In the second of a two-part series, Mike reviews how his senior-circuit bid value recommendations fared.
Last week, I took a look back at how my outlier predictions did for American League players in 2014. This week, I will take a look at the National League.
What you will find below is a complete list of players where my bid limit was $3 higher or lower than the average expert league price in the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars NL-only auctions. In addition, based on a reader suggestion rather than simply “grade” how well my predictions did in retrospect, I will attempt to explain why each specific bid limit was particularly aggressive or timid.
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The Cardinals have their backs up against the wall facing the Giants ace, while their (possibly) ailing stud tries to extend their season one more game.
After the Cardinals took an early lead in Game Four of the NLCS, the Giants rallied and held on for a 6-4 win to take a commanding 3-1 advantage in the series. Here are the PECOTA odds and the matchups for Game Five of the NLCS.
In the first of a two-part series, Mike reviews how his junior-circuit bid value recommendations fared.
If you have read my work for any appreciable amount of time (either here at Baseball Prospectus or previously at my blog), you know that I am a significant believer in accountability. Many of us post our predictions in the spring. In turn, many of you rely on these predictions to construct your fantasy teams. Unfortunately, few fantasy writers revisit their work after the season and offer an honest assessment of how well or poorly they did. There are many reasons for this, and I could write an entire piece simply discussing why we as an “industry” are not very good at self-auditing. The short answer is that while it is human nature to pat ourselves on the back for our successes, we don’t really like to call attention to our failures.
I was guilty of this last year as well. After posting bids at BP for the first time in 2013, I wrote absolutely nothing about how I did (which kind of stinks, because I actually had a pretty good year). It is easy to criticize others for not auditing their work, but at a minimum I have to hold myself up to my own standard.
The Cardinals nearly let the series get away from them, but four home runs make a lot of sins look small.
Postseason baseball brings with it an endless stream of clichés and meaningless bromides, and one of those tired bromides is that this game is a “must win.” Once you reach this point in the season, every game is a must-win game. Lose three game in the League Division Series and you’re out; lose four in the League Championship Series or the World Series and the same precept applies. “Must win” is a term that gets dragged out endlessly, but “must not lose” is probably the more apt term.
Even on the road, the Giants are slight favorites to put the Cardinals in a deep hole.
Madison Bumgarner continued his postseason dominance, putting up 7 2/3 shutout innings to lead the Giants to a 3-0 win in Game One of the NLCS. Here are the lineups and PECOTA projections for Game Two.
The Nats had the pitching advantage on paper -- again -- but they lost -- again, and some odd bullpen maneuvering by Matt Williams certainly didn't help.
At the beginning of the National League Division Series between the Washington Nationals and the San Francisco Giants, it seemed that some were overestimating the Nationals and underestimating the Giants (you can perhaps include me in this group, as I predicted that the Nats would sweep the Giants). When this series is looked back at in a few years – if we remember it at all – it is entirely possible that the opposite will occur, and we will underestimate how close this series was. After four games, the Nationals and Giants played 45 innings, scored nine runs apiece and were evenly matched throughout. Yet it was the Giants who walked away not only with a victory but a victory in a mere four games.
The Giants and Nationals will play what feels like Game Four, while the Dodger will lean on a returning Ryu.
The Nationals were one out away from evening up the NLDS on Saturday night, but instead wound up on the wrong end of a historic, 18-inning affair, losing 2-1 to the Giants on a Brandon Belt home run. Now they try to become just the ninth team in postseason history to win a five0game series after losing the first two games. Here is a look at the PECOTA odds and projected lineups for Game Three of the NLDS.
The Giants come away with the longest game in postseason history.
This is the kind of game recap that needs two recaps. There were two separate stories that took place during the course of this historic game, the longest postseason game by time and one of the two longest postseason games by innings played. The first story was about the great pitching duel between Jordan Zimmermann and Tim Hudson. The second story was about eight innings of bullpen mastery or offensive futility (depending upon your point of view) that ended with a Brandon Belt blast in the top of the 18th. Both stories were woven together and made possible by a Drew Storen blown save that perhaps should never have happened.
The Nats bring a deep roster, a particularly talented rotation, and the NL's best record to face a team that has been an October juggernaut.
The Nationals come into the series with the National League's best record and boast an impressive rotation and deep lineup. They'll take on a Giants team that won't have it's ace until later in the series after Madison Bumgarner dominated in the Wild Card Game, helping San Franscisco advance to the NLDS. However, the Giants' offense has more pop than the teams they brought to October in the recent past and their manager has proven he can pull the right strings in the postseason.