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Jeff Quinton 

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10-24

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Fantasy Freestyle: Projection Season and the Recency Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

10-16

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Jon Jay
by
Jeff Quinton

10-10

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11

Transaction Analysis: Baltimore Hearts Hardy
by
Jeff Quinton

10-04

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4

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Recap: Orioles 7, Tigers 6
by
Jeff Quinton

10-03

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7

Playoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game Previews
by
Sahadev Sharma, Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella, Doug Thorburn and J.P. Breen

10-02

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Trades and the Importance of Hustle
by
Jeff Quinton

09-25

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

09-22

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Interleague Report: Week 26
by
Jeff Quinton

09-18

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Small Moves That Might Matter
by
Jeff Quinton

09-15

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Interleague Report: Week 25
by
Jeff Quinton

09-12

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example
by
Jeff Quinton

09-08

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Interleague Report: Week 24
by
Jeff Quinton

09-04

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Fantasy Freestyle: A Behavioral Look at Lineup Setting
by
Jeff Quinton

09-02

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Interleague Report: Week 23
by
Jeff Quinton

08-28

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Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape
by
Jeff Quinton

08-25

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4

Interleague Report: Week 22
by
Jeff Quinton

08-21

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

08-18

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Interleague Report: Week 21
by
Jeff Quinton

08-11

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Interleague Report: Week 20
by
Jeff Quinton

08-07

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline
by
Jeff Quinton

08-04

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2

Interleague Report: Week 19
by
Jeff Quinton

08-01

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14

Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Price Trade
by
R.J. Anderson, J.P. Breen, Sam Miller, Jordan Gorosh, Paul Sporer, Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!
by
Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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1

Transaction Analysis: Cardinals Trade from the Depths
by
Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella and Jason Parks

07-31

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

07-28

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Interleague Report: Week 18
by
Jeff Quinton

07-24

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

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Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

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1

Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-02

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

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2

Interleague Report: Week 14
by
Jeff Quinton

06-26

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades
by
Jeff Quinton

06-23

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Interleague Report: Week 13
by
Jeff Quinton

06-19

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

06-16

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2

Interleague Report: Week 12
by
Jeff Quinton

06-13

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

06-09

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Interleague Report: Week 11
by
Jeff Quinton

06-05

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory
by
Jeff Quinton

06-02

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1

Interleague Report: Week 10
by
Jeff Quinton

05-27

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Interleague Report: Week Nine
by
Jeff Quinton

05-22

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Fantasy Freestyle: Representativeness, Valuation, and Tanaka
by
Jeff Quinton

05-21

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13

Transaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the Suspense
by
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Quinton

05-19

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Interleague Report: Week Eight
by
Jeff Quinton

05-14

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Growing the Pie
by
Jeff Quinton

05-12

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3

Interleague Report: Week Seven
by
Jeff Quinton

05-07

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Negotiation Styles
by
Jeff Quinton

05-05

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3

Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

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A look at how to avoid allowing biases to influence your projections.

As soon as the baseball season comes to its inevitable and saddening end, baseball, as it does each year, will enter the offseason. For the fantasy baseball community, this means we will be entering ranking and projection season. After following “our players” and players of interest all season, we are now asked to take an all-encompassing look at the league’s baseball players. The result of doing projections periodically, as opposed to continuously, is that we are likely to invite certain biases into our processes, which can negatively impact our results. We will take a look at why we do periodic projections, the biases that come with such a process, how these biases manifest themselves, and some ways to hopefully de-bias our process.

Projection Season
The devil’s advocate in me asks, “if periodic projections causes certain problems, why not do continuous projections?” The short answer is that doing continuous projections is not feasible or desirable for most of us. A computer program could certainly perform continuous projections, but we—as mere people (note: people are awesome)—do not have the ability to continuously adjust our valuations on such a large scale. Sure, each time we watch, read about, or hear about a player, our impression of said player will be altered or reinforced consciously or subconsciously, but that is not what I am getting at. Rather, what I mean is that we cannot watch all players play every one of their plays, and we cannot fully analyze all of what we see or all of the available data. The result of all this humanness is that we can really only fully update our projections on a league-wide basis come decision times; those being the offseason for auctions and drafts, as well as, to some extent, the trade deadline. While we constantly update our valuations for the players we follow, my assumption is that very few people follow every player and those who do probably do not do so diligently enough to properly continuously update each player’s projection.


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October 16, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Jon Jay

2

Jeff Quinton

The Cardinals center fielder isn't a sexy late-draft option, but could he still hold fantasy value in 2015?

Player Background
The 29-year-old Jay has seemingly been around forever, but he has in fact only been playing baseball at the major-league level since 2010. Honestly (but there is no way you can really know), heading into the 2014 season, a playoff spotlight on the former second-round pick out of the University of Miami was the last thing I thought I would be writing in October. Why? Because after an unexciting 2013, Jay seemed destined to be replaced by the newer and apparently shinier Peter Bourjos. Additionally, super-prospect Oscar Taveras and notable prospect Randall Grichuk were waiting in the wings.

