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Jonah Keri 

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12-14

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The BP Wayback Machine: When Good GMs Go Bad
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Jonah Keri

08-10

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The BP Wayback Machine: Bill Geivett
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Jonah Keri

11-08

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The BP Wayback Machine: When Good GMs Go Bad
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Jonah Keri

06-13

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Prospectus Q&A: Dave Dombrowski
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Jonah Keri

05-24

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Prospectus Q&A: Bill Geivett
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Jonah Keri

05-10

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AL-Kings May Update
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Jonah Keri

05-05

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The Prince Is Dead
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Jonah Keri

04-19

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Prospectus Q&A: Matthew Silverman and Andrew Friedman
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Jonah Keri

03-21

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Who Are the AL-Kings?
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Jonah Keri

03-20

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2006--Setting the Stage
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Jonah Keri

03-09

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LABR of Love, v2006
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Jonah Keri

03-02

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Prospectus Q&A: Lee MacPhail IV
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Jonah Keri

02-06

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Prospectus Q&A: Mark Newman, Part Two
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Jonah Keri

02-01

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Prospectus Q&A: Mark Newman, Part One
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Jonah Keri

01-12

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What is Baseball Between the Numbers?
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Jonah Keri

11-16

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Blast from the Past: Ned Colletti Q&A
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Jonah Keri

11-11

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Blast from the Past: Kim Ng Q&A
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Jonah Keri

10-05

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Blast from the Past: Jon Daniels Q&A
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Jonah Keri

10-05

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox, 10/04/05
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Jonah Keri

09-30

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 9/29/05
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Jonah Keri

09-14

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 9/11/05
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Jonah Keri

09-06

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Prospectus Game of the Week: St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros, 9/4/05
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Jonah Keri

08-30

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays, 8/28/05
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Jonah Keri

08-24

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Kansas City Royals @ Oakland A's, 8/21/05
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Jonah Keri

08-15

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Florida Marlins @ San Francisco Giants, 8/13/05
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Jonah Keri

08-10

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Prospectus Game of the Week: King Felix Arrives
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Jonah Keri

08-03

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, 7/31/05
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Jonah Keri

07-26

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox, 7/24/05
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Jonah Keri

07-19

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7/17/05
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Jonah Keri

07-13

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees, 7/10/05
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Jonah Keri

07-05

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 7/1/05
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Jonah Keri

06-28

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, 6/26/05
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Jonah Keri

06-24

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Prospectus Game of the Week: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 6/22/05
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Jonah Keri

06-08

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6/5/05
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Jonah Keri

05-31

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 5/29/05
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Jonah Keri

05-24

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Prospectus Game of the Week: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals, 5/22/05
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Jonah Keri

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz
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Jonah Keri

05-10

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, 5/8/05
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Jonah Keri

05-03

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 5/2/05
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Jonah Keri

04-25

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 4/24/05
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Jonah Keri

04-19

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Boston Red Sox, 4/17/05
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Jonah Keri

04-13

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Betting in Vegas, Saturday, April 9
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Jonah Keri

04-06

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Prospectus Game of the Week: New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds, 4/4/05
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Jonah Keri

04-01

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2005--Setting the Stage
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Jonah Keri

03-24

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Five Players to Watch in 2005
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Jonah Keri

03-14

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LABR of Love
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Jonah Keri

03-09

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Prospectus Game of the Week: A's-Angels, Sunday March 6
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Jonah Keri

02-23

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Prospectus Q&A: Jon Daniels
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Jonah Keri

10-24

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Prospectus Today: Game 1 Ringer
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Jonah Keri

10-05

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Playoff Prospectus: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Jonah Keri

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May 16, 2005 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz

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Jonah Keri

The architect of two World Championship teams and the game's longest-running divisional dynasty talks about how he does his job.

Schuerholz recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about the transition from scout to general manager, the team's focus on drafting Georgia prep players, the importance of delegating, and more.

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The Braves pulled out a squeaker in a matchup of a veteran starter and a young pitcher making his second major-league start.

Astros CF Willy Taveras 2B Eric Bruntlett 3B Morgan Ensberg LF Mike Lamb 1B Jose Vizcaino RF Jason Lane SS Adam Everett C Raul Chavez P Ezequiel Astacio If I gave you no other information, what would you deduce from that lineup?

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This 8-6 loss to the Blue Jays may end up as the turning point in the Yankees' season.

The Yankees plan to promote Robinson Cano from Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday. They'll then move Cano into the starting role at second base. Left fielder Hideki Matsui will shift to center field. Bernie Williams gets bumped from center to the bench, plus occasional DH duty. The new left fielder? Tony Womack.

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NL Central rivals...err...acquaintances collide as the Pirates take on the Cubs in the Prospectus Game of the Week.

Of course there was more at stake Sunday than two teams fighting to see who finishes a distant second behind the Cardinals. The Pirates were taking the worst offense in the league into the game; averaging just three runs a contest, their futility offered the allure of plastic surgery gone horribly wrong (coming up next...on Fox!). Their lineup features more 100-somethings than a Matlock convention.

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An exciting and unusual pitching matchup highlights this week's tilt, as AL East (sort of) rivals collide.

And what better opponent to follow than the Boston Red Sox. I don't know if you know this, but the Sox won the World Series last year. It's true, you can look it up!

