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Jeff Quinton 

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03-02

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5

The Quinton: Market Corrections and Undervaluing Closers
by
Jeff Quinton

02-25

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3

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy
by
Jeff Quinton

02-20

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17

Tools of Ignorance: How are the Phillies Framing the Cole Hamels Decision?
by
Jeff Quinton

02-18

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4

The Quinton: The Players We Overlook and the Ambiguity Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

02-11

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18

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders (1-40)
by
Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

02-10

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19

Tools of Ignorance: How the Padres Won the Offseason
by
Jeff Quinton

02-09

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11

The Quinton: Diversification, Risk, and a Portfolio of Baseball Players
by
Jeff Quinton

02-05

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0

BP Unfiltered: On Baseball's New Marketing Agency And Appealing to the Masses
by
Jeff Quinton

02-05

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1

Player Profile: Troy Tulowitzki
by
Jeff Quinton

02-02

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5

The Quinton: Perceived Inflation and Nominating With Intention
by
Jeff Quinton

01-30

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2

Player Profile: Adrian Beltre
by
Jeff Quinton

01-30

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6

Transaction Analysis: Big Giant Snider
by
R.J. Anderson, Tucker Blair and Jeff Quinton

01-28

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0

The Quinton: Third Base and Avoiding Result-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

01-19

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0

The Quinton: Middle Infielders, Expectations, and Weaknesses
by
Jeff Quinton

01-14

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3

Player Profile: Mike Napoli
by
Jeff Quinton

01-12

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8

The Quinton: The Value of Having Options
by
Jeff Quinton

01-08

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3

Transaction Analysis: Yankees Fancy Drew
by
R.J. Anderson and Jeff Quinton

01-05

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6

The Quinton: Zagging: Catchers and an Opportunitistic Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

12-30

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Consuming the Positional Series
by
Jeff Quinton

12-18

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3

Fantasy Team Preview: San Francisco Giants
by
Jeff Quinton

12-15

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9

Prospectus Feature: The Surprising Math Teams Use to Value a Compensation Pick
by
Jeff Quinton

12-05

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12

Fantasy Team Preview: Chicago Cubs
by
Jeff Quinton

11-25

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and Responding to the Default Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

11-20

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and the Default Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

11-07

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0

Fantasy Team Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
by
Jeff Quinton

10-24

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Projection Season and the Recency Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

10-16

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Jon Jay
by
Jeff Quinton

10-10

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11

Transaction Analysis: Baltimore Hearts Hardy
by
Jeff Quinton

10-04

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4

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Recap: Orioles 7, Tigers 6
by
Jeff Quinton

10-03

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7

Playoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game Previews
by
Sahadev Sharma, Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella, Doug Thorburn and J.P. Breen

10-02

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Trades and the Importance of Hustle
by
Jeff Quinton

09-25

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

09-22

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1

Interleague Report: Week 26
by
Jeff Quinton

09-18

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Small Moves That Might Matter
by
Jeff Quinton

09-15

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Interleague Report: Week 25
by
Jeff Quinton

09-12

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example
by
Jeff Quinton

09-08

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Interleague Report: Week 24
by
Jeff Quinton

09-04

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Fantasy Freestyle: A Behavioral Look at Lineup Setting
by
Jeff Quinton

09-02

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Interleague Report: Week 23
by
Jeff Quinton

08-28

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Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape
by
Jeff Quinton

08-25

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4

Interleague Report: Week 22
by
Jeff Quinton

08-21

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

08-18

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Interleague Report: Week 21
by
Jeff Quinton

08-11

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Interleague Report: Week 20
by
Jeff Quinton

08-07

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline
by
Jeff Quinton

08-04

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2

Interleague Report: Week 19
by
Jeff Quinton

08-01

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14

Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Price Trade
by
R.J. Anderson, J.P. Breen, Sam Miller, Jordan Gorosh, Paul Sporer, Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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0

Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!
by
Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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1

Transaction Analysis: Cardinals Trade from the Depths
by
Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella and Jason Parks

07-31

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

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March 2, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Market Corrections and Undervaluing Closers

5

Jeff Quinton

Why some fantasy players might have taken the "don't pay for saves" mantra too far.

Like many, I have been dreading relief pitcher week. I would call closers my fantasy baseball Achilles heel, but that would be understating my other flaws. For years now, we have heard experts say, “Don’t pay for saves.” What these experts really meant by this sentiment is either (i) that we should not overpay for saves or (ii) that the (fantasy baseball) market was overvaluing saves.

While closers are still overvalued in some leagues, the closer market has corrected itself in many. Additionally, there appears to be some overcorrection happening—some owners end up avoiding saves all together. This can be a profitable strategy if the market is overvaluing saves, but it can also be a decision-making crutch for avoiding the most volatile position. If it is the latter (as it was for me last season), then we are likely to miss out on good values in the closer market and unnecessarily handicap our teams. While the majority of fantasy baseball participants are not undervaluing saves, this article is for those, like me, who have done so and are at risk of doing so in the future. We will take a look at how we came to do so and how we can hopefully overcome this weakness.

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February 25, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

3

Jeff Quinton

While he lacks the upside of other pitchers with similar ADPs, Kennedy's consistency and home park could make him a bargain.

Player Background

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Thinking about how the Phillies think about trading Cole Hamels.

To answer the question in the title, I do not know how the Phillies are framing the decision to trade Cole Hamels. We do know, however, how people frame decisions when facing risk and uncertainty—both of which the Phillies face with Hamels. Our risk-averse nature often drives the way we make decisions, but the way we frame decisions and consequent risk can often lead us to very different decision outcomes. Depending on how the Phillies frame their decision, both trading him now (ensure they get something back) or waiting for an elite return (ensure that they “get this one right”) can be viewed as the risk-averse decision. The hope (for Phillies fans) is that the Phillies are framing the decision simply as trying to maximize their return while taking all risks into account. That said, we will take a look at the ways people err when facing similar decisions and whether the Phillies are (or appear to be) falling into similar decision-making traps.

