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Jeff Quinton 

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09-02

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Interleague Report: Week 23
by
Jeff Quinton

08-28

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Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape
by
Jeff Quinton

08-25

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4

Interleague Report: Week 22
by
Jeff Quinton

08-21

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Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

08-18

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Interleague Report: Week 21
by
Jeff Quinton

08-11

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Interleague Report: Week 20
by
Jeff Quinton

08-07

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Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline
by
Jeff Quinton

08-04

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Interleague Report: Week 19
by
Jeff Quinton

08-01

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14

Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Price Trade
by
R.J. Anderson, J.P. Breen, Sam Miller, Jordan Gorosh, Paul Sporer, Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!
by
Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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Transaction Analysis: Cardinals Trade from the Depths
by
Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella and Jason Parks

07-31

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

07-28

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Interleague Report: Week 18
by
Jeff Quinton

07-24

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Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

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Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

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Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

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Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-02

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

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Interleague Report: Week 14
by
Jeff Quinton

06-26

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades
by
Jeff Quinton

06-23

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Interleague Report: Week 13
by
Jeff Quinton

06-19

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Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

06-16

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Interleague Report: Week 12
by
Jeff Quinton

06-13

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Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

06-09

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Interleague Report: Week 11
by
Jeff Quinton

06-05

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory
by
Jeff Quinton

06-02

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Interleague Report: Week 10
by
Jeff Quinton

05-27

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Interleague Report: Week Nine
by
Jeff Quinton

05-22

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Fantasy Freestyle: Representativeness, Valuation, and Tanaka
by
Jeff Quinton

05-21

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13

Transaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the Suspense
by
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Quinton

05-19

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Interleague Report: Week Eight
by
Jeff Quinton

05-14

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Growing the Pie
by
Jeff Quinton

05-12

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Interleague Report: Week Seven
by
Jeff Quinton

05-07

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Fantasy Freestyle: Negotiation Styles
by
Jeff Quinton

05-05

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Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

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Interleague Report: Week Five
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Transaction Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

04-23

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: The Benefits of Early-Season Trade Talk
by
Jeff Quinton

04-21

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Interleague Report: Week Four
by
Jeff Quinton

04-16

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Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting Early-Season Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-14

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Interleague Report: Week Three
by
Jeff Quinton

04-09

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, and the Disposition Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

04-07

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Interleague Report: Week Two
by
Jeff Quinton

04-02

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14

Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auction Day
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

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6

The Miguel Cabrera Extension
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

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5

Interleague Report: Week One
by
Jeff Quinton

03-27

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4

My Model Portfolio: Hopefully, No Scrubs
by
Jeff Quinton

03-24

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Fantasy Freestyle: Is it Really All Currency?
by
Jeff Quinton

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September 2, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 23

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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August 28, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape

0

Jeff Quinton

Properly understanding the competitive landscape can be critical to your decision-making, especially in keeper leagues.

“Analyze process, not results.” With our most important strategic decisions behind us for this season, right now is a perfectly good time to take a look at our process. A part of “The Process” that often gets overlooked—that I know I have overlooked—is projecting the competitive landscape of our leagues. In a lot of articles, I discuss buyers and sellers, but in order to determine whether we are or will be a buyer or a seller, we first need to know where we currently and will stand. This seems pretty easy: take a look at the standings, see which teams have underperformed, overperformed, and performed as expected, take a guess at what they will do in the future, and there you have it. If it is a head to head league, you can take a look at future matchups, and if it is a rotisserie league you can take a look at the categories. Done and done.

The above was nearly my exact process for analyzing and projecting my leagues’ competitive landscapes. I would pay more attention to specific rankings if I was in the race for a title or playoff berth, but that was really it. As you guessed, this process did not work out very well. While it may seem harmless, the consequences of improperly projecting the competitive landscape can be very negative, especially in keeper leagues. This can cause us to sell when we actually had a chance to compete and buy when we really had no chances of winning. We know the consequences of poor projection, so let us take a look at the causes and what we can do to improve.

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August 25, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 22

4

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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August 21, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation

3

Jeff Quinton

"I was wrong" season for the fantasy team continues with a behavioral look at errors in forecasting how players will perform.

Seemingly out of nowhere, it has become “I was wrong” season for the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team. First, Craig Goldstein wrote about undervaluing Starling Marte, and then J.P. Breen wrote about undervaluing Yovani Gallardo. Both articles do an excellent job analyzing what each author missed regarding the specific player. What I hope to look at today is not what was missed about a specific player, but rather what parts of human behavior cause us to err when forecasting player production.

In order to do so, let us take a look at forecasting and what humans do when forecasting. My favorite definition of forecast (the verb) is from Merriam-Webster and it goes, “to predict after looking at the information available.” I like this definition because it is convenient for my article. I also like it because it highlights that our forecasts are dependent on “the information available.” Relatedly, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, our main human, Daniel Kahneman writes, “An essential design feature of the associative machine is that it represents only activated ideas.” Put differently, we cannot take into account that which we cannot imagine. I am throwing around a lot of combinations of words right now, so please allow me to simplify all this:

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August 18, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 21

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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August 11, 2014 10:25 am

Interleague Report: Week 20

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player who has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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August 7, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline

2

Jeff Quinton

Examining how the concepts about which Jeff writes can be applied to a real fantasy league scenario.

Less specifically, I type words. More specifically, I type words about the theories and concepts that surround fantasy baseball strategy. Every once in a while, it is worthwhile to zoom in a little, to take a look at an actual fantasy baseball example because it allows us to see how these concepts and theories can play out in our leagues. Consequently, I bring you a case study from my NL only keeper league (which also happens to be my favorite league). The trades and non-trades made by the top three teams in my league provide excellent studies on strategy, owner tendencies, competitive response, and trade markets as well as the interactions of all these concepts. Let us get cracking.

The League:
11 team, NL only, 5x5 roto, 15 major league keeper max, 4 minor league keeper max, 12 hitters/9 pitchers/1 utility slot.


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August 4, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 19

2

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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The Mariners clear a logjam, the Tigers get another ace, and the Rays end years of speculation.

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July 31, 2014 3:18 pm

Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!

0

Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

Seattle gets a spare outfielder, gives up future spare outfielder.

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St. Louis acquires John Lackey and a prospect for what amounted to spare parts in their deep-as-heck organization.

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July 31, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought

2

Jeff Quinton

Helpful tips for making the most of your 11th-hour swaps.

Good whatever time of the day you are reading this; more importantly, good almost trading deadline. At this point, you are all familiar with my love of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amost Tversky as well as my love of Kahneman’s very excellent Thinking, Fast and Slow. Up to this point, when my articles have involved their work, they have been regarding the thinking part rather than the fast and slow part. This has not been unintentional because in fantasy baseball we almost always have time to analyze every decision we make; thus, we almost always get to avoid thinking fast or System 1 thinking as Kahneman describes it. One of the exceptions to this particular “almost always” is your league’s trade deadline. In some leagues, there is a flurry of activity right before the deadline and thus a flurry of System 1 thinking.

This very moment seems like a great time to explain System 1 and System 2 thinking. Kahneman calls System 1, “the brain’s fast, automatic, intuitive approach” and System 2 “the mind’s slower, analytical mode, where reason dominates.” The former is great for making life more enjoyable by lowering the cognitive burden of living in such a complex world. In other words, System 1 is great for quickly and effortlessly making decisions of little consequence. When deciding which parking space you should park in or whether to go with Regular or 100% Colombian at Wawa (#regular4life), System 1 is the perfect system for the job. In fact, using System 2 for these types of decisions would be exhausting. That said, System 1 has many problems for navigating complex problems in that it is affected by biases, finds connections that do not exist, makes counterproductive associations, jumps to conclusions, and chooses the less cognitively difficult path instead of the optimal path. Conversely, System 2 is the better system for making important, difficult decisions. System 2 is not perfect for such instances, but it is the best we have and it is much better at overcoming many of the obstacles presented by System 1. The catch with System 2, however, is that it requires a certain amount of time.

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