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April 13, 2005 12:00 am

Prospectus Game of the Week: Betting in Vegas, Saturday, April 9

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Jonah Keri

Jonah Keri takes Game of the Week on the road to Las Vegas, where he learns a few hard lessons about betting on baseball.

As usual, you came through. I received a flood of suggestions for games to bet on Saturday. They included great pitching match-ups (Ben Sheets/Carlos Zambrano), starter battles that the Vegas line might gauge incorrectly (Kevin Gregg/Jose Lima) and games pitting good starters for bad teams against bad starters for good teams (Livan Hernandez vs....Scuffy Moehler!).

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Game of the Week kicks off the regular season with a look at the traditional Opening Day game in Cincinnati, as the Reds battle the Mets.

Barely a minute into the broadcast, Morgan is in playoff form. First he takes the Reds to task for batting Ken Griffey Jr. second, saying he should be a middle-of-the-order hitter with his ability. OK, fine. And then: "Griffey's due for some good luck...I think you'll see Griffey hit 40 or 50 home runs this year." Uh, the same guy who tears his hamstrings if he so much as contemplates the works of Kant, the same Griffey who hit 41 homers...in the last three years combined? If you squint really hard, you can see a fruit basket by Morgan's side in the press box, with the inscription: "The check's in the mail, Your Old Pal, Ken Griffey, Sr."

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April 1, 2005 12:00 am

2005--Setting the Stage

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Jonah Keri

The Florida Marlins are headed back to the World Series. Jonah Keri tells you how and why.

Don't let that shock you. Let that free you. Let that liberate you. In a National League that features nothing close to a dominant team, this promises to be a year of wackiness.

To understand why the Marlins will win the National League pennant, take a look at their top players. Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell and Carlos Delgado in the lineup. Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis in the rotation. No team in the National League sports such trios both in the heart of the batting order and at the top of the starting rotation. It's that star power that's going to win the league for the Fish.

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Jonah Keri checks in on five breakout players to watch, via the New York Sun.

Still, one area where we do particularly well is in forecasting breakout players. Baseball Prospectus's projection system, PECOTA, combines weighted three-year statistical averages of player performance with such biographical information as age, height, and weight to produce a range of likely outcomes for more than 1,500 major league and minor league players every year. Last year's success stories included Cincinnati's Wily Mo Pena and Adam Dunn, and Minnesota's Johan Santana.

Now we're back for another round, combining PECOTA's forecasts with a dash of common sense. In compiling this list of five breakout players to watch for in 2005, we incorporated players ranging from several categories. Some are established major leaguers ready to take the next step toward stardom. Others are younger players, getting their first shot at a full year of starting duty. Still others are complementary players, lesser-known but skilled commodities ready to step in and do the dirty work.

Read the full article...

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March 14, 2005 12:00 am

LABR of Love

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Jonah Keri

Jonah Keri recounts how BP's Player Forecast Manager matched up against 12 wily rivals at the recent NL LABR experts fantasy baseball draft.

Hosted by Sports Weekly's John Hunt, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality brings together some of the brightest and nicest guys in the fantasy baseball biz. It also includes several "regular guys," as LABR calls them--home league heroes invited to join the table, all smart as a whip, many of whom could recite more words from the latest edition of BP than I can. Baseball Prospectus has been a more recent invitee to the dance; it took six months of counseling before we could accept the concept of wins and RBI not being abominations on the world of baseball statistics. Since then, it's been a fun annual experience.

This would be my second LABR experience. Heading into last year's draft, I planned to follow much the same strategy I did in the 2003 Tout Wars National League draft: use the PECOTA Player Forecast Manager as a guide, and look for value picks where bidding stopped several dollars short of the PFM's predicted dollar value. The strategy worked better in 2003--when Nate Silver, Will Carroll and I teamed to finish second--than it did in '04--when I finished a decent but uninspiring fifth out of 13 teams. The difference lay mostly in execution: while the plan was the same both years, the in-draft dynamics fell in such a way that 2003 offered more bargains and fewer misses than my 2004 LABR team. (I also did a better job of landing quality free agents off the wire in '03, bolstering the roster throughout the year).

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March 9, 2005 12:00 am

Prospectus Game of the Week: A's-Angels, Sunday March 6

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Jonah Keri

Jonah Keri debuts his new Prospectus Game of the Week column with a trip to Arizona for an A's-Angels spring training tilt.

Now, I'm trying something new. This marks the debut of Prospectus Game of the Week. Starting the first week of the regular season and running through to season's end, I'll be highlighting one game a week. Big pitching match-ups, hot-button topics and random asides will come together to reveal the game behind the game, the bigger stakes beyond a single win or loss.

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February 23, 2005 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Jon Daniels

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Jonah Keri

Prospectus Q&A returns, as Jonah Keri talks to Rangers Assistant General Manager Jon Daniels about the new blood in major league front offices, the challenges of playing in a big hitter's park, and more.

After gaining experience working on draft history, park effects and other studies, the Rangers hired him as Assistant Baseball Operations Director in 2002. Promoted to Director of Baseball Operations when Dan O'Brien left the Rangers to take the Reds' General Manager job, Daniels then ascended to the role of Assistant General Manager last summer, solidifying his status as right-hand man to Rangers GM John Hart. Now one of the youngest AGMs in the game, Daniels' duties include contract negotiations and an array of broader strategic decisions. Daniels recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about the new blood in major league front offices, the challenges of playing in a big hitter's park, and more.

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