The Problem with Fuzzy Probabilities
Before we go any further it should be noted that we are starting with a premise that Cole Hamels must be traded by the Phillies eventually. An analyst or two out there might disagree with this premise, but given the Phillies' place in the competitive landscape, Hamels is worth less to them than to almost any other team in major-league baseball. So, given this starting point, questions like: How valuable will Cole Hamels be over the next four years? How valuable will the prospects get in return be? are irrelevant. All that matters is whether the Phillies can get a better return for Hamels in the future (spring training, offseason, etc.) than they can get for him now; and whether that better return is worth the risk inherent in waiting.


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February 18, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: The Players We Overlook and the Ambiguity Effect

4

Jeff Quinton

Why our risk-averse nature sometimes leads us to scan past players we should be selecting.

Every year I look back on the season and say, “How did I miss on that guy?” Unfortunately, I always end up asking this question about multiple players after each season. I am going to venture a guess that I am not alone in experiencing this. That said, it is often a good thing that we miss on some out of nowhere players; to quote Kathryn Schulz’s excellent Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin Error, “being wrong is often a side effect of a system that is functioning exactly right.” In other words, when dealing with an uncertain future, good process can still lead to misses—to bad results. Missing on Danny Santana posting a .405 BABIP or Michael Brantley posting a HR:FB rate nearly double his previous career high (by “miss,” we mean not paying a draft or auction day price for these breakouts) is actually a positive for our process rather than a knock against it. (Note: If we missed for predictable reasons, then that would be a knock on our process.)

However, these misses—the bad beats, the good process-bad outcomes—are not the misses I was talking about earlier. Rather, I was talking about the misses that should have been avoided. More specifically, the ambiguity effect causes us to miss out on players each year. Below we will take a look at the ambiguity effect, its different forms, and some strategies to battle it.

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February 11, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders (1-40)

18

Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

The first half of the list, stacking up the players at this position between now and the end of the 2017 season.

Previous articles in this series:

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San Diego's big offseason appeared to follow a strategy long prescribed for the amateur draft: Prioritize talent, not need.

Not sure if you have heard or not, but the Padres have gone from being incredibly boring to intriguing and, more importantly, playoff contenders. How did they do it? They acquired better players. How did they acquire better players? Through trades (mostly) and free agent signings (less-ly). The exciting part is that San Diego was able to do so without completely wiping out their farm system (holding onto their three top prospects in Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, and Matt Wisler as well as Rymer Liriano) and without spending a ton of cash. Put differently, the Padres paid a price to become relevant, but it was a price far less than anyone would have guessed given the pieces they acquired.

So how were the Padres—a team that was thought to be relatively void of playoff-level talent—able to position themselves as playoff contenders at such a seemingly low price? They did so by being opportunistic and leveraging depth, which they were able to do by finding motivated sellers and acquiring value instead of focusing on need.

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February 9, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Diversification, Risk, and a Portfolio of Baseball Players

11

Jeff Quinton

http://youtu.be/laKprX-HP94?t=1m15s

It being outfield week and all, it should be said that outfielders are great. Maybe they were not the best at handling groundballs and making quick, accurate throws growing up, but the reason the majority of them are still employed by MLB teams is because they can sure hit. Consequently, outfield is usually our most productive fantasy baseball position and the good ones are really good—of the 73 players (pitchers and hitters) to earn $22 or more in mixed leagues last year, more than a third (25) were outfielders. Because our teams are likely to contain multiple productive outfielders, we often consider mix when choosing between outfielders or top hitters for that matter. Getting production in each category is important in category leagues, but the more interesting question regarding player mix is how we should be balancing risk across our team. If you have been reading along, you know that our goal is going to be to select the players with the highest average return or the ones that give us the best chance at winning. However, we know that this goal is a tricky one to nail down and we can certainly benefit by discussing the intricacies of these decisions and why making the best decision can prove difficult. More specifically, we will discuss the implications of portfolio diversification and our perceptions of and attitudes towards risk.

Diversification

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Turning Budweiser's "Brewed The Hard Way" into an unlikeable baseball ad.

Major League Baseball has just hired the creative marketing agency Anomaly. Anomaly created Budweiser's anti-microbrew spot, "Brewed The Hard Way," which aired during the Super Bowl. How would the ad translate to an MLB commercial? As smooth as a Budweiser Black Crown.

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Navigating the durability concerns surrounding an otherwise-elite fantasy asset.

Player Background

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A look at how you should act in your auctions based on your league-mates' view of price inflation.

In a recent podcast, I was asked, among many other questions on strategy and decision-making, if I had any nomination strategies or suggestions for auctions. Being a rookie podcast guest I probably stumbled over my words, but I was trying to give the following answer:

“I usually nominate players that I am not interested in and sprinkle in players that I am interested in. The idea is to make sure your league-mates do not know which players you are in or out on based on the fact that you nominated the player. This helps a lot at the end of auctions, when you are more likely to wind up with a player you nominated. It is along the same lines of being an aggressive bettor in poker in that your indiscriminate bets make it tough to ever put you on a hand.”

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: Adrian Beltre

2

Jeff Quinton

The Rangers' third baseman is getting up there in age, but he continues to produce at a high level.

Player Background

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Big Giant Snider

6

R.J. Anderson, Tucker Blair and Jeff Quinton

Do you seek the gold?

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