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Keith Woolner 

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03-30

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5

The BP Wayback Machine: Baseball's Hilbert Problems
by
Keith Woolner

02-23

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The BP Wayback Machine: Randomness in Team Standings Predictions
by
Keith Woolner

05-04

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Aim For The Head: Aim For the Front Office
by
Keith Woolner

02-28

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Hope and Faith: How the Boston Red Sox Can Win the World Series
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

06-21

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Aim For The Head: Customized Stat Reports
by
Keith Woolner

04-10

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Aim For The Head: Lengthening Pitch Counts
by
Keith Woolner

03-24

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Aim For The Head: New Relief Categories
by
Keith Woolner

03-23

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2006--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

03-08

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Aim For The Head: Quick-n-Dirty Base-Out Expected Runs Matrix
by
Keith Woolner

03-07

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Why Edgar Allan Poe Couldn't Play Fantasy Baseball
by
Keith Woolner

03-02

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Aim For The Head: Mailbag: Outcomes and Outrages
by
Keith Woolner

02-02

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Aim For The Head: Five More Reasons to Hate the Hold
by
Keith Woolner

01-24

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Aim For The Head: Three True Outcomes, 2005
by
Keith Woolner

03-24

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2005--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

03-04

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Aim For The Head: Three True Outcomes, 2004
by
Keith Woolner

12-02

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Casey's Random Batting Trial
by
Keith Woolner

10-08

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Aim For The Head: Rookies, RBI and Revamped Reliever Reports
by
Keith Woolner

09-13

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Aim For The Head: Support-Neutral Pitching Reports, Revamped
by
Keith Woolner

08-31

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Can Barry Hit .400?
by
Keith Woolner

08-10

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Murderer's Row
by
Chaim Bloom and Keith Woolner

05-26

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Aim For The Head: Hidden Perfect Games Mailbag
by
Keith Woolner

04-27

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Aim For The Head: Hidden Perfect Games
by
Keith Woolner

04-01

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Aim For The Head: Discovering True Clutch Hitters
by
Keith Woolner

02-11

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Aim For The Head: Memory Lane
by
Keith Woolner

02-10

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Baseball's Hilbert Problems
by
Keith Woolner

01-21

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Aim For The Head: Three True Outcomes, 2003
by
Keith Woolner

09-17

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Aim For The Head: Reader Mail, and More New Stat Reports
by
Keith Woolner

08-15

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Aim For The Head: New Stat Reports
by
Keith Woolner

08-13

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Aim For The Head: Pete Rose and the Hall of Fame
by
Keith Woolner

08-04

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Aim For The Head: Supercycles
by
Keith Woolner

05-15

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Aim For The Head: Understanding MLVr
by
Keith Woolner

04-01

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Aim For The Head: A Big Change for OBP
by
Keith Woolner

03-25

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Aim For The Head: Opening Day Starters
by
Keith Woolner

11-22

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The Daily Prospectus: Balanced Lineups Redux
by
Keith Woolner

11-21

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Aim For The Head: Are Balanced Lineups Better?
by
Keith Woolner and Rodger A. Payne

08-30

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Aim For The Head: Quality Starts
by
Keith Woolner

08-20

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Greatest Living Pitcher
by
Keith Woolner and Jonah Keri

07-18

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Aim For The Head: Scoring Early and Often
by
Keith Woolner

07-12

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Aim For The Head: Long Plate Appearances Mailbag
by
Keith Woolner

06-26

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Aim For The Head: More on Lengthy Plate Appearances
by
Keith Woolner

06-26

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Aim For The Head: More on Lengthy Plate Appearances
by
Keith Woolner

06-11

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Aim For The Head: OPS by Length of Plate Appearance
by
Keith Woolner

06-11

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Aim For The Head: OPS by Length of Plate Appearance
by
Keith Woolner

06-06

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Aim For The Head: PAP^3 FAQ
by
Keith Woolner

06-05

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Aim For The Head: PAP^3 FAQ
by
Keith Woolner

05-29

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Aim For The Head: Simulating Catcher's ERA
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

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Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

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Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-21

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Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part One)
by
Keith Woolner

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This week's question comes from Sam Grossman, who writes: What percentage of "quality starts" results in Ws, Ls and NDs for the starting pitcher? What about Ws and Ls for the team? Has this been consistent across time (effect of bullpens, etc.)?

This week's question comes from Sam Grossman, who writes:

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No matter how much the numbers may suggest otherwise, a fan growing up in the 60s may never be persuaded that Barry Bonds deserves to be ranked alongside Hank Aaron. Likewise, a fan growing up in the 90s may never fully grasp the greatness of Stan Musial.

But bringing Aaron and Bonds fans together is child's play compared to settling pitcher debates.

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This week's question comes from Chuck Valenches, who writes: I am the broadcaster for the Pirates' Triple-A club, the Nashville Sounds. We do a promotion where fans are encouraged to write in and "Ask the Sounds".... One question we received we cannot find an answer for. Q. Has there ever been a game in which both teams scored at least one run in every inning, and when was the last time it happened?

This week's question comes from Chuck Valenches, who writes:

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More mailbag.

Judging from the feedback in my inbox, people are still having fun looking at the number of pitches in a plate appearance, so let's answer a few more questions from the mailbag.

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Many people brought up the point that strikeouts can only kick in at three pitches, and walks at four pitches.

The last Aim for the Head, about how offensive production varies with the number of pitches in the plate appearance, generated a lot of questions. Let's dig into the mailbag:

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Ted Frank wrote:

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June 11, 2002 10:01 am

Aim For The Head: OPS by Length of Plate Appearance

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Keith Woolner

Looking at which length of a plate appearance favors the hitter, the pitcher, or neither

This week's question comes from Don Coffin, who asks:

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PAP Q&A

PAP^3 is the name for the new system for measuring pitcher abuse via pitch counts introduced in Baseball Prospectus 2001. Though it shares a similar name and goal with a system previously introduced by Rany Jazayerli, it was developed independently, and replaces the older system.

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Since the chat session, I've received dozens of e-mails asking for additional details. The response from BP readers finally prodded me into finishing some related projects I'd had in progress for a while, which I'll present later in this article.

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May 22, 2002 10:57 am

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)

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Keith Woolner

Before claiming any success for any measure in predicting injury, we must fundamentally recognize that any PAP-style metric will be positively correlated with raw pitch counts. Pitchers with high pitch count totals will tend to have high PAP totals. If a PAP function provides no additional insight into which pitchers will be injured that pitch count totals alone, there is no reason to add the added complexity of a PAP system to our sabermetric arsenal.

 The following article, written by Keith Woolner with Rany Jazayerli, appeared in Baseball Prospectus 2001.

 

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