While players like Jay have almost no use in shallow leagues, finding affordable (cheaply acquirable) players to fill out your roster is a key to success in deeper leagues. Prospect theory tells us that when our expectations are lowered, such as at the end of drafts or auctions, we tend to be more risk-seeking (think buying lottery tickets). Consequentially, boring, lower-ceiling players like Jay tend to be passed up in favor of boom or bust type players (in the fantasy sense) such as Borjous, Cameron Maybin, or Chris Young. Sometimes these lottery tickets workout, but in knowing our behavioral biases, we know that the odds are not in our favor. Conversely, steady players like Jay with no ceiling to dream on can often come at a discount. Given all of this, let us see what happened in 2014.


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October 10, 2014 12:44 am

Transaction Analysis: Baltimore Hearts Hardy

11

Jeff Quinton

In the midst of the playofss, the Orioles extend their shortstop to a seemingly sensible deal.

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October 4, 2014 7:51 pm

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Recap: Orioles 7, Tigers 6

4

Jeff Quinton

Once again, the Tigers suspect bullpen loomed large in a loss to the Orioles, but did their manager put them in the best position to succeed?

Game Two of the 2014 ALDS featured a lot of starting pitchers, at least as defined by their regular season roles. Wie-Yin Chen and Justin Verlander only pitched 3 2/3 and 5 innings respectively. As a result, each team went with a starting pitcher as their first pitcher out of the bullpen. All four pitchers (Chen, Verlander, Kevin Gausman, and Anibal Sanchez) pitched excellently their first time through the order. While Sanchez was pulled after facing six hitters, the other three all got to take a shot at their opponent’s lineup a second time and, in Verlander’s case, a thirds time. Those results were bad.

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Four postseason games, with the first pitch scheduled before breakfast on the West Coast. Previews of all four of them.

All losses count the same no matter the score, so after a dismaying loss Thursday the Tigers get a chance to even the series.

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October 2, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trades and the Importance of Hustle

8

Jeff Quinton

A look at ways to avoid a moment that all fantasy owners dread.

There is a moment of dread that almost all fantasy baseball owners have faced, the moment when you are informed that a player you have been intending on targeting gets traded to another team. The metaphorical sibling of this moment is when you are informed that player has been traded and at that moment you realize that you should have been targeting that player, especially given the price tag. The typical response to such a trade usually goes like this (I have removed the profanity and replaced it with the meaning behind the profanity): “That’s really unfair, Team X did not get enough in return.” The best part follows: “I would have given Team X more for that player/those players.” Sometimes, we even get the cherry on top: “Well, we can all pack it in now and hand the trophy to Team Y (the trade partner of Team X).”

Allegedly unbalanced trades usually result in complaints of injustice from team owners who were not involved with the trade and even end up with owners trying to veto trades (my solution: do not play in leagues with vetoes). This is typical human response: Get worked up about unfairness and demand fairness, but do not attempt to fix the root cause, especially when the fixing involves action on our behalf. J.P. Breen (smart dude) sums this phenomenon up nicely in these two tweets:

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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy

1

Jeff Quinton

Distinguishing between the two approaches and explaining why the latter is far superior in fantasy baseball contexts.

As this fantasy baseball season ends and a new fantasy baseball off season begins, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at why I take the approach I do when writing about fantasy baseball. Consequently, I do so.

As I see it, there are two styles of strategy that can be used in fantasy baseball: (i) theory driven and (ii) context driven. While I write about theories and concepts in the majority of my articles, I am a firm believer in context-driven strategy, especially for fantasy baseball. Before I go any further, please find my definitions for theory driven and context driven strategy below:

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September 22, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 26

1

Jeff Quinton

Examining how the upcoming AL-vs.-NL and NL-vs.-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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September 18, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Small Moves That Might Matter

6

Jeff Quinton

Gaining a little extra value here and there can make a difference.

“Small moves that might matter” is certainly a connotatively positive way of describing relatively insignificant end-of-season, keeper league, roster moves. It is also certainly a more succinct title. We could just as accurately describe these moves as small moves that will probably not matter. What exactly are these moves? They are “who to drop” decisions of little consequence that come with the nature of keeper leagues and expanded September rosters. Here is an example I am facing in my 10-team, AL-only keeper league:

I need to activate or cut an $8 Drew Pomeranz this upcoming Sunday. In order to activate Pomeranz, I would need to release one of the following players: Danny Salazar ($15) or Rubby De La Rosa ($10). None of these pitchers are likely to be keepers at their current prices. I am currently in fourth place, the last position that pays out (I would get my entrance fee back). I am about 50-50 to finish fourth or fifth, which gets the first pick in next year’s minor-league draft. (In hopes of reverse jinxing myself, there is an outside shot that I finish in sixth.) I value a fourth- or fifth-place finish equally.

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September 15, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 25

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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September 12, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example

9

Jeff Quinton

Examining how to look at processes and the results they yield with a scenario from one of Jeff's leagues.

I say the following a lot: “analyze process, not results.” It is succinct and catchy. It almost reads like it should have lucky numbers on the back. But what does analyzing process actually look like? The offseason is the perfect time to analyze our processes and make improvements. In preparation, let us start by looking at one of my processes that lead to a poor result. Let us see if the poor result was a result of bad process or a possible outcome that was a part of a satisfactory or even optimal process. More importantly, let us see if there is an opportunity to improve my process.

Warning 1: What follows is not my usual application of a strategy, decision-making, or behavioral concept to fantasy baseball. Instead, what follows is an example from one of my fantasy baseball leagues that allows us to view the process of analyzing process.

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September 8, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 24

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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