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Nate Silver 

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01-31

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Teams Look Best Over the Next Half-Decade?
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Nate Silver

09-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Tiger Plan
by
Nate Silver

02-08

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: 2003 PECOTA Preview: The American League
by
Nate Silver

01-18

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

11-09

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7

The BP Wayback Machine: Fresh Blood
by
Nate Silver

08-24

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

08-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Setting the Stage for 2005: Steroids
by
Nate Silver

07-20

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Injury Nexus
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

05-04

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The BP Wayback Machine: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

03-30

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

02-10

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Neighborly Baseball
by
Nate Silver

12-15

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6

The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

08-25

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12

The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

05-26

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5

The BP Wayback Machine: How Do You Rate Relief?
by
Nate Silver

04-05

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Snowbound Schedule
by
Nate Silver

03-01

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

05-07

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35

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

03-26

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22

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests
by
Nate Silver

03-24

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59

State of the Prospectus
by
Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein

02-23

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43

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds
by
Nate Silver

01-12

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7

Prospectus Q&A: Rickey Henderson
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

11-17

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16

Hot Stove Preview
by
Nate Silver

10-02

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7

Playoff Prospectus: White Sox versus Rays
by
Nate Silver

08-22

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)
by
Nate Silver

08-21

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
by
Nate Silver

08-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers
by
Nate Silver

08-07

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Lies, Damned Lies: Bonds Bingo
by
Nate Silver

07-24

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Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag
by
Nate Silver

07-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Flipping the Switch
by
Nate Silver

06-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

06-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t
by
Nate Silver

06-11

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Chipper's Chase of .400
by
Nate Silver

06-05

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

05-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-15

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

05-08

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen
by
Nate Silver

04-25

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Age of Suspicion
by
Nate Silver

04-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays
by
Nate Silver

04-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under
by
Nate Silver

04-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
by
Nate Silver

03-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

02-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
by
Nate Silver

02-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Smoking Gun?
by
Nate Silver

10-31

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West
by
Nate Silver

10-30

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

10-24

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Playoff Prospectus: Rockies versus Red Sox
by
Nate Silver

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The players ranked from number 26 through 50 in the third annual ranking of the game's best.

Welcome, ladies and gents, to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. What, you are probably wondering, is the Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft? It is the answer to this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take-and in what order would you take them-if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term?

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August 14, 2008 10:35 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers

0

Nate Silver

Charting Detroit's future course now that at least one observer's running up the white flag.

Having dropped 10 of their last 13 ballgames, the Tigers have gone from longshot to no shot, with now barely more than a three percent chance of reaching the playoffs. While the Tigers have not officially waved the white flag, I am going to do so for them, by unveiling our first "Tufte Takes On" piece of the season.

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Time's running short, but so are the list of potential fits for the former Giants slugger.

Oh, it was going to happen. It was just a matter of when. Not in March or April, maybe, and probably not in May or June. As the trade deadline approached, some team was going to look out at the trade market, realize they were going to need to give up three or four quality prospects to acquire a good outfielder, and realize at that price it was worth signing ... Barry Bonds.

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July 24, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark

0

Nate Silver

The venues are getting smaller, but is this really what's best, and what else can the industry add to the live experience?

Trivia question: Yankee Stadium seats 57,545 fans, which is presently the largest capacity of any park in Major League Baseball. When it closes this year, and is replaced by a ballpark that seats roughly 6,000 fewer fans, which facility will take its place as the largest stadium in MLB?

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July 11, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag

0

Nate Silver

Do these flags fly forever too?

We've become far more sophisticated over the years about performing financial analysis on trades. We now understand, for instance, that there is a very measurable financial benefit to a team when it makes the playoffs. We also understand that the way you create long-term value in baseball is by employing players who are still in their reserve-clause or arbitration seasons, and paying them a fraction of their market value. It is the interweaving of these two factors that creates most of the trade market.

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The Rays power up surprised some, but they're just getting started.

It is rare in baseball to talk about team cohesion. In contrast to the other major sports, there are relatively few interactions between players on the same club. The pitcher stands out there on the mound all by himself and throws the ball; the hitter stands there in the batters' box all by himself and hopes to hit it. There is no baseball equivalent of John Stockton passing to Karl Malone, or Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne.

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June 29, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages

0

Nate Silver

Which teams enjoy outsized advantages from playing at home?

Home-field advantage is making a little bit of a comeback this year, with the home team thus far having won 56.2 percent of major league baseball games. This is actually down a few ticks from where it was several weeks ago; at the beginning of June, home teams had won almost 58 percent of their games. Nevertheless, this is quite high by the standards of recent history. Prior to World War II (when travel was more burdensome and road trips much longer), home-field advantage was more profound in baseball, but since then it has been exceptionally stable, with the home team winning about 54 percent of games each season. So, is there something systematic that is causing the home-field numbers to increase this year? Or has it just been some kind of statistical fluke?

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June 19, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t

0

Nate Silver

Evaluating performance levels of populations of players by position over the last half-century.

In playing around with the McCain-Obama polling data over at my political blogging project, I came across a procedure known as a LOESS regression. LOESS is a way to create smooth-looking curves out of sequential data. Some of LOESS's virtues are aesthetic; the curves it produces seem to look and feel just right. But it can also be considerably more robust than something like a moving average in handling time series data, performing more strongly in the presence of outliers. Since we look at all sorts of time-series data in baseball, LOESS ought potentially to have all kinds applications to the game.

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Things are getting interesting, so let's talk about the odds.

Chipper Jones is not a .400 hitter. However, that doesn’t mean that he won’t hit .400. What we have on our hands is a classic case of the irresistible force against the immovable object. On the one hand, it’s exceptionally unlikely that a player who has hit .310 over a 15-year major league career suddenly woke up one morning at 35 years old and became a .400 hitter. Jones is seeing the ball exceptionally well, and apart from frequent problems with injury, he has aged relatively gracefully. He’s also undoubtedly squeezed a few lucky hits in between the shortstop and the second baseman, and had a few Texas Leaguers drop in.

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June 5, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop

0

Nate Silver

The early returns on PECOTA's projecting last season's big-bonus draft choices.

This was the first year that we attempted to run PECOTA forecasts for players with no professional playing time whatsoever. It was a decision born out of necessity: because of all the brinkmanship in the signing bonus negotiation period last year, a large number of elite draft picks either did not start their seasons until August, or didn't play professionally at all.

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Projecting the value of the best-hitting pitchers, as well as the worst.

In the six years that I've generated PECOTA forecasts, I've never bothered to run hitting projections for pitchers. In fact, I've regarded pitcher hitting as something of a nuisance; I specifically screen out any pitchers so that they won't be selected as comparable players. This isn't an aesthetic judgment by any means-watching pitchers try (and fail) to hit is one of my favorite pastimes. But since even the pitchers who make 35 starts a year won't usually get more than 80 or 90 plate appearances, I've generally figured that it wasn't quite worth the trouble.

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May 22, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects

0

Nate Silver

Although it might seem as if the best shortstop prospects are already playing every day in the majors, there's an interesting crop on the way up.

Excellent Prospects

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