Mike updates his bid limits based on the latest news from around the league.
Finally, after months of arguing about awards, arguing about Hall of Famers, watching the football playoffs out of sheer boredom, watching the NCAA men’s basketball tournament out of sheer boredom, and arguing about Kris Bryant’s service time, we’re almost there. Three days from now, the Cardinals and Cubs will kick off the regular season in Sunday night primetime, and once again all will be right with the world.
We are close enough to the start of the season that most of the adjustments in this update are on the bottom end guys. For home leagues that are more traditional and auction this weekend (or next weekend), this is the list I want to be able to use with confidence. I’m not looking to make significant changes, so there are only going to be a few players listed below who are above the $10 bid threshold who I will actually write a little blurb about below.
The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.
Not a subscriber?
Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.
Mike updates his recommended bid limits based on the latest news.
The third update of my fantasy auction values brings another set of dollar values to look at, this time from the expert Tout Wars auctions, which were held this past weekend in New York City. Having a troika of expert auctions to look at gives us even more expert opinions to look at, and gives me yet another opportunity to move my prices up or down based on events at the auctions.
This isn’t the only reason I move my prices up or down, of course. Breaking news can also influence my bid limits for better or worse. This isn’t an exercise in being reactive to every little tidbit of news coming out of Florida or Arizona but rather an opportunity to adjust prices based on larger scale news.
If I manage to win Tout Wars this year, I owe my colleague Jeff Quinton an adult beverage. Or perhaps a tasty submarine sandwich from his favorite convenience store food chain.
If you don’t read Quinton’s work here at Baseball Prospectus (and if you don’t, you’re doing yourself a great disservice), he talks at great length about allowing past results to create the framework for bad decision-making. And while I liked to think I wasn’t doing this when it comes to Tout Wars this is exactly what I have been doing up until this year.
As promised, here are Baseball Prospectus’ rankings for players who play in draft leagues.
This is a list of the top 300 players as ranked by Bret Sayre and Mike Gianella. This list assumes standard 23-man rosters with two catchers, which is why the list is so catcher-heavy at the bottom. If you play in a league with one catcher, adjust accordingly.
Mike updates his recommended bids based on expert auctions and recent news.
Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction. In most cases, I moved my prices up or down based on the results from the CBS and LABR NL and AL-only auctions in late February and early March. I may be all hot and bothered by Anthony Gose, but if his price is sitting in the mid-single digits in AL-only, there is little if any reason that I should be pushing him to $13. On the other hand, the purpose of this exercise isn’t solely to adjust bid limits based on what players went for in LABR. I want to express a preference, not merely follow the herd.
Adjustments below are for AL and NL only in the case of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. Appropriate mixed bid adjustments will be reflected in the table at the bottom of this article.
Mike examines the rosters purchased by a couple of experts in AL- and NL-only auctions.
On March 7 and 8, LABR held their AL and NL-only auctions in Phoenix, Arizona. Last week, I recapped both auctions for Baseball Prospectus (links for the American League and National League). Today, I thought I’d take a deeper look at some of the auction strategies for two participants: Chris Liss of Rotowire in the American League and Doug Dennis of Baseball HQ in the American League.
I didn’t randomly select their auctions out of a hat for review. Liss and Dennis both had very strong auctions, even though they have completely different approaches and philosophies regarding auction management and roster philosophy. By analyzing what they did and how they performed, I hope to provide assistance to Baseball Prospectus readers preparing for their own auctions later this month and in early April.
Mike recaps the trends that emerged in the senior-circuit LABR auction, including a big one on the pitching side.
2015 marks the 22nd year of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality. Commonly known as LABR for short, this is the longest running and best-known of fantasy expert league in the game. Bret Sayre and I had the privilege of participating in the mixed league draft last month. This past weekend in Arizona, it was the AL and NL-only leagues’ turn. Yesterday, I took a look at the American League results. Today, I will look at the NL-only results. As a reminder, I’m less concerned about individual picks and more looking at the auction
If you want to see how the entire auction shook out, the results can be found here. My analysis is focused on auction trends that will hopefully help you in your own auctions this year. While it is fun to ooooh and aaaah over certain individual picks, it is far more useful to see if there are any significant shifts in expert spending. In my experience, what happens in LABR does have an influence in home league auction(s).