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Nate Silver |
The BP Wayback Machine: Neighborly Baseball |
Nate wonders about an overflow effect in two-team markets and finds some surprising results.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Bradford Doolittle wrote about the divergent directions of the Cubs and White Sox on Thursday, but how might the dire outlook for the White Sox and the hope on the horizon for the Cubs impact attendance in the Second City? See what Nate had to say on the subject in the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2006.
December 15, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers |
In the wake of the Matt Moore extension, revisit Nate's discussion of the perils of counting on pitching prospects and his remarks on the most promising southpaws.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Last week, the Rays signed young lefty Matt Moore to an extension that should prove to be team-friendly if he stays healthy, but as Nate discussed in an article which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2007, it's never safe to assume that a young pitcher's arm will remain intact.
August 25, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It |
As we head for the season's home stretch, Nate reminds us that even comfortable leads late in the season aren't sure things.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
There's no such thing as a lock, as Nate discovered in his research on late-season collapses, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on September 27, 2007.
May 26, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: How Do You Rate Relief? |
As Mariano Rivera leaves his 1,000th appearance behind, see how he stacks up according to Nate's standards.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
Before Goose Gossage got into the Hall of Fame and Mariano Rivera reeled off another six superb seasons, Nate turned his statistical eye on the bullpen in the following article, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on January 6, 2005.
April 5, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Snowbound Schedule |
Revisiting Nate's attempt to quantify the trade-off in scheduling cold-weather games.
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
As we welcome another stretch of cold-weather baseball and its attendant scheduling concerns, here's another look at Nate Silver's statistical take on the subject in a "Lies, Damned Lies" column from April 13, 2007.
March 1, 2011 9:00 am
The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale |
What does a voice from BP's past have to say about the prospect of a second wild card?
While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.
We've offered a number of more contemporary takes on the matter, but with the prospect of a second wild card looming, let's flash back to what Nate had to say on the subject in an article that originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on September 17, 2003.
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May 7, 2009 8:20 pm
Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game |
Figuring out who uses or used, when and why, and what we can take from the exercise.
If you're like me, you've played something called 'The Steroids Game.' The Steroids Game takes place when you sit around a bar, or a rec room, or a ballpark, with a number of baseball-loving friends, and try and guess who is on performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). Perhaps, if you're particularly deranged, you've even played Rotisserie Steroids, which is just like regular rotisserie baseball except that the categories are games suspended (GS), cameramen kicked (CK), testicles ruptured (TR), days spent in the company of Jose Canseco (DSJC).
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March 26, 2009 2:39 pm
Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests |
Finding out what happens when you project people to be slightly different from the way they are.
Stress tests are not just for cardiac patients and big failing banks: we can also apply them to baseball players. What if Tiny Tim Lincecum were really Tall Tim Lincecum? What if Albert Pujols was older than purported? What if we took a right-handed pitcher and magically turned him into a lefty?
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March 24, 2009 12:16 pm
State of the Prospectus |
A change in who's holding the reins, and what it means for BP.com going forward.
Baseball Prospectus is a small business run by a handful of exceptionally dedicated but utterly overworked individuals. This is occasionally exasperating, but has more often been exhilarating; we're always facing new challenges and have grown accustomed to learning on the fly. It does mean, however, that we do not have a lot of redundancy in place. When someone leaves, or has to pull back on their contributions, whether because they've become a father or joined a major league front office or decided to pursue another business opportunity, it is not a trivial matter to replace them.
It was barely a year ago when I launched FiveThirtyEight.com, a political number-crunching website that I expected to receive a few hundred hits a day and occupy perhaps five hours of my time per week. Since then, thanks to a combination of being in the right place at the right time and making a few lucky predictions, the site is accumulating both many degrees of magnitude more traffic than that, and occupying a much larger fraction of my time than I could have ever anticipated. I feel very, very fortunate about all of this; indeed, there have been many moments, such as upon appearing on Stephen Colbert's show, when I felt as though I'd won the nerd lottery. However, as you've undoubtedly noticed, these other opportunities have meant that I've been able to devote less of my time to Baseball Prospectus.
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February 23, 2009 12:09 pm
Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds |
It's A-Rod, not John Law, with a look at whether he will set the all-time mark for career home runs.
We're less than two full years removed from Barry Bonds' somber, strange, and soulless quest to break Henry Aaron's lifetime home-run record. It was a spectacle that most sports fans-even the few like me who were relatively sympathetic towards Bonds' plight-would go to great lengths to avoid having to experience again.
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January 12, 2009 2:46 pm
Prospectus Q&A: Rickey Henderson |
Back in August of 2003, Nate Silver and Will Carroll had the opportunity to speak with Henderson while the Dodgers took batting practice at Wrigley Field.
Born into a single-parent home in Chicago in 1958, Henderson moved to Oakland at age seven, where he caught games at the Coliseum in between starring in two sports (Henderson was an All-American running back) and at Oakland Technical High School. Henderson was selected by the A's in the fourth round of the 1976 draft and progressed quickly up the minor league ladder, displaying his trademark speed and plate discipline at each level.
November 17, 2008 1:48 pm
Hot Stove Preview |
The division with the photo finish has some jumbled franchises sorting through disjointed options.
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Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
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