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Nate Silver 

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01-31

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Teams Look Best Over the Next Half-Decade?
by
Nate Silver

09-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Tiger Plan
by
Nate Silver

02-08

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: 2003 PECOTA Preview: The American League
by
Nate Silver

01-18

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

11-09

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7

The BP Wayback Machine: Fresh Blood
by
Nate Silver

08-24

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

08-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Setting the Stage for 2005: Steroids
by
Nate Silver

07-20

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Injury Nexus
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

05-04

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The BP Wayback Machine: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

03-30

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

02-10

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Neighborly Baseball
by
Nate Silver

12-15

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6

The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

08-25

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12

The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

05-26

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5

The BP Wayback Machine: How Do You Rate Relief?
by
Nate Silver

04-05

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Snowbound Schedule
by
Nate Silver

03-01

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

05-07

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35

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

03-26

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22

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests
by
Nate Silver

03-24

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59

State of the Prospectus
by
Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein

02-23

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43

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds
by
Nate Silver

01-12

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7

Prospectus Q&A: Rickey Henderson
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

11-17

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16

Hot Stove Preview
by
Nate Silver

10-02

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7

Playoff Prospectus: White Sox versus Rays
by
Nate Silver

08-22

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)
by
Nate Silver

08-21

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
by
Nate Silver

08-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers
by
Nate Silver

08-07

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Lies, Damned Lies: Bonds Bingo
by
Nate Silver

07-24

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Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag
by
Nate Silver

07-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Flipping the Switch
by
Nate Silver

06-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

06-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t
by
Nate Silver

06-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Chipper's Chase of .400
by
Nate Silver

06-05

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Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

05-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-15

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

05-08

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen
by
Nate Silver

04-25

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Age of Suspicion
by
Nate Silver

04-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays
by
Nate Silver

04-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under
by
Nate Silver

04-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
by
Nate Silver

03-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

02-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
by
Nate Silver

02-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Smoking Gun?
by
Nate Silver

10-31

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West
by
Nate Silver

10-30

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

10-24

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Playoff Prospectus: Rockies versus Red Sox
by
Nate Silver

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As we head for the season's home stretch, Nate reminds us that even comfortable leads late in the season aren't sure things.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

There's no such thing as a lock, as Nate discovered in his research on late-season collapses, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on September 27, 2007.


Read the full article...

As Mariano Rivera leaves his 1,000th appearance behind, see how he stacks up according to Nate's standards.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Before Goose Gossage got into the Hall of Fame and Mariano Rivera reeled off another six superb seasons, Nate turned his statistical eye on the bullpen in the following article, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on January 6, 2005.

Read the full article...

Revisiting Nate's attempt to quantify the trade-off in scheduling cold-weather games.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

As we welcome another stretch of cold-weather baseball and its attendant scheduling concerns, here's another look at Nate Silver's statistical take on the subject in a "Lies, Damned Lies" column from April 13, 2007.

Read the full article...

What does a voice from BP's past have to say about the prospect of a second wild card?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

We've offered a number of more contemporary takes on the matter, but with the prospect of a second wild card looming, let's flash back to what Nate had to say on the subject in an article that originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on September 17, 2003.

Read the full article...

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May 7, 2009 8:20 pm

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game

35

Nate Silver

Figuring out who uses or used, when and why, and what we can take from the exercise.

If you're like me, you've played something called 'The Steroids Game.' The Steroids Game takes place when you sit around a bar, or a rec room, or a ballpark, with a number of baseball-loving friends, and try and guess who is on performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). Perhaps, if you're particularly deranged, you've even played Rotisserie Steroids, which is just like regular rotisserie baseball except that the categories are games suspended (GS), cameramen kicked (CK), testicles ruptured (TR), days spent in the company of Jose Canseco (DSJC).

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March 26, 2009 2:39 pm

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests

22

Nate Silver

Finding out what happens when you project people to be slightly different from the way they are.

Stress tests are not just for cardiac patients and big failing banks: we can also apply them to baseball players. What if Tiny Tim Lincecum were really Tall Tim Lincecum? What if Albert Pujols was older than purported? What if we took a right-handed pitcher and magically turned him into a lefty?

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A change in who's holding the reins, and what it means for BP.com going forward.

Baseball Prospectus is a small business run by a handful of exceptionally dedicated but utterly overworked individuals. This is occasionally exasperating, but has more often been exhilarating; we're always facing new challenges and have grown accustomed to learning on the fly. It does mean, however, that we do not have a lot of redundancy in place. When someone leaves, or has to pull back on their contributions, whether because they've become a father or joined a major league front office or decided to pursue another business opportunity, it is not a trivial matter to replace them.

It was barely a year ago when I launched FiveThirtyEight.com, a political number-crunching website that I expected to receive a few hundred hits a day and occupy perhaps five hours of my time per week. Since then, thanks to a combination of being in the right place at the right time and making a few lucky predictions, the site is accumulating both many degrees of magnitude more traffic than that, and occupying a much larger fraction of my time than I could have ever anticipated. I feel very, very fortunate about all of this; indeed, there have been many moments, such as upon appearing on Stephen Colbert's show, when I felt as though I'd won the nerd lottery. However, as you've undoubtedly noticed, these other opportunities have meant that I've been able to devote less of my time to Baseball Prospectus.

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February 23, 2009 12:09 pm

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds

43

Nate Silver

It's A-Rod, not John Law, with a look at whether he will set the all-time mark for career home runs.

We're less than two full years removed from Barry Bonds' somber, strange, and soulless quest to break Henry Aaron's lifetime home-run record. It was a spectacle that most sports fans-even the few like me who were relatively sympathetic towards Bonds' plight-would go to great lengths to avoid having to experience again.

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Back in August of 2003, Nate Silver and Will Carroll had the opportunity to speak with Henderson while the Dodgers took batting practice at Wrigley Field.

Born into a single-parent home in Chicago in 1958, Henderson moved to Oakland at age seven, where he caught games at the Coliseum in between starring in two sports (Henderson was an All-American running back) and at Oakland Technical High School. Henderson was selected by the A's in the fourth round of the 1976 draft and progressed quickly up the minor league ladder, displaying his trademark speed and plate discipline at each level.

Read the full article...

November 17, 2008 1:48 pm

Hot Stove Preview

16

Nate Silver

The division with the photo finish has some jumbled franchises sorting through disjointed options.

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The Sox played their way into October with two dramatic wins this week, while the Rays won their division with six dramatic months. Who holds the advantage?

Each year, the White Sox graciously host a University of Chicago alumni event, where Christina Kahrl and I speak to 150 or more nerds in the U.S. Cellular Conference & Learning Center. The group gets tickets to the game too-which usually means a contest against the Orioles or the Royals, or perhaps a thrilling interleague tilt against the Pirates; clubs that don't motivate many Chicagoans to give up an afternoon from their short summers to come out to the ballpark.

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Players number 1 through 25 in the third annual ranking of the game's best.

This is Part 2 of yesterday's Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft, which included players ranked from number 26 through 50, as well as honorable mentions.

Read the full article...

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