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Jeff Quinton 

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08-18

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10

Tools of Ignorance: The Trades Remain the Same
by
Jeff Quinton

08-15

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11

Tools of Ignorance: Why Was Chapman So Expensive?
by
Jeff Quinton

08-02

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9

Transaction Analysis: The Penny-Pinching Pirates Pitching Parade
by
Jeff Quinton, Ben Carsley, Joshua Howsam, Gideon Turk, Craig Goldstein, Adam McInturff, Jeffrey Paternostro and Bryan Grosnick

07-30

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0

Transaction Analysis: Marlins Gonna Marlins
by
Adam McInturff, Dustin Palmateer, Steve Givarz, Jeff Quinton and Jeffrey Paternostro

07-29

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0

The Quinton: Searching for Trade Deadline Targets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-20

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The Quinton: Is There a Best Day (of the Week) to Trade?
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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Player Profile: Matt Kemp
by
Jeff Quinton

07-01

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The Quinton: Trading With or As the Leader
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

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Tools of Ignorance: Is Now the Time to Sell?
by
Jeff Quinton

06-24

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Player Profile: Zach Davies
by
Jeff Quinton

06-17

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0

The Quinton: In-Season Solutions, Missed
by
Jeff Quinton

06-08

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Mark Trumbo and Being Wrong
by
Jeff Quinton

06-06

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0

Transaction Analysis: Small Trade James
by
James Fegan, Jeff Quinton, Christopher Crawford and Bryan Grosnick

05-26

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13

Tools of Ignorance: The Team-Mandated Player Opt-Out
by
Jeff Quinton

05-23

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2

The Quinton: Trades, Supply Chains, and Lead Times
by
Jeff Quinton

05-12

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0

The Quinton: The Cost of a Trade
by
Jeff Quinton

05-04

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Tools of Ignorance: The Somewhat Dubious Outlook For the Next Generation of Rebuilds
by
Jeff Quinton

04-22

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1

Free Agent Watch: Week Four
by
J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

04-21

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1

The Quinton: The Big Trade, Untouchables, and Storytelling
by
Jeff Quinton

04-12

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0

The Quinton: Bold Predictions and Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-08

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7

Free Agent Watch: Week One
by
J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

04-05

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10

The Quinton: Keeper-League Auction Takeaways
by
Jeff Quinton

04-02

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0

TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 67: Avocados
by
George Bissell, Ben Carsley, Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

04-01

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0

My Model Portfolio: Punting Saves
by
Jeff Quinton

03-22

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5

The Quinton: Beating the Wisdom of the Crowd
by
Jeff Quinton

03-14

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Flags Fly Forever Podcast: Ep. 82: Draft Strategy with Jeff Quinton
by
George Bissell and Jeff Quinton

03-14

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4

The Quinton: On Paying for Saves
by
Jeff Quinton

03-04

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5

Tools of Ignorance: The Dodgers' Breakable Rotation
by
Jeff Quinton

02-29

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1

The Quinton: Partaking in Both Auctions and Drafts
by
Jeff Quinton

02-23

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1

TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 64: The BP Annual Drinking Game
by
George Bissell, Ben Carsley, Craig Goldstein, Bret Sayre, Meg Rowley, Matt Sussman and Jeff Quinton

02-22

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0

The Quinton: The Biggest Advantage of Mock Drafts
by
Jeff Quinton

02-19

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10

The Quinton: On Reaching
by
Jeff Quinton

02-08

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2

The Quinton: Shortstops, Uncertainty, and Scarcity
by
Jeff Quinton

02-08

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7

Tools of Ignorance: Forget It, Jake
by
Jeff Quinton

02-01

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2

The Quinton: Third Base, Year-to-Year Shifts, and Reference Points
by
Jeff Quinton

01-27

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5

The Quinton: Trades That Aren't Being Made
by
Jeff Quinton

01-18

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2

The Quinton: The Representativeness Heuristic and Baseball Positions
by
Jeff Quinton

01-13

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The Quinton: Strategy Planning, Sub-Strategies, and Catcher Strategies
by
Jeff Quinton

01-04

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6

The Quinton: Two New Year's Resolutions
by
Jeff Quinton

12-30

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1

Best of BP 2015: Winning By Design
by
Jeff Quinton

12-28

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11

Tools of Ignorance: Behavioral Economics and the Rise of the Player Opt-Out
by
Jeff Quinton

12-18

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1

The Quinton: Valuing Disappointing Players
by
Jeff Quinton

12-09

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2

Transaction Analysis: Cubs Implement Flextime
by
Jeff Quinton, Sahadev Sharma and J.P. Breen

12-08

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5

Transaction Analysis: Sorry We Broke Up, Soria Missed You
by
R.J. Anderson, Sahadev Sharma, Rian Watt and Jeff Quinton

12-07

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0

The Quinton: Negotiating the Trade Process
by
Jeff Quinton

11-30

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The Quinton: Obstacles to Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

11-12

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5

Winning By Design
by
Jeff Quinton

11-11

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1

Winning By Design
by
Jeff Quinton

11-10

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5

Winning By Design
by
Jeff Quinton

11-02

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2

BP Unfiltered: Why The Broadcasters Hated Your Team
by
Jeff Quinton

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Chicago takes James Shields off San Diego's hands for a pair of prospects.

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Within an unusual and thought-provoking trend, there is an extremely unusual and extremely thought-provoking subtrend.

We, as an internet, have thoroughly discussed the player opt-out, but oversaturation and (a lack of) timeliness have never stopped us before here at Tools of Ignorance and they will not stop us now. In December, at the beginning of the height of player opt-out-mania, I wrote about why this contract structure might have increased in popularity. I hypothesized, among other things, that players might be valuing the opt-out and flexibility it brings more than teams valued it, or that players were just flat out overvaluing the opt-out, or both. It felt right; it felt like it made sense.

Then word came out that David Price did not want a player option, but rather that Dave Dombrowski insisted on including one. The future, it turns out, can be a real know-it-all.

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: Trades, Supply Chains, and Lead Times

2

Jeff Quinton

Considering the sequence of a fantasy trade, from research to completion, can help us to avoid missing out on the best deals.

Trades are coming. We have discussed different types of trades, the importance of trades, and a lot of other things to do with trades. We have taken a look at the actual mechanics of trades here and there (we have discussed trading with different negotiation types, how we can use choice architecture when crafting trades, and so on), but we often overlook the supply chain of a trade. If, as the internet states, supply chain is “the sequence of processes involved in the production and distribution of a commodity,” then the supply chain of a fantasy baseball trade is the sequence of processes involved from the time a trade is conceptualized to the time it is agreed upon or disbanded.

The important (for this conversation) thing about supply chain, whether that of a fantasy baseball trade or that of a new-product launch, is that it is easy to overlook. It is easy to assume everything will just work out so long as we have the right idea and the right plan. This assumption, though, causes product launches to be delayed or less profitable, and it causes us to miss out on beneficial trades. Because we want to make as many beneficial trades as possible, we do not want to make this assumption—we do not want to overlook the supply chain of our trades. Maybe you do not overlook the supply chain of your trades. If so, well done. If not, or if you want to take read about the concept, then please find the below discussion around a critical concept of supply chain: lead time.

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May 12, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: The Cost of a Trade

0

Jeff Quinton

Identifying the two costs associated with each fantasy trade, and the best ways to ensure you make the optimal move.

The real baseball teams have been playing for over a month and, consequently, so too have our fantasy baseball teams. As always happens, our perfectly planned team has proven itself to be imperfect. Maybe our hitters are underperforming, maybe are starting pitchers have fallen victim to injury, maybe our closers are no longer closers. It happens. The lucky (and/or skilled) among us have been able to address these weaknesses via the waiver wire or early season trade, but most of are or will be in the position of looking to the trade market for an upgrade.

Groundbreaking stuff, I know. But a big thing we see in a lot of trades or trade discussions is improper framing of the decision being made. The most pervasive error in this regard is to simply look at what our team is missing and then trade from a strength or redundancy to improve that weakness. This is not inherently a mistake and this process might lead to optimal decision-making and strategy, but there are other factors we need to consider to improve our odds at getting to optimal that optimal choice.

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Is the #process going to suffer the same fate as every other broadly embraced tactic?

The all-out, sell-it-if-it-ain’t-nailed-down, multi-year rebuild is totally in vogue. It seems to be working too. The Royals—whose rebuild appeared to have flopped by 2013—are coming off a World Series Championship and consecutive World Series appearances. The team the Royals defeated in last year’s World Series was none other than the fresh-out-of-a-rebuild (or at least just-not-spending-money) Mets. The Cubs, who lost to the Mets in the 2015 NLCS and who entered the 2016 season with the highest odds (per the odds makers) to win the World Series, appear to be perennial contenders after completely overhauling their roster upon the arrival of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer in 2011. The Astros' drastic rebuild was well documented during their playoff run last year, as is that of the Braves. The Phillies’ rebuild even appears to be going better than planned.

You all, of course, already knew all this, but the point, as maybe unnecessary as it is, is made. It seems that all teams have to do is be diligent about providing a terrible major-league product for several years in order to enjoy success for many years thereafter. For those who have been paying attention, and especially for those who have frustratingly watched their teams stagnate in mediocrity (or worse) for years, the full-rebuild (as we will refer to it here) can appear to not only be a savior, but also optimal strategy.

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April 22, 2016 6:00 am

Free Agent Watch: Week Four

1

J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

If these players are on your league's waiver wire, they might be worth a look, depending on the format.

12-TEAM MIXED LEAGUES (HITTERS)

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April 21, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: The Big Trade, Untouchables, and Storytelling

1

Jeff Quinton

A look at the obstacles to fantasy blockbusters and how we might overcome them.

Onward—always onward—the calendar tacitly mandates. Auctions and drafts are now the past. Closing in on us is the in-season trade market.

Most of the leagues in which I participate do not see heavy trade activity at this point of the season. The adjective “heavy” in this instance (when affected by the preceding “not”) describes both the volume of trades (minimal) and the magnitude of trades (minor). But, once every so often, maybe once a season, maybe even less frequently, a big trade gets made. If we expand our requirements to include the entire season, not just the beginnings of the trade season, then we will still usually only find a few big trades.

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April 12, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: Bold Predictions and Confirmation Bias

0

Jeff Quinton

As the fantasy staff prepares its bold predictions for the 2016 season, Jeff examines the biases that can underlie them.

The Baseball Prospectus Fantasy team, me included, will be rolling out (bold) predictions this week (and maybe next week). The esteemed and excellently named Wilson Karaman already released his bold predictions here. You love bold predictions, I love bold predictions, we all love bold predictions. There are a lot of reasons we like bold predictions. Per my best estimates, the main reasons we like bold predictions are as follows: (i) they are easy to digest (instead of the slog that is an article on, say, confirmation bias), (ii) they offer analysis and insight that is often a break from the consensus, and (iii) they can confirm our past decisions or current beliefs and if they do not, then they can easily be ignored.

Over here at The Quinton, we cannot let stand people finding happiness in things. It just wouldn’t be right. That said, while the first two reasons for liking bold predictions are, on their own, harmless, the last reason can be problematic in regards to our future decision making. We might not want to admit it, but the way we read bold predictions articles is to quickly scan through for anything that makes us feel good, for anything that confirms what we believe or want to believe. The person writing the article thinks the player I reached for is going to be awesome? Awesome, now I do not feel as bad about the decision I made. The person writing the article thinks the player I passed on even though it was a great price is going to be bad? Awesome, now I feel better about the decision I made.

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April 8, 2016 6:00 am

Free Agent Watch: Week One

7

J.P. Breen and Jeff Quinton

If these players are on your league's waiver wire, they might be worth a look, depending on the format.

MIXED LEAGUE HITTERS

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April 5, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: Keeper-League Auction Takeaways

10

Jeff Quinton

Jeff shares a couple of lessons learned over the weekend in his -only league auctions.

On Saturday, I participated in my NL-only keeper-league auction. On Sunday, I participated in my AL-only keeper-league auction. Below are some takeaways from these auctions.

Spending with the Market
One way discounts come to be in an auction is when the market overvalues a particular player or type of player (for example, pitching), which then leaves owners without enough money to pay market price for players elsewhere (for example, hitting). It can be tempting to “spend with the market,” especially when we are being shut out of a position (for example, closers) or when we are weak in a particular area. My advice, especially in a keeper league, would be to pass on overpriced players, take the values elsewhere, and then trade those values (likely keepers) for whatever was going at a premium in the auction. Depending on your league’s trade activity (or lack of activity), this may or may not be possible, but I am still inclined to pass on certain areas and potentially dominate other areas rather than overspend. For one, this allows us to hold advantages elsewhere, but this also helps us on the waiver wire. Owners who overpay for certain players are likely to hold on to them too long and are also more likely to throw back usable players to fill in the gaps created by overspending.


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There Is No Offseason (TINO) is a Baseball Prospectus fantasy podcast focusing exclusively on dynasty league formats.

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April 1, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Punting Saves

0

Jeff Quinton

The auction values at hand lead Jeff to punt saves, leaving him with plenty to spend on his four-star infielders of choice.

The Process

You have to start somewhere and I started with the goal of getting good players. Really, this is exercise is the person assembling the roster (me) versus Mike Gianella (versus other contestants versus Gianella); this is unfortunate for me because I use Mike’s valuations as a starting point for my offseason process.

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