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Nate Silver |
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February 8, 2013 5:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: 2003 PECOTA Preview: The American League |
With PECOTA projections for 2013 due out Monday, we take a look back 10 years at the first-ever PECOTA team projections.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
It's been a decade since the first time PECOTA projected team performance at BP in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published on March 19, 2003.
January 18, 2013 5:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Projecting the Top of the Crop |
How did PECOTA do in projecting 2007's big-bonus draftees?
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Several years later, we can assess PECOTA's projections for top 2007 draft picks in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on June 5, 2008.
November 9, 2012 5:56 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Fresh Blood |
Is the recent wave of hirings of rookie managers really something new? As Nate wrote eight years ago, it might just be cyclical.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
On Thursday, Colin Wyers explained why some teams' recent willingness to hire inexperienced managers might signal a new trend. But this isn't the first time that teams have gone through a phase of minting new managers, as Nate Silver pointed out (with a premonitory comparison to politics) in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on November 4, 2004.
August 24, 2012 8:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: The Steroids Game |
Figuring out who uses or used, when and why, and what we can take from the exercise.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Without a positive test, is it possible to say which players are most likely to be using steroids? Nate attempted one approach in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on May 7th, 2009.
August 17, 2012 5:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Setting the Stage for 2005: Steroids |
Can statistics help us see the effects of steroid use?
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Can we detect the use of steroids statistically? Nate attempted one approach in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published on March 30, 2005.
July 20, 2012 5:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: The Injury Nexus |
A look back at a classic study of pitcher injuries.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Though we still have a long way to go, we have made some progress in preventing pitcher injuries. We may have more manageable workloads to thank for that, and one of the most influential articles concerning how to handle hurlers is the one reproduced below, which was originally published on February 26, 2003.
May 4, 2012 3:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Home-Field Advantages |
The Rays are 12-1 at home this season. Where does their home-field advantage come from?
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
What is it about Tropicana Field that makes the Rays so successful at home? Nate looked at the origins of home-field advantage and made some interesting discoveries about domes in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on June 29, 2008
March 30, 2012 3:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Defending Jeffrey |
Once upon a time, the Marlins were big sellers, not big buyers. Their reputation took years to recover from their last big sell-off, but are firesales sometimes justified?
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Nate tackled the question of when it makes sense to be a seller in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on November 22, 2005.
February 10, 2012 3:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Neighborly Baseball |
Nate wonders about an overflow effect in two-team markets and finds some surprising results.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Bradford Doolittle wrote about the divergent directions of the Cubs and White Sox on Thursday, but how might the dire outlook for the White Sox and the hope on the horizon for the Cubs impact attendance in the Second City? See what Nate had to say on the subject in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2006.
December 15, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers |
In the wake of the Matt Moore extension, revisit Nate's discussion of the perils of counting on pitching prospects and his remarks on the most promising southpaws.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Last week, the Rays signed young lefty Matt Moore to an extension that should prove to be team-friendly if he stays healthy, but as Nate discussed in an article which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2007, it's never safe to assume that a young pitcher's arm will remain intact.
August 25, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It |
As we head for the season's home stretch, Nate reminds us that even comfortable leads late in the season aren't sure things.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
There's no such thing as a lock, as Nate discovered in his research on late-season collapses, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on September 27, 2007.
May 26, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: How Do You Rate Relief? |
As Mariano Rivera leaves his 1,000th appearance behind, see how he stacks up according to Nate's standards.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Before Goose Gossage got into the Hall of Fame and Mariano Rivera reeled off another six superb seasons, Nate turned his statistical eye on the bullpen in the following article, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on January 6, 2005.
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Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
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