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Jeff Quinton 

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08-01

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13

Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Price Trade
by
R.J. Anderson, J.P. Breen, Sam Miller, Jordan Gorosh, Paul Sporer, Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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0

Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!
by
Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

07-31

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1

Transaction Analysis: Cardinals Trade from the Depths
by
Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella and Jason Parks

07-31

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

07-28

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0

Interleague Report: Week 18
by
Jeff Quinton

07-24

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

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0

Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

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1

Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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0

Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-02

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

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2

Interleague Report: Week 14
by
Jeff Quinton

06-26

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades
by
Jeff Quinton

06-23

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0

Interleague Report: Week 13
by
Jeff Quinton

06-19

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

06-16

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2

Interleague Report: Week 12
by
Jeff Quinton

06-13

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

06-09

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0

Interleague Report: Week 11
by
Jeff Quinton

06-05

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory
by
Jeff Quinton

06-02

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1

Interleague Report: Week 10
by
Jeff Quinton

05-27

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0

Interleague Report: Week Nine
by
Jeff Quinton

05-22

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Representativeness, Valuation, and Tanaka
by
Jeff Quinton

05-21

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13

Transaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the Suspense
by
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Quinton

05-19

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0

Interleague Report: Week Eight
by
Jeff Quinton

05-14

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Growing the Pie
by
Jeff Quinton

05-12

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3

Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

05-07

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Negotiation Styles
by
Jeff Quinton

05-05

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3

Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

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0

Interleague Report: Week Five
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Transaction Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

04-23

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: The Benefits of Early-Season Trade Talk
by
Jeff Quinton

04-21

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0

Interleague Report: Week Four
by
Jeff Quinton

04-16

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting Early-Season Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-14

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1

Interleague Report: Week Three
by
Jeff Quinton

04-09

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, and the Disposition Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

04-07

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2

Interleague Report: Week Two
by
Jeff Quinton

04-02

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14

Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auction Day
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

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6

The Miguel Cabrera Extension
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

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5

Interleague Report: Week One
by
Jeff Quinton

03-27

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4

My Model Portfolio: Hopefully, No Scrubs
by
Jeff Quinton

03-24

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Is it Really All Currency?
by
Jeff Quinton

03-20

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Beating the Success Trap
by
Jeff Quinton

03-13

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: Raise Decisions and the Fantasy Win Curve
by
Jeff Quinton

03-06

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Prospect Theory on Draft Day
by
Jeff Quinton

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The Mariners clear a logjam, the Tigers get another ace, and the Rays end years of speculation.

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July 31, 2014 3:18 pm

Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!

0

Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

Seattle gets a spare outfielder, gives up future spare outfielder.

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St. Louis acquires John Lackey and a prospect for what amounted to spare parts in their deep-as-heck organization.

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July 31, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought

1

Jeff Quinton

Helpful tips for making the most of your 11th-hour swaps.

Good whatever time of the day you are reading this; more importantly, good almost trading deadline. At this point, you are all familiar with my love of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amost Tversky as well as my love of Kahneman’s very excellent Thinking, Fast and Slow. Up to this point, when my articles have involved their work, they have been regarding the thinking part rather than the fast and slow part. This has not been unintentional because in fantasy baseball we almost always have time to analyze every decision we make; thus, we almost always get to avoid thinking fast or System 1 thinking as Kahneman describes it. One of the exceptions to this particular “almost always” is your league’s trade deadline. In some leagues, there is a flurry of activity right before the deadline and thus a flurry of System 1 thinking.

This very moment seems like a great time to explain System 1 and System 2 thinking. Kahneman calls System 1, “the brain’s fast, automatic, intuitive approach” and System 2 “the mind’s slower, analytical mode, where reason dominates.” The former is great for making life more enjoyable by lowering the cognitive burden of living in such a complex world. In other words, System 1 is great for quickly and effortlessly making decisions of little consequence. When deciding which parking space you should park in or whether to go with Regular or 100% Colombian at Wawa (#regular4life), System 1 is the perfect system for the job. In fact, using System 2 for these types of decisions would be exhausting. That said, System 1 has many problems for navigating complex problems in that it is affected by biases, finds connections that do not exist, makes counterproductive associations, jumps to conclusions, and chooses the less cognitively difficult path instead of the optimal path. Conversely, System 2 is the better system for making important, difficult decisions. System 2 is not perfect for such instances, but it is the best we have and it is much better at overcoming many of the obstacles presented by System 1. The catch with System 2, however, is that it requires a certain amount of time.

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July 28, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 18

0

Jeff Quinton

Looking at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at bats.

Last Week

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July 24, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis

2

Jeff Quinton

Outperforming your competition year after year requires not only improvement but also staying a step ahead.

While I have been providing mid-season strategy articles of late, I came across the Red Queen effect the other day and began thinking about its impact on fantasy baseball. As a result, this article holds relevance throughout the entire season (maybe more so in the offseason), but does not hold specific relevance to this point in the season.

I am most likely a better fantasy baseball player today than I was two years ago. You are most likely a better fantasy baseball player than you were two years ago. Anyone who has been playing fantasy baseball for some amount of time is probably better now than they were before. If we are all improving, then getting better is helpful in that we do not fall behind, but it does not necessarily get us ahead. And that, kiddos, is the kicker. In other words, improving yourself and gaining an advantage are two very different things. In order to consistently succeed, we need to both improve and gain an advantage, but competition makes this inherently difficult. We will take a look at why it is difficult to sustain success and if anything can be done to overcome those difficulties.

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July 21, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 17

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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July 17, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy

8

Jeff Quinton

A look at how you should spend your free agent budget in keeper leagues to maximize value.

I was originally going to write this article on the impact of the winner’s curse on FAAB bidding, but in Google-checking my ideas before beginning to write them up, I came across this Erik Siegrist article. Am I the biggest fan of the name Eric(k) ending with a K? No. Is the article excellent and a must-read for those in keeper leagues? Absolutely. Does the article’s excellence make me feel self-conscious as a fantasy baseball writer? Yup (he pretty much wrote the article I wanted to write and wrote it better than I imagined I would). Anyhow, go read it.

The part I wish to expand on is midseason strategy. Come midseason, the FAAB market in keeper leagues tends to be markedly different than the market in the beginning of the season. Players who can help teams in the hunt almost always go above “keeper” value, leaving only players who will be of seemingly no use this year to potentially go at value or at a bargain. We have seen before that at this time of the year, when the goals of owners in keeper leagues diverge, discussion of strategy is important. Consequently, we will briefly discuss the winