While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Do GMs sometimes act in their own interests instead of their teams'? Jonah explored the possibility in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as an "Avoiding Dissonance" column on April 25, 2002.
 

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While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

The Colorado Rockies' front office was recently restructured to give Dan O'Dowd's longtime assistant Bill Geivett some of O'Dowd's former duties. Jonah Keri talked to Geivett for BP in the interview reprinted below, which was originally published as a Prospectus Q&A column on May 24, 2006.

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While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

As Dan Duquette prepares to take on a clean-up operation in Baltimore, revisit Jonah's take on his job performance in his previous stints as a GM, which originally ran on April 25, 2002.
 

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Dombrowski made the best of suboptimal situations in both Montreal and South Florida, twice producing winning teams under difficult circumstances. But the Detroit Tigers seemed to be an even tougher task when Dombrowski took over. When owner Mike Ilitch hired Dombrowski as GM in the fall of 2001, the Tigers were coming off eight straight losing seasons. Lacking a strong farm system or star-level major league talent, many speculated that things could get worse before they got better in Detroit. Four more losing seasons, including the historically awful 43-119 season in 2003, proved those dire predictions true. But thanks to some strong drafting, a fruitful player development system and some well-timed trades and signings, the Tigers have come roaring back in 2006. More than one-third of the way through the season, Detroit sports the best record in MLB. Dombrowski recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about the “r” word (rebuilding), the hidden value found in the Rule 5 draft, and tips on how to make the best of a bad situation.

Bill Geivett played several seasons in the Angels' minor league system before hanging up his cleats. He quickly caught on with the Yankees as an area scout. Geivett has logged multiple stops since then. He served as farm director for the Expos; he went to Tampa Bay before the Rays ever took the field; he spent two years with the Dodgers, ascending to the role of Assistant General Manager. Geivett joined the Rockies after the 2000 season. His tenure in Colorado started on the major league scouting side. After two years he took over minor league operations. For the last two years Geivett has held the title of Assistant General Manager, Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Rockies.

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Scoresheet's premise is simple: Instead of using rotisserie baseball rules, Scoresheet forces combatants to construct a full, balanced roster, just like any major league team not named the Royals would. That means a strong starting nine, a full five-man rotation, deep bullpen and useful bench. Scoresheet then runs simulations of games every week, with the game results based on what the fielded players did in real life that week. There's a 162-game regular season, followed by the playoffs. The winner of AL-Kings is the one that wins the World Series. The prize is $1,000 donated to the charity of his choice, courtesy of BP.

Sounds simple in theory. But in practice, AL-Kings has been, in many ways, more about the how-tos on handling roster attrition than anything else. With 12 teams drafting, no payroll restrictions tilting talent one way or another and 12 capable GMs at the helm, building a strong roster top-to-bottom proved a tough task. In many ways, AL-Kings is Under The Knife, writ large: The winner of the league might very well be the team that best manages to avoid--and make up for--the injuries that plague every major league team.

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But compare Albert Pujols’ performance in the first five years of his career to those of MLB’s other greats, and the name Prince starts to look inadequate. By the numbers, Pujols looks more like a king.

Pujols’ first five seasons rank among the top 10 performances in major league history by just about every advanced metric possible. BP’s Equivalent Average stat lets us compare hitters across all eras by adjusting for league and park effects and quality of competition. The result is then boiled down to a number that runs along the same scale as batting average. If a hitter nets a .350 EqA, he’s a superstar. If he puts up a .175, he shouldn't be in the big leagues.

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Andrew Friedman ascended to the role of Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Rays this off-season. He previously spent two years as Director of Baseball Development, where he oversaw all aspects of baseball operations and led the negotiations for Carl Crawford's long-term contract. Friedman spent two years as a financial analyst for Bear, Stearns and three years as an associate for the private equity firm MidMark Capital before joining the Rays. Silverman and Friedman recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about their handling of the Rays' top prospects, the challenges of generating fan interest in Tampa, and the advantages of a multi-tiered front office structure.

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Even the most die-hard Rotisserie player would stop short of calling the game a perfect proxy for the real thing, though. Roto's focus on statistics such as RBI, stolen bases, saves and wins are enough to make any card-carrying stathead scurry for the soothing comfort of his VORP tables. Luckily there are games that do a better job of replicating real-life baseball. Strat-O-Matic incorporates such elements as defense and strategic decisions (taking the extra base, bunting, hit-and-run plays) into its game. Strat does fall short in one element though, as it relies on the previous season's stats to generate the action. "What, Derrek Lee hit another three-run homer? Shocking!"

Scoresheet Baseball, on the other hand, combines realistic game results with current-year statistics. If Eric Chavez goes 11-for-24 in a given week, you get the benefit of that offensive outburst and Chavez's Gold Glove defense during the corresponding week on the Scoresheet schedule. Scoresheet has a few flaws too. It doesn't account for park effects for one, making Rockies hitters and Nationals pitchers appear more valuable than they are in reality. Still, it's a challenging, fun-to-play game that's a departure from traditional rotoball.

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Ladies and gentlemen, brace yourselves. We're about to peer into our crystal ball and predict the 2006 outcome for…the fifth starter on a last-place team. Ah, but this isn't just any old fifth starter on a last-place team. This is the greatest fifth starter in major league history and the most captivating player in the game today.

Few professional athletes--well, few male professional athletes--have ever received as much attention at so young an age as has Felix Hernandez. When Hernandez takes the mound for his first start of the season on April 7, he'll do so a day before his 20th birthday. No one expects anything less than complete dominance, from the first time he toes the rubber.

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I learned this the hard way at last year's League of Alternative Baseball Reality draft, NL version. The 2005 draft marked the third time I used PECOTA to guide my drafting in an experts' fantasy league, following stints in the 2003 Tout Wars and 2004 LABR National League drafts. Last year was notable for three huge draft-table whiffs: D'Angelo Jimenez for $17, Endy Chavez at $11 and Cristian Guzman at $9. All three of those picks came at values that were actually below the dollar figures spit out by the Player Forecast Manager, a fantasy-specific drafting system that runs off the projections generated by BP's PECOTA projection system.

The PFM (newly updated today) takes PECOTA's raw output and adjusts for an array of factors, from position scarcity to category scarcity (saves and steals especially) to many others. But as with any projection system, it pays to inject some common sense into the mix as well. Jimenez showed strong results at the plate heading into the 2005 season, so that flop was tougher to predict. Chavez and Guzman simply stink, no matter how you look at them. Many of the major leagues' top basestealers bring little more than speed to the table. But as long as they show at least one other skill--doubles power, on-base ability, a knack for finding incriminating photos of their manager--they're going to keep their jobs, bat near the top of the lineup and generate plenty of steals and runs scored. Players like Chavez or Guzman are so limited in their talents that even the most speed-obsessed manager is going to yank them from the lineup eventually if they continue to dwell below replacement level. So, lesson learned. Don't draft terrible players.

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Lee IV has worked in the Orioles, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins and Montreal Expos organizations. He now holds the title of Director, Baseball Administration/Special Assignment Scout for the Washington Nationals. MacPhail recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about his family legacy, the challenges of working under uncertain conditions with the Expos and Nats and other topics.

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