An in-depth look at junior-circuit bats' fantasy performance during the past year.
Welcome to my second annual look at retrospective player valuation here at Baseball Prospectus. Over the next few weeks, I will be writing a series of posts examining how players performed from a fantasy perspective in 2014. This is the first post in a series of six. The first two posts in the series will focus on AL-only leagues, the next two will shift their focus to NL-only, and the final two posts examine the more difficult terrain (from a valuation perspective) of mixed leagues.
Before I dig in, here is a brief description of the charts below.
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The Twins are teeming with top prospects, but there are big leaguers who could help your fantasy squad in 2015, too.
Byron Buxton. Miguel Sano. Alex Meyer. Kohl Stewart. Eddie Rosario.
This is how 2013/2014’s offseason preview for the Minnesota Twins opened, and with good reason. It seemed like a fait accompli that most or all of these prospects would begin their promising big league futures with the Twins at some point in 2014. As we know now with the benefit of sweet, delicious hindsight, it didn’t work out that way. Every one of these future studs hit a bump in the road, and not one of the Twins vaunted five put up a single MLB at-bat or inning pitched in 2014.
The future still looks bright for both these prospects and the Twins, but 2014 reminded us that if you want to make God laugh, show him a well-defined prospect timetable. With the exception of Stewart, all of these prospects could still make an impact in 2015 but 2014 reminds us to temper our expectations. Given the Twins fantasy outlook otherwise, for the most part we will be the same position in 2015 that we were in 2014: shying away from most of this roster in shallower formats while waiting for better days, both in the real world as well as in our fantasy realm.
In the second of a two-part series, Mike reviews how his senior-circuit bid value recommendations fared.
Last week, I took a look back at how my outlier predictions did for American League players in 2014. This week, I will take a look at the National League.
What you will find below is a complete list of players where my bid limit was $3 higher or lower than the average expert league price in the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars NL-only auctions. In addition, based on a reader suggestion rather than simply “grade” how well my predictions did in retrospect, I will attempt to explain why each specific bid limit was particularly aggressive or timid.
The Cardinals have their backs up against the wall facing the Giants ace, while their (possibly) ailing stud tries to extend their season one more game.
After the Cardinals took an early lead in Game Four of the NLCS, the Giants rallied and held on for a 6-4 win to take a commanding 3-1 advantage in the series. Here are the PECOTA odds and the matchups for Game Five of the NLCS.
In the first of a two-part series, Mike reviews how his junior-circuit bid value recommendations fared.
If you have read my work for any appreciable amount of time (either here at Baseball Prospectus or previously at my blog), you know that I am a significant believer in accountability. Many of us post our predictions in the spring. In turn, many of you rely on these predictions to construct your fantasy teams. Unfortunately, few fantasy writers revisit their work after the season and offer an honest assessment of how well or poorly they did. There are many reasons for this, and I could write an entire piece simply discussing why we as an “industry” are not very good at self-auditing. The short answer is that while it is human nature to pat ourselves on the back for our successes, we don’t really like to call attention to our failures.
I was guilty of this last year as well. After posting bids at BP for the first time in 2013, I wrote absolutely nothing about how I did (which kind of stinks, because I actually had a pretty good year). It is easy to criticize others for not auditing their work, but at a minimum I have to hold myself up to my own standard.
The Cardinals nearly let the series get away from them, but four home runs make a lot of sins look small.
Postseason baseball brings with it an endless stream of clichés and meaningless bromides, and one of those tired bromides is that this game is a “must win.” Once you reach this point in the season, every game is a must-win game. Lose three game in the League Division Series and you’re out; lose four in the League Championship Series or the World Series and the same precept applies. “Must win” is a term that gets dragged out endlessly, but “must not lose” is probably the more apt term.
Even on the road, the Giants are slight favorites to put the Cardinals in a deep hole.
Madison Bumgarner continued his postseason dominance, putting up 7 2/3 shutout innings to lead the Giants to a 3-0 win in Game One of the NLCS. Here are the lineups and PECOTA projections for Game Two.
The Nats had the pitching advantage on paper -- again -- but they lost -- again, and some odd bullpen maneuvering by Matt Williams certainly didn't help.
At the beginning of the National League Division Series between the Washington Nationals and the San Francisco Giants, it seemed that some were overestimating the Nationals and underestimating the Giants (you can perhaps include me in this group, as I predicted that the Nats would sweep the Giants). When this series is looked back at in a few years – if we remember it at all – it is entirely possible that the opposite will occur, and we will underestimate how close this series was. After four games, the Nationals and Giants played 45 innings, scored nine runs apiece and were evenly matched throughout. Yet it was the Giants who walked away not only with a victory but a victory in a mere four games.