Up-the-middle VP graduates it's first player and welcomes Buck and Lowrie into the fold
Even as CBS owners frown on Robert Andino's(ESPN 15%, Yahoo! 20% CBS 17%) starting time at second base, ESPN and Yahoo! owners are intrigued enough to make him too popular to use as a Value Pick in either the mixed-league or AL-only lists. Andino is still who he was last week, but for now Value Picks will move on to players in whom owners are less interested.
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Thole, Pennington, Bloomquist, and Mark Ellis are first on the scene for VP 2012
The first week of Value Picks is all about staying your ground with regards to a lot of players. Even guys in the Value Picks range struggle compared to their expectations in the first week of the season, so it is difficult to judge them based on a sample of just 10 plate appearances. For those rooting around the waiver wires early on for treasures, do not expect the guy who is tearing it up to suddenly be available. A lot of the dumpster-diving goodies available right now are the guys who were among the players reviewed in this offseason's Preseason Value Picks.
Barajas, Mark Ellis, and Ramon Hernandez VP it up this week.
Digging through the last bits of pre-draft information to find the best bargain deals is difficult. A lot of the players we have listed on Value Picks may have simply been slightly undervalued or had a low price overall. But it takes some real digging to talk up the good points of a few players that PECOTA finds “valuable” only in the sense that they have some dollar value tied to a not-too-distant but far more appealing past. Still, at the end of many drafts, one can’t be too picky, and this is what we are going to try and avoid this week on Value Picks.
Buck, Pierzynski, Murphy, and Furcal join the VP ranks this week
Last week, a number of readers pointed out that some of the PECOTA ranks for the Value Picks series did not match up well with the ADP listed based on the name “Value Picks.” It should be noted that we do not necessarily fully agree with PECOTA and do rate players higher or lower depending on their prospects for the 2012 season, including any bonus (or potentially lost) playing time in addition to their skill set. Having said that, this week we bring players whose PECOTA ranks are higher than their respective ADP, with the smallest difference being four ranks.
Suzuki, Thole, Casilla, and Scutaro may prove undervalued in your 2012 fantasy leagues
This week on Value Picks, we look at some names that may have been overlooked because of a recent fall or the fact that they were never highly regarded to begin with. For many of these players, one category provides enough value for them to be worth a look at their respective projected dollar values, despite what their checkered past may show.
Espinosa, Altuve, Alcides, and Kipnis join Preseason VP this week
As we keep rolling along in the 2012 Preseason Value Picks season, the authors of VP will have their eye on injuries, position battles, and all the goings ons of spring training. Unfortunately, not much movement has happened up the middle, as many players are well established both with their real teams and in fantasy. Still, there are some names of interest to discuss.
Desmond, Giavotella, Escobar, and Lucroy are among this week's Value Picks
The purpose of Preseason Value Picks is to focus on names that may be lacking in interest early in the draft season. Even if the names involved here are providing only slight edges in dollar value compared to market value, these small incremental edges could be the difference between a championship and second place. Even in draft season, getting an edge using PECOTA and Value Picks can contribute to the bottom line. Here are some names of interest in the up-the-middle categories.
Roundtable discussion of the pressing questions facing the NL East teams as we approach the start of the season
1) After a disappointing sophomore campaign, what can we expect of Jason Heyward going forward?
MJ: Jason Heyward had an injury-riddled sophomore season in Atlanta, but there is a lot to like about his chances at a rebound campaign in 2012. His offensive line was deflated by a .260 BABIP, but his peripherals were once again stellar. His 11.6 percent walk rate represented a regression from 2010 but cannot be considered poor, and his .162 ISO likewise dropped from the previous year but did not experience a precipitous fall.
Hanley Ramirez, Brandon Phillips, Alexei Ramirez, and Ryan Doumit highlight the first middle infield/catcher Preseason Value Picks column
Value Picks returns this week for another exciting season of Baseball Prospectus Fantasy. As mentioned yesterday by one of my Mike partners-in-crime, Michael Street, we will be taking a look at a few players we believe will see a hefty increase in fantasy value and how they can help you in 2012. In order to determine projected 2012 value, we will be using the Player Forecast Manager backed by the power of PECOTA.
Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero, Yadier Molina, and Sean Rodriguez make the Reaper's cut this week
Carlos Santana | Cleveland Indians
Shallow (30 keepers): BORDERLINE Medium (60 keepers): YES Deep (90 keepers): YES AL-only (60 keepers): YES Super Deep (200 keepers): YES
Santana finished second only to Mike Napoli as the most valuable catcher in 2011. Santana's $19 season is even more impressive considering that he hit only .239 during his campaign; much of his contribution came from his 27 home runs and resulting counting stats. He seems to have a good chance to repeat his career 23 home runs per 600 PA rate, as his HR/FB rate of 15 percent seems reasonable given the scouting reports on him. Given his pedigree, one can only expect to see a bounce back to at least the 2010 version of his BABIP, possibly leading to a .250 to .260 batting average and even greater overall numbers.
Uggla, Andrus, Starlin Castro, and Russell Martin highlight this week's Keeper Reaper
Dan Uggla | Atlanta Braves
Shallow (30 keepers): NO Medium (60 keepers): BORDERLINE
Deep (90 keepers): YES
NL-only (60 keepers): YES
Super Deep (200 keepers): YES
Before the 2011 season, PECOTA projected a $15 value from Dan Uggla. Despite a roller-coaster ride of a season, he ended up pretty much matching that mark in deep leagues. Indeed, when looking at his three-year average before 2011, Uggla pretty much matched his average season last year.