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Mike Fast |
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April 27, 2011 9:00 am
Spinning Yarn: A Soria Subject |
Do his early-season struggles suggest that Royals closer Joakim Soria's best days lie behind him, or can he succeed with a different style?
Joakim Soria has been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball over the past four years. From 2007 to 2010, he put up a 2.01 ERA with 281 strikeouts against only 70 walks and 182 hits in 255 innings. Over that period, he held the opposition scoreless in 82 percent of the games he entered, and he allowed multiple runs only five percent of the time. For comparison, Mariano Rivera had a 2.05 ERA over those four years, held the opposition scoreless 83 percent of the time, and allowed multiple runs five percent of the time. Even while fighting (and usually failing) to avoid the basement in the AL Central, the Royals could claim a truly elite closer in Soria, the rare All-Star on a perennial cellar dweller.
April 12, 2011 11:50 am
BP Unfiltered: Early PITCHf/x Ballpark Speeds |
A quick check on the PITCHf/x speed calibrations in the first two weeks of 2011
Several people have asked me about the accuracy of the speeds reported by PITCHf/x systems around the major leagues in the early going. I usually wait about a month into the season before I run checks on the calibrations of the PITCHf/x camera systems installed in all the major league ballparks. We need a sample size of 10-20 games before we can be really confident that we are evaluating the cameras and not just the specific set of pitchers that have played in a given stadium or the weather they have been playing in. In my full set of PITCHf/x accuracy checks, I adjust for those things in order to improve the estimates.
April 7, 2011 2:28 pm
BP Unfiltered: In the Beginning... |
Examining season-starting losing streaks
I had been thinking about losing streaks to start a season, and Colin's post this morning sent me researching (and then sent Colin researching as he helped me identify the teams listed in this post.)
March 30, 2011 9:00 am
Spinning Yarn: Do Spring Speeds Matter? |
Mike examines whether velocity changes in March and April can reveal whether the radar gun will be a pitcher's friend or foe throughout the season.
Fastball speed in the major leagues is an important and oft-researched topic. As the 2011 season begins, the trickle of reports on pitchers’ fastball speeds that came out of spring training will turn into a flood of data. Some pitchers will be throwing a little faster than they were last year, while others will have lost a notch on their hard stuff.
March 29, 2011 10:52 pm
BP Unfiltered: Community Playing Time Forecasts |
Tango's community playing time forecasts for 2011
Tom Tango is doing his annual community-sourced playing time forecasts again this year. Go fill out the survey for your favorite team here.
March 20, 2011 11:58 pm
BP Unfiltered: Pineiro Shoulder Tightness |
Leading indicators of the Pineiro shoulder injury in his fastball speed data from March 15
I'd look a lot more prescient if I'd posted this five days ago. The data was there, but I didn't have confidence it. Apparently, I should have.
March 11, 2011 11:15 pm
BP Unfiltered: You Are the Weekend Links |
A summary of some of the best sabermetric articles from the preceding couple weeks
After Neftali Feliz threw three strong innings on Wednesday, Jeff Passan made a convincing argument that Feliz belongs as a starter. It's good stuff from Jeff as always, with interesting quotes sprinkled throughout from Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux and others.
March 2, 2011 9:00 am
Spinning Yarn: How Accurate is PitchTrax? |
Before you yell at the umpire, consider making a few adjustments to your dataset.
After the last two postseasons, most baseball fans are familiar with the strike zone location graphic known as PitchTrax. Here’s an example from Game One of the 2010 American League Championship Series:
February 26, 2011 12:48 pm
BP Unfiltered: Week Links |
Articles from around the saber community this week
Max Marchi investigated the accuracy of the PITCHf/x plate location data. Max used a technique similar to mine, and in fact, I have an article planned soon to go into more detail about my method. Max, however, added a helpful feature, using multilevel modeling.
February 24, 2011 1:50 pm
BP Unfiltered: Did Wainwright Drop His Arm Angle? |
Examining Buster Olney's claim that scouts saw Adam Wainwright's arm angle drop down the stretch in 2010
Earlier today, Buster Olney tweeted, "A couple of scouts say this: they saw Wainwright's arm angle dropping down the stretch last year, a sign of trouble."
February 23, 2011 11:42 am
BP Unfiltered: Do Premier Pitchers Release Within the Zone? |
Evaluating Rick Peterson's claim that premier pitchers release the ball within the horizontal dimensions of the strike zone
At a recent promotional event for the Bloomberg Sports Front Office 2011 professional product, Rick Peterson analyzed the mechanics of John Axford and discussed how he helped Axford move toward the center of the rubber to improve his results in 2010. You can see a video of the Bloomberg event here, courtesy of Kerel Cooper.
February 16, 2011 9:00 am
Spinning Yarn: The Real Strike Zone |
Examining umpire calling and catcher framing leads to thought-provoking questions about the amorphous nature of the strike zone.
Ever since the PITCHf/x system debuted in the 2006 playoffs, people have been interested in what it says about the strike zone that the umpires call.
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Spinning Yarn: Counsell for the Defense
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