Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins
Shallow (30 keepers): NO
Medium (60 keepers): NO
Deep (90 keepers): BORDERLINE
AL-only (60 keepers): YES
Super Deep (200 keepers): YES

Mauer had his most disappointing season in 2011, batting a career-worst .287/.360/.368 (.272 TAv) and receiving just 333 plate appearance while battling knee problems and pneumonia. Fantasy owners were undoubtedly disappointed, and enough question marks surround Mauer that he should be considered carefully in keeper leagues. What should owners do with the 2009 AL MVP?

Robinson Cano | New York Yankees
Shallow (30 keepers): YES
Medium (60 keepers): YES
Deep (90 keepers): YES
NL-only (60 keepers): YES
Super Deep (200 keepers): YES

Last year, Cano was the tenth most valuable player in deep leagues according to PECOTA, registering $31 in auction value. The best part for fantasy owners is that he did so without doing anything unusual.

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The Keeper Reaper returned earlier this month, but the up-the-middle positions were suspiciously absent due to previous commitments by yours truly. However, the up-the-middle Keeper Reaper is finally back, bringing Baseball Prospectus readers a few more names to consider for their keeper leagues.

Jose Reyes | Miami Marlins
Shallow (30 keepers): NO
Medium (60 keepers): YES
Deep (90 keepers): YES
NL-only (60 keepers): YES
Super Deep (200 keepers):  YES

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Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins
Shallow: NO
Medium: BORDERLINE
Deep: YES
NL-only: YES
Super Deep: YES

Again, it is extremely difficult for this author to remain completely objective when it comes to Ramirez, who is perhaps the face of the (soon-to-be Miami) Marlins franchise. Ramirez's performance in 2010 was disconcerting but still well in the range of excellence for shortstops. Ramirez's 2011 performance, on the other hand, was an abject disaster. Not only did he post his worst batting line by far (.243/.333/.379), but he did so while suffering through his most injury-riddled year ever after going through two seasons of creeping minor injuries.

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Yet another week passes with more potential keeper names for The Keeper Reaper to examine. The season is winding down just as the offseason for keeper league owners is heating up. Here again are the format categories that we are considering, for reference:

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431
Medium (12-team mixed, 4 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432
NL-Only (12-team NL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435
AL-Only (12-team AL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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As Rob McQuown mentioned in yesterday's edition of The Keeper Reaper, the Player Forecast Manager has been updated with 2011 numbers and can thus be used for the purposes of elucidating price estimates for players last season. From now on, we will be using these prices in our evaluation of players. Here are those price lists again for each of the formats we will be considering. 

Shallow (10-team mixed, 3 keepers): http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6431 
Medium (12-team mixed, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6430 
Deep (15-team mixed, 6 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6432 
NL-Only (12-team NL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6435 
AL-Only (12-team AL only, 5 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6434 
Super Deep (20-team mixed, 10 keepers) http://pfm.baseballprospectus.com/index.php?cid=6433

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The Keaper Reaper continues this week with more options for your middle infield and catcher positions. As you may have noticed from the last few editions, we have added a “Super Deep” category to satisfy you players with keeper leagues loaded with keeper possibilities. Once again, here are the categories we will be considering.

Shallow: 10-team mixed leagues with 3 keepers (30 total keepers)
Medium: 12-team mixed leagues with 5 keepers (60 total keepers)
Deep: 15-team mixed leagues with 6 keepers (90 total keepers)
AL/NL-only 12-team with 5 keepers (120 effective keepers)
Super Deep: 20-team mixed leagues with 10 keepers (200 total keepers)

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Last week, we discussed the potential collapse of the Atlanta Braves in their attempt to hold on to the National League Wild Card. Well, on one of the greatest nights in baseball history, that potential collapse became a crippling reality for the Braves, as they lost a late-inning heartbreaker to their division rival Philadelphia Phillies. At the risk of picking at a wound that has almost assuredly not begun healing yet, let us take an episodic look through the lens of Win Probability Added and Win Expectancy (provided by Baseball-Reference) and see how the game progressed from the Braves being on the brink of a second straight playoff berth to heading home without a chance at the World Series.

3^rd Inning: Dan Uggla hits a two-run home run, Braves lead 3-1
That home run was the single biggest play on the Braves' side of the docket on Wednesday evening, as it added 22 percent to their chances of winning the game according to WPA. Uggla's home run was fitting of the hitting performance he has put up since July; his batting line of .301/.386/.596 with 24 home runs since July 5 has far surpassed the other Braves batters. His 36 homers for the season represent a career-high total and a fifth straight year with over 30 home runs. Despite the atrocity that was the first half of the season, his magnificent second-half line brought his season back from the brink. After the end of June, it seemed almost a foregone conclusion that Uggla would end up an absolute disappointment in 2011, yet somehow he ended up with 2.3 WARP on the year, which stands as second on the team among position players. With his Wednesday night home run, it appeared that Uggla was going to once again have a hand in leading his team's offense to the postseason.

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As mentioned in yesterday's debut article, the Value Picks crew has transformed into The Keeper Reaper crew for the next two months, though we will be remaining in our classic weekly beats as seen on VP all season. Remember, here are the definitions for the different categories, as set out by BP Fantasy Editor Derek Carty.

Shallow: 10-team mixed leagues with 3 keepers (30 total keepers)
Medium: 12-team mixed leagues with 5 keepers (60 total keepers)
Deep: 15-team mixed leagues with 6 keepers (90 total keepers)
AL/NL-only 12-team with 5 keepers (60 total keepers from one league)

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This week, the crew of Value Picks will be looking back on the year that was in the Value Picks article series, reviewing the good and the bad in terms of our suggestions for fantasy teams. My format will be similar to that of my colleague Rob McQuown, who discussed his outfield selections yesterday. I will simply be breaking down my good and bad choices between first- and second-half selections. Let us take a look at what went right and what went (horribly) wrong in terms of VP suggestions this season. For each player mentioned, I will show his stats while he was on the VP column.

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As sports fans, we all love a good collapse. This may be because inherent to all good collapses are also good comebacks, and everyone loves a good comeback. Combine the nature of these dual concepts with the stakes of making it to the playoffs for a chance at the World Series, and you have an intriguing storyline to follow at the end of an otherwise dull 2011 stretch run. The Atlanta Braves were 8.5 games ahead of their closest Wild Card competitor, the St. Louis Cardinals, at the beginning of September. CoolStandings had them at a 97.8 percent chance of making the playoffs (96.4 percent chance of winning the Wild Card) that day using their “smart” mode assumptions. The Cardinals, on the other hand, had just a 4.3 percent chance of making the postseason. Flash forward to the present time, and the Braves and Cardinals are in drastically different situations. Since September 1, the Braves have gone 8-15 while the Cardinals have gone the opposite direction, posting a 15-7 record. The reversal of fortunes has put the Braves just one game ahead of the Cardinals for the Wild Card lead with only three games remaining.

This drastic change is reflected in the Playoff Odds Report. Through September 24, the Braves had an 88.8 percent chance of moving into the postseason, while the Cardinals were up to 11.2 percent. This change was most drastic during the past week—a week in which the Braves went 2-4 versus the three lower-ranked teams in the NL East while the Cardinals won five of seven games. Atlanta lost almost seven percent on their odds to make the playoffs this past week, while the Cardinals gained eight percentage points in their quest to thwart the previously untouchable Braves.
 

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Thanks to fellow VP author Rob McQuown, the up-the-middle edition of Value Picks will also feature the Value Picks Team Tracker! 

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