CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Nate Silver 

Search Articles by Nate Silver

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

01-31

comment icon

8

The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Teams Look Best Over the Next Half-Decade?
by
Nate Silver

09-17

comment icon

1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Tiger Plan
by
Nate Silver

02-08

comment icon

3

The BP Wayback Machine: 2003 PECOTA Preview: The American League
by
Nate Silver

01-18

comment icon

1

The BP Wayback Machine: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

11-09

comment icon

7

The BP Wayback Machine: Fresh Blood
by
Nate Silver

08-24

comment icon

1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

08-17

comment icon

1

The BP Wayback Machine: Setting the Stage for 2005: Steroids
by
Nate Silver

07-20

comment icon

0

The BP Wayback Machine: The Injury Nexus
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

05-04

comment icon

0

The BP Wayback Machine: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

03-30

comment icon

3

The BP Wayback Machine: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

02-10

comment icon

3

The BP Wayback Machine: Neighborly Baseball
by
Nate Silver

12-15

comment icon

6

The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

08-25

comment icon

12

The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

05-26

comment icon

5

The BP Wayback Machine: How Do You Rate Relief?
by
Nate Silver

04-05

comment icon

1

The BP Wayback Machine: Snowbound Schedule
by
Nate Silver

03-01

comment icon

8

The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

05-07

comment icon

35

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

03-26

comment icon

22

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests
by
Nate Silver

03-24

comment icon

59

State of the Prospectus
by
Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein

02-23

comment icon

43

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds
by
Nate Silver

01-12

comment icon

7

Prospectus Q&A: Rickey Henderson
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

11-17

comment icon

16

Hot Stove Preview
by
Nate Silver

10-02

comment icon

7

Playoff Prospectus: White Sox versus Rays
by
Nate Silver

08-22

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)
by
Nate Silver

08-21

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
by
Nate Silver

08-14

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers
by
Nate Silver

08-07

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Bonds Bingo
by
Nate Silver

07-24

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark
by
Nate Silver

07-11

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag
by
Nate Silver

07-02

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Flipping the Switch
by
Nate Silver

06-29

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

06-19

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t
by
Nate Silver

06-11

comment icon

1

Lies, Damned Lies: Chipper's Chase of .400
by
Nate Silver

06-05

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

05-29

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-22

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-15

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

05-08

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-02

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen
by
Nate Silver

04-25

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Age of Suspicion
by
Nate Silver

04-18

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays
by
Nate Silver

04-04

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under
by
Nate Silver

04-03

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
by
Nate Silver

03-28

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

03-20

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

02-29

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
by
Nate Silver

02-14

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Smoking Gun?
by
Nate Silver

10-31

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West
by
Nate Silver

10-30

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

10-24

comment icon

0

Playoff Prospectus: Rockies versus Red Sox
by
Nate Silver

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 15, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?

0

Nate Silver

Ease up there, Hemingway, we're talking about pitchers, and whether we're missing a few from the last couple of decades.

When we see the level of offense go up or down in baseball-and it has been down dramatically this season-we tend to attribute it to everything other than the players themselves. In any given downturn, it's the bats, or the baseballs, or the ballparks, or the drugs that the players are injecting themselves with. Or all of those things. But what if it isn't all about context? What if, when offense is up, it literally does mean that there aren't very many good pitchers?

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 8, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects

0

Nate Silver

PECOTA loves quite a few young third basemen, but how many of them will remain at the hot corner?

Player (Age) Upside Evan Longoria, Rays (22) 339.1 Andy LaRoche, Dodgers (24) 178.0

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 2, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen

0

Nate Silver

The list of top keystone prospects includes a mix of young players to watch and older players who fell out of favor.

When we last ran an installment of the PECOTA Takes on Prospects series, gas prices were nearing $4.00 a gallon, the Democratic primary looked like it would never end, and the stock market was more jittery than Will Carroll on his fourteenth cup of coffee. All right, so perhaps not all that much has changed. But let's get back on track by tackling second basemen.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Has the guessing game over who used what when gone too far?

