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Jeffrey A. Friedman 

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Are you overly optimistic about your favorite team?

Sam Miller and I recently interviewed 28 Baseball Prospectus 2014 authors as part of the Effectively Wild season preview podcast series. At the end of each episode, we asked our guest to predict the 2014 win total for the team we’d just talked about. Listener Jeffrey A. Friedman sent us the following unsolicited submission about bias in these predicted win totals, which we decided to publish with his permission. Beware of bias in your own predictions! —Ben Lindbergh

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