryan Grosnick and Emma Baccellieri
0 Looking Back on Tomorrow: Oakland Athletics by Patrick Dubuque
4 Short Relief: Tales of Cubs Fans, Extroverts, and 1987 Topps by Nathan Bishop, Jason Wojciechowski and Patrick Dubuque
2 Short Relief: Fallen Heroes, Anonymous Foot Soldiers, and Dale Sveum by Holly Wendt, Mo Bjonski and Patrick Dubuque
11 Cold Takes: How Computers Killed a Sport by Patrick Dubuque
3 Short Relief: Opening One's Heart, Calculating Existence Odds, and a Correction by Emma Baccellieri, Jason Wojciechowski and Patrick Dubuque
1 Short Relief: Perfect Numbers, Lying Numbers, and Fraudulent Pitchers by Patrick Dubuque, Trevor Strunk and Holly Wendt
1 Transaction Analysis: Bourn on a Hill by Matthew Trueblood and Patrick Dubuque
7 Cold Takes: How to Kill the Strikeout by Patrick Dubuque
6 Cold Takes: A Single Ray of Hope by Patrick Dubuque
Nathan on waiting for spring, Patrick on an unexpected bonus of replay, and David on going to SABR. Brian McCann lives his life 23.4 feet per second at a time.
Yesterday, Statcast released the comprehensive leaderboards for its newest metric: Sprint Speed, measured in terms of “feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window.”
These were derived by measuring when runners were likely to be heading at top speed, taking multiple bases (other than from second on an extra-base hit). The full list is
available here for your perusal: there are a few surprises, like the proximity of to John Jaso , or the sad state of Jonathan Villar . But for the most part, it’s an intuitive ordering of names, what you’d want when measuring baseball players. Troy Tulowitzki Read the full article...
Baseball, suicide, and defending life.
David writes a story of the junk wax era of a man, and Patrick dissects a typical Short Relief article so you can see how the sausage is made.
Kate reviews the performance of Jesus Montero, extra-inning position-player pitcher; Patrick rants about hair.
Matt applies tunneling stats to Robert Frost; Mary gives Scooter Gennett an origin story; and Patrick defends whimsy.
A comprehensive ranking of every baseball card pose, from Jeff Reardon to Wally Joyner.
Patrick supplies a scouting profile for a player your team will draft today, and Nathan leaks the track listing for an indie-rock album about the Pittsburgh Pirates. Average means different things for different numbers, and the scales are forever sliding.
Last week I
began a project: to take every major pitching statistic and look at its distribution along various percentiles, mostly to provide a feel for what a "good" or a "bad" number looks like for many of our important and unintuitive statistics. This isn’t so much a work of analysis as it is a dip in a statistical hot tub, just soaking in the numbers and getting comfortable in them.
Read the full article...
Matt investigates the history of Diamondback games taking their toll on people, while Patrick issues an apology.
Patrick reports on another mascot issue, while Zack finds a small rooting interest between author and subject. What does average mean for each number? And how long will it take to get used to our new environment?
There’s a reason why batting average is often still, after 150 years, the first number you see attached to a hitter’s name. It’s not because it’s a good stat for measuring a player’s offensive performance: it’s hardly terrible, but there are a dozen better ones. It’s because fans have internalized its value: they can glance at it and quickly establish whether it’s good or not. .310? Pretty great hitter. .220? Not so much. That’s all it takes: no counting, no comparing, just instant verification.
Read the full article...