Every time I do a chat aroud this time of year, when small sample sizes encourage people to leap to conclusions, I get a couple of questions like these (names have been changed to protect those who have lost their innocence):

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

April 18, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays

0

Nate Silver

After a quick bit of aging, the Astros' shortstop might not lose much to Father Time now, but the clock's ticking.

My first thought after I learned that Miguel Tejada was two years older than his listed birth date was that I wasn't really all that surprised by the news. My second thought was that he just threw away his shot at the Hall of Fame. One of these two thoughts is valid; the other is a little out of place. Let's take care of the obvious part first. Below is a comparison of Miguel Tejada's original PECOTA forecast with a new one that we've generated by aging him exactly two years and leaving everything else alone:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

April 4, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under

0

Nate Silver

Which players might struggle to match their PECOTA projections this year?

It's actually much more difficult to come up with an 'anti-' list than a 'pro-' list. Not only do I really feel like I have to bet against my own system, but it seems like I'm picking on individual players and teams. If it makes you feel any better, two of the eleven names you see below play prominent roles on one or another of my fantasy teams.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

April 3, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings

0

Nate Silver

Who might most outperform their PECOTAs? Plus projected standings and the top three storylines of the new season.

Spring has a way of creeping up on you in the Midwest, and it crept up on me this year without my ever getting an article out on the PECOTA projected standings. So, rather than try and pretend that that I didn't see what happened over the first couple days of the season-I will point out that my three favorite teams (the Tigers, White Sox, and Cubs) are a collective 0-6-I'm instead going to focus things at the player level, and give you a list of 11 guys that I expect to outperform their PECOTA forecasts this year. Tomorrow, we'll do the equally fun part of this list: those guys that I expect to underachieve PECOTA.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

March 28, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects

0

Nate Silver

It's not a position where a lot of youngsters make it, but there are at least two excellent prospects at first.

This article is the second in our (deliberately-paced) annual series of PECOTA-based prospect rankings. For the first article in the series, and a discussion of methodology, head back here.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

March 20, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects

0

Nate Silver

With some new features, PECOTA's better-prepared than ever to tell you where Matt Wieters ranks among promising backstops.

I've kept you all waiting so long for the PECOTA Takes on Prospects series that I'm going to eschew any lengthy philosophical discussions. Instead, let me quickly tick off the new features that should make these rankings more accurate-or at least less inaccurate-than ever before:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Explaining the new charts and graphics you'll find spattered across the new generation of player cards.

One of the trickier elements of forecasting the performance of baseball players is resolving the ambiguities between playing time and performance. Only a small handful of players-established stars in the prime of their careers with unblemished injury track records-are essentially guaranteed an everyday presence in their lineups. In drafting our fantasy depth charts and reviewing both PECOTA and each player's bill of health, we felt comfortable assigning a full 95 percent contingent of playing time to just 12 position players: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, and Matt Holliday. Similarly, only 17 pitchers were assigned at least 200 innings. For most everyone else, the contingencies of injury, benching, or being forced into a time-share or platoon arrangement is a constant threat.

Read the full article...

Delivering something more substantive than the contesting evaluations of Roger Clemens' statistical record.

There has been a Dueling Banjos dynamic between two conflicting analyses that attempt to address the potential impact of performance enhancing drugs on Roger Clemens's career. One, put out by Hendricks Sports Management (Clemens's agency) suggests that Clemens's late-career success is relatively normal, citing a handful of specific examples like Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling. The other, prepared by the Wharton School of Business for last Sunday's New York Times, uses a broader set of "durable" comparable pitchers, and comes to the opposite conclusion.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 31, 2007 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West

0

Nate Silver

To catch the young D'backs for the division, the other contending teams--including the defending NL champs--will have to shift team-building philosophies.

This is the last of a six-part preview of the impending offseason. Once I hit the 'submit' button and send this article to Christina, my column output is likely to be sporadic over the next several weeks as I tend to BP2K8 and PECOTA. I'll still be pitching in on Unfiltered in the meantime, and we'll have plenty of coverage for you as the stove turns from lukewarm to white hot.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>