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Happy Holidays! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 29

Nate Silver 

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01-31

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Teams Look Best Over the Next Half-Decade?
by
Nate Silver

09-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Tiger Plan
by
Nate Silver

02-08

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: 2003 PECOTA Preview: The American League
by
Nate Silver

01-18

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

11-09

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7

The BP Wayback Machine: Fresh Blood
by
Nate Silver

08-24

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

08-17

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The BP Wayback Machine: Setting the Stage for 2005: Steroids
by
Nate Silver

07-20

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The BP Wayback Machine: The Injury Nexus
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

05-04

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The BP Wayback Machine: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

03-30

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

02-10

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Neighborly Baseball
by
Nate Silver

12-15

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6

The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

08-25

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12

The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

05-26

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5

The BP Wayback Machine: How Do You Rate Relief?
by
Nate Silver

04-05

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Snowbound Schedule
by
Nate Silver

03-01

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

05-07

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35

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

03-26

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22

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests
by
Nate Silver

03-24

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59

State of the Prospectus
by
Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein

02-23

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43

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds
by
Nate Silver

01-12

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7

Prospectus Q&A: Rickey Henderson
by
Nate Silver and Will Carroll

11-17

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16

Hot Stove Preview
by
Nate Silver

10-02

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7

Playoff Prospectus: White Sox versus Rays
by
Nate Silver

08-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)
by
Nate Silver

08-21

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
by
Nate Silver

08-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers
by
Nate Silver

08-07

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Lies, Damned Lies: Bonds Bingo
by
Nate Silver

07-24

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Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag
by
Nate Silver

07-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Flipping the Switch
by
Nate Silver

06-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

06-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t
by
Nate Silver

06-11

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Chipper's Chase of .400
by
Nate Silver

06-05

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Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

05-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-15

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

05-08

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen
by
Nate Silver

04-25

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Age of Suspicion
by
Nate Silver

04-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays
by
Nate Silver

04-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under
by
Nate Silver

04-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
by
Nate Silver

03-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

02-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
by
Nate Silver

02-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Smoking Gun?
by
Nate Silver

10-31

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West
by
Nate Silver

10-30

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

10-24

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Playoff Prospectus: Rockies versus Red Sox
by
Nate Silver

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Which players did PECOTA's five-year forecasts like 10 years ago?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Ten years ago, Nate Silver looked five years ahead in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published on April 2, 2003.

Read the full article...

Are pennant races the only thing that can keep fans coming to the park in September?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Should rebuilding teams sign recognizable veterans in order to generate fan interest? Nate looked for an answer in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on August 25, 2004.


Read the full article...

With PECOTA projections for 2013 due out Monday, we take a look back 10 years at the first-ever PECOTA team projections.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

It's been a decade since the first time PECOTA projected team performance at BP in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published on March 19, 2003.
 


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How did PECOTA do in projecting 2007's big-bonus draftees?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Several years later, we can assess PECOTA's projections for top 2007 draft picks in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on June 5, 2008.
 


Read the full article...

Is the recent wave of hirings of rookie managers really something new? As Nate wrote eight years ago, it might just be cyclical.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

On Thursday, Colin Wyers explained why some teams' recent willingness to hire inexperienced managers might signal a new trend. But this isn't the first time that teams have gone through a phase of minting new managers, as Nate Silver pointed out (with a premonitory comparison to politics) in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on November 4, 2004.
 


Read the full article...

Figuring out who uses or used, when and why, and what we can take from the exercise.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Without a positive test, is it possible to say which players are most likely to be using steroids? Nate attempted one approach in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on May 7th, 2009.
 


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Can statistics help us see the effects of steroid use?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Can we detect the use of steroids statistically? Nate attempted one approach in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published on March 30, 2005.
 


Read the full article...

A look back at a classic study of pitcher injuries.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Though we still have a long way to go, we have made some progress in preventing pitcher injuries. We may have more manageable workloads to thank for that, and one of the most influential articles concerning how to handle hurlers is the one reproduced below, which was originally published on February 26, 2003.
 


Read the full article...

The Rays are 12-1 at home this season. Where does their home-field advantage come from?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

What is it about Tropicana Field that makes the Rays so successful at home? Nate looked at the origins of home-field advantage and made some interesting discoveries about domes in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on June 29, 2008
 


Read the full article...

Once upon a time, the Marlins were big sellers, not big buyers. Their reputation took years to recover from their last big sell-off, but are firesales sometimes justified?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Nate tackled the question of when it makes sense to be a seller in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on November 22, 2005.

Read the full article...

Nate wonders about an overflow effect in two-team markets and finds some surprising results.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Bradford Doolittle wrote about the divergent directions of the Cubs and White Sox on Thursday, but how might the dire outlook for the White Sox and the hope on the horizon for the Cubs impact attendance in the Second City? See what Nate had to say on the subject in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2006.

Read the full article...

In the wake of the Matt Moore extension, revisit Nate's discussion of the perils of counting on pitching prospects and his remarks on the most promising southpaws.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Last week, the Rays signed young lefty Matt Moore to an extension that should prove to be team-friendly if he stays healthy, but as Nate discussed in an article which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2007, it's never safe to assume that a young pitcher's arm will remain intact.


Read the full article...

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