A look at how the wise guys bid on free agents in their leagues this week.
Depending on how long you have been a Baseball Prospectus subscriber, welcome or welcome back to the Expert FAAB Review. Every week, I’m going to take a look at the players and the process behind the bidding in LABR AL, LABR mixed, and Tout Wars NL. Bret Sayre and I participate in LABR mixed while I have a team in Tout Wars NL, so I can provide some insights behind the reasoning on the bids. Budgets in all three leagues start at $100.
For week one, the LABR auctions and mixed draft were held earlier than Tout Wars, which influenced the bidding significantly this week. This week, LABR held their bids a day early on Saturday, so the news from the blockbuster Braves/Padres trade did not impact the bidding in that league.
Kicking of this year's series looking at potentially useful players who might be available in your leagues.
Welcome back, to Baseball Prospectus’ weekly free agent advice column. The column ran on Thursdays last year, but is moving to Mondays, in order to try to better serve weekly leagues that set their lineups on Mondays.
The format has changed a little bit, too. Still included is a brief breakdown of a featured hitter and pitcher in standard mixed, deeper mixed, NL-only, and AL-only, but we have added information about the most commonly added and dropped hitters in these formats as well. I’ll be tackling all the mixed league information, while Keith will be handling the only-league duties.
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Mike updates his bid limits based on the latest news from around the league.
Finally, after months of arguing about awards, arguing about Hall of Famers, watching the football playoffs out of sheer boredom, watching the NCAA men’s basketball tournament out of sheer boredom, and arguing about Kris Bryant’s service time, we’re almost there. Three days from now, the Cardinals and Cubs will kick off the regular season in Sunday night primetime, and once again all will be right with the world.
We are close enough to the start of the season that most of the adjustments in this update are on the bottom end guys. For home leagues that are more traditional and auction this weekend (or next weekend), this is the list I want to be able to use with confidence. I’m not looking to make significant changes, so there are only going to be a few players listed below who are above the $10 bid threshold who I will actually write a little blurb about below.
Mike updates his recommended bid limits based on the latest news.
The third update of my fantasy auction values brings another set of dollar values to look at, this time from the expert Tout Wars auctions, which were held this past weekend in New York City. Having a troika of expert auctions to look at gives us even more expert opinions to look at, and gives me yet another opportunity to move my prices up or down based on events at the auctions.
This isn’t the only reason I move my prices up or down, of course. Breaking news can also influence my bid limits for better or worse. This isn’t an exercise in being reactive to every little tidbit of news coming out of Florida or Arizona but rather an opportunity to adjust prices based on larger scale news.
If I manage to win Tout Wars this year, I owe my colleague Jeff Quinton an adult beverage. Or perhaps a tasty submarine sandwich from his favorite convenience store food chain.
If you don’t read Quinton’s work here at Baseball Prospectus (and if you don’t, you’re doing yourself a great disservice), he talks at great length about allowing past results to create the framework for bad decision-making. And while I liked to think I wasn’t doing this when it comes to Tout Wars this is exactly what I have been doing up until this year.
As promised, here are Baseball Prospectus’ rankings for players who play in draft leagues.
This is a list of the top 300 players as ranked by Bret Sayre and Mike Gianella. This list assumes standard 23-man rosters with two catchers, which is why the list is so catcher-heavy at the bottom. If you play in a league with one catcher, adjust accordingly.
Mike updates his recommended bids based on expert auctions and recent news.
Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction. In most cases, I moved my prices up or down based on the results from the CBS and LABR NL and AL-only auctions in late February and early March. I may be all hot and bothered by Anthony Gose, but if his price is sitting in the mid-single digits in AL-only, there is little if any reason that I should be pushing him to $13. On the other hand, the purpose of this exercise isn’t solely to adjust bid limits based on what players went for in LABR. I want to express a preference, not merely follow the herd.
Adjustments below are for AL and NL only in the case of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. Appropriate mixed bid adjustments will be reflected in the table at the bottom of this article.