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Jon Shepherd 

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Examining an oft-cited method of predicting regular-season success from spring training stats.

It’s only natural to seek meaning in spring training statistics. By the time spring games roll around, we’re baseball-starved enough to believe anything. We’re also preparing for fantasy drafts, which means we’re always on the lookout for any info that could give us an edge. And contrary to the popular stathead saying, spring training stats aren’t actually meaningless—they’re just less meaningful, compared to a same-sized sample of big-league performance. Any change in a player’s performance should produce a corresponding (albeit small) change in our projection for that player. The more extreme that change in performance is, and the larger the sample, the more that projection shifts.

The most commonly cited method for assessing spring training statistics was proposed and popularized by John Dewan, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions. Dewan has devoted most of his analytical efforts to quantifying fielding, but he tackles other statistical topics in his “Stat of the Week” series at the website of publisher Acta Sports. Since at least 2005, Dewan has published an annual list of players whom he thinks stand a good chance to break out in the upcoming season, based on their spring training stats.

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