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Jeff Quinton 

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05-27

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1

The Quinton: What Buyers Sell in Keeper Leagues
by
Jeff Quinton

05-20

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Staying Afloat in a Sea of Fluctuations
by
Jeff Quinton

05-15

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1

The Quinton: Strategy and Process: A Pseudo Mailbag
by
Jeff Quinton

05-13

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2

The Quinton: Please Spend Your FAAB
by
Jeff Quinton

05-11

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9

Free Agent Watch: Week Six
by
Keith Cromer and Jeff Quinton

05-01

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3

The Quinton: The In-Season Advocacy Effect and Managing Multiple Leagues
by
Jeff Quinton

04-20

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4

Tools of Ignorance: The San Diego Hedgehogs?
by
Jeff Quinton

04-17

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0

The Quinton: Early-Season Trades: Pros and Cons
by
Jeff Quinton

04-16

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6

Transaction Analysis: Say Yas
by
R.J. Anderson, Christopher Crawford and Jeff Quinton

04-15

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9

The Quinton: Three Auction Takeaways
by
Jeff Quinton

04-08

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0

Tools of Ignorance: Pitfalls of the Arb-Year Buyout
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

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0

My Model Portfolio: Framing Decisions Around Value
by
Jeff Quinton

03-26

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7

The Quinton: Draft Setting and the Wisdom of our Competition
by
Jeff Quinton

03-20

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9

Every Team's Moneyball: New York Yankees: Two Low-Budget(ish) Strategies
by
Jeff Quinton

03-19

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5

The Quinton: Depth, Insurance, and Filling Out a Roster
by
Jeff Quinton

03-17

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0

BP Unfiltered: Dreams of Fields
by
Jeff Quinton

03-12

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5

The Quinton: Choice Architecture and Trade Talks
by
Jeff Quinton

03-04

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0

Player Profile: David Robertson
by
Jeff Quinton

03-02

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6

The Quinton: Market Corrections and Undervaluing Closers
by
Jeff Quinton

02-25

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3

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy
by
Jeff Quinton

02-20

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17

Tools of Ignorance: How are the Phillies Framing the Cole Hamels Decision?
by
Jeff Quinton

02-18

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4

The Quinton: The Players We Overlook and the Ambiguity Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

02-11

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18

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders (1-40)
by
Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

02-10

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19

Tools of Ignorance: How the Padres Won the Offseason
by
Jeff Quinton

02-09

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11

The Quinton: Diversification, Risk, and a Portfolio of Baseball Players
by
Jeff Quinton

02-05

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0

BP Unfiltered: On Baseball's New Marketing Agency And Appealing to the Masses
by
Jeff Quinton

02-05

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1

Player Profile: Troy Tulowitzki
by
Jeff Quinton

02-02

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5

The Quinton: Perceived Inflation and Nominating With Intention
by
Jeff Quinton

01-30

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2

Player Profile: Adrian Beltre
by
Jeff Quinton

01-30

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6

Transaction Analysis: Big Giant Snider
by
R.J. Anderson, Tucker Blair and Jeff Quinton

01-28

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0

The Quinton: Third Base and Avoiding Result-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

01-19

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0

The Quinton: Middle Infielders, Expectations, and Weaknesses
by
Jeff Quinton

01-14

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3

Player Profile: Mike Napoli
by
Jeff Quinton

01-12

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8

The Quinton: The Value of Having Options
by
Jeff Quinton

01-08

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3

Transaction Analysis: Yankees Fancy Drew
by
R.J. Anderson and Jeff Quinton

01-05

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6

The Quinton: Zagging: Catchers and an Opportunitistic Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

12-30

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Consuming the Positional Series
by
Jeff Quinton

12-18

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3

Fantasy Team Preview: San Francisco Giants
by
Jeff Quinton

12-15

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9

Prospectus Feature: The Surprising Math Teams Use to Value a Compensation Pick
by
Jeff Quinton

12-05

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12

Fantasy Team Preview: Chicago Cubs
by
Jeff Quinton

11-25

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and Responding to the Default Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

11-20

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and the Default Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

11-07

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0

Fantasy Team Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
by
Jeff Quinton

10-24

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Fantasy Freestyle: Projection Season and the Recency Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

10-16

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Jon Jay
by
Jeff Quinton

10-10

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11

Transaction Analysis: Baltimore Hearts Hardy
by
Jeff Quinton

10-04

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4

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Recap: Orioles 7, Tigers 6
by
Jeff Quinton

10-03

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7

Playoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game Previews
by
Sahadev Sharma, Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella, Doug Thorburn and J.P. Breen

10-02

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Trades and the Importance of Hustle
by
Jeff Quinton

09-25

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Fantasy Freestyle: Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

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March 26, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Draft Setting and the Wisdom of our Competition

7

Jeff Quinton

How being conscious of others' opinions can impact what you do on draft day.

In scouring the strategy and decision-making side of fantasy baseball for potential areas of improvement, we have now arrived in the land of draft setting. In making this definition up in order to fit the points I am trying to make in the rest of the article, we can break draft setting into two parts: draft medium (in-person or online) and competition (familiars or strangers). The draft setting matters, particularly how we view and know our competition, because the way in which we perceive our decisions will be perceived by others will often influence the decisions we make. As we have mentioned about other decisions, these factors should not matter when we make decisions in an auction or draft, but, alas, they do.

This is not something that only happens to your average fantasy baseball participant, such as me, this is something that happens to the experts too. In discussing the results of his NL Tout auction, Mike Gianella messaged me the following:

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Brian Cashman plays the hand forced on him by ownership.

Every day until Opening Day, Baseball Prospectus authors will preview two teams—one from the AL, one from the NL—identifying strategies those teams employ to gain an advantage. Today: the front offices of New York (Yankees), New York (Mets).

Previous team previews: Giants | Royals | Dodgers | Rays | Padres | Astros | Rockies | Athletics



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March 19, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Depth, Insurance, and Filling Out a Roster

5

Jeff Quinton

How our inherent biases might affect the fantasy backups we choose.

With the positional series now over (may its soul find peace in the afterlife and archives), we will now write about other things. More specifically, we should and will discuss the back end of drafts and auctions. While the decisions we make at these junctures will not be the most impactful decisions we make in a draft/auction, they are decisions in which we often leave value on the table. When it comes to choosing final roster spots, particularly bench players, we often hear about drafting/buying “insurance for our closer” or “risky Player X insurance,” which makes sense (at first blush) regarding the imperfection of our ability to forecast player production. The issue is that what we choose to insure is not always derived from (good) reason. Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes in Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets,

“As a derivatives trader I noticed that people do not like to insure against something abstract; the risk that merits their attention is always something vivid.” (Pg. 37)

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A love story of one BP author and one career minor leaguer.

In the rare case you might not be familiar with the athlete, Matt Fields is on the left:

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March 12, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Choice Architecture and Trade Talks

5

Jeff Quinton

Applying this behavioral economics concept to fantasy baseball.

As players get injured and as auctions, drafts, and keeper deadlines approach, this tends to be a busy trade time for many a keeper league. We have talked about framing team needs, looking for trade partners, and honing negotiation tactics, but today we are going to look at how we can optimally structure our trade offers. Why? Because the way we engage in trade talk and the way we structure our trade offers impact how successful we are at (i) making trades and (ii) getting the most out of trades. What follows is a slide from behavioral economics class on choice:

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March 4, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: David Robertson

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at what's in store for the closer, who left the Bronx for the South Side of Chicago.

Player Background

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March 2, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Market Corrections and Undervaluing Closers

6

Jeff Quinton

Why some fantasy players might have taken the "don't pay for saves" mantra too far.

Like many, I have been dreading relief pitcher week. I would call closers my fantasy baseball Achilles heel, but that would be understating my other flaws. For years now, we have heard experts say, “Don’t pay for saves.” What these experts really meant by this sentiment is either (i) that we should not overpay for saves or (ii) that the (fantasy baseball) market was overvaluing saves.

While closers are still overvalued in some leagues, the closer market has corrected itself in many. Additionally, there appears to be some overcorrection happening—some owners end up avoiding saves all together. This can be a profitable strategy if the market is overvaluing saves, but it can also be a decision-making crutch for avoiding the most volatile position. If it is the latter (as it was for me last season), then we are likely to miss out on good values in the closer market and unnecessarily handicap our teams. While the majority of fantasy baseball participants are not undervaluing saves, this article is for those, like me, who have done so and are at risk of doing so in the future. We will take a look at how we came to do so and how we can hopefully overcome this weakness.

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February 25, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

3

Jeff Quinton

While he lacks the upside of other pitchers with similar ADPs, Kennedy's consistency and home park could make him a bargain.

Player Background

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Thinking about how the Phillies think about trading Cole Hamels.

To answer the question in the title, I do not know how the Phillies are framing the decision to trade Cole Hamels. We do know, however, how people frame decisions when facing risk and uncertainty—both of which the Phillies face with Hamels. Our risk-averse nature often drives the way we make decisions, but the way we frame decisions and consequent risk can often lead us to very different decision outcomes. Depending on how the Phillies frame their decision, both trading him now (ensure they get something back) or waiting for an elite return (ensure that they “get this one right”) can be viewed as the risk-averse decision. The hope (for Phillies fans) is that the Phillies are framing the decision simply as trying to maximize their return while taking all risks into account. That said, we will take a look at the ways people err when facing similar decisions and whether the Phillies are (or appear to be) falling into similar decision-making traps.

The Problem with Fuzzy Probabilities
Before we go any further it should be noted that we are starting with a premise that Cole Hamels must be traded by the Phillies eventually. An analyst or two out there might disagree with this premise, but given the Phillies' place in the competitive landscape, Hamels is worth less to them than to almost any other team in major-league baseball. So, given this starting point, questions like: How valuable will Cole Hamels be over the next four years? How valuable will the prospects get in return be? are irrelevant. All that matters is whether the Phillies can get a better return for Hamels in the future (spring training, offseason, etc.) than they can get for him now; and whether that better return is worth the risk inherent in waiting.


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February 18, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: The Players We Overlook and the Ambiguity Effect

4

Jeff Quinton

Why our risk-averse nature sometimes leads us to scan past players we should be selecting.

Every year I look back on the season and say, “How did I miss on that guy?” Unfortunately, I always end up asking this question about multiple players after each season. I am going to venture a guess that I am not alone in experiencing this. That said, it is often a good thing that we miss on some out of nowhere players; to quote Kathryn Schulz’s excellent Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin Error, “being wrong is often a side effect of a system that is functioning exactly right.” In other words, when dealing with an uncertain future, good process can still lead to misses—to bad results. Missing on Danny Santana posting a .405 BABIP or Michael Brantley posting a HR:FB rate nearly double his previous career high (by “miss,” we mean not paying a draft or auction day price for these breakouts) is actually a positive for our process rather than a knock against it. (Note: If we missed for predictable reasons, then that would be a knock on our process.)

However, these misses—the bad beats, the good process-bad outcomes—are not the misses I was talking about earlier. Rather, I was talking about the misses that should have been avoided. More specifically, the ambiguity effect causes us to miss out on players each year. Below we will take a look at the ambiguity effect, its different forms, and some strategies to battle it.

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February 11, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders (1-40)

18

Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

The first half of the list, stacking up the players at this position between now and the end of the 2017 season.

Previous articles in this series:

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San Diego's big offseason appeared to follow a strategy long prescribed for the amateur draft: Prioritize talent, not need.

Not sure if you have heard or not, but the Padres have gone from being incredibly boring to intriguing and, more importantly, playoff contenders. How did they do it? They acquired better players. How did they acquire better players? Through trades (mostly) and free agent signings (less-ly). The exciting part is that San Diego was able to do so without completely wiping out their farm system (holding onto their three top prospects in Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, and Matt Wisler as well as Rymer Liriano) and without spending a ton of cash. Put differently, the Padres paid a price to become relevant, but it was a price far less than anyone would have guessed given the pieces they acquired.

So how were the Padres—a team that was thought to be relatively void of playoff-level talent—able to position themselves as playoff contenders at such a seemingly low price? They did so by being opportunistic and leveraging depth, which they were able to do by finding motivated sellers and acquiring value instead of focusing on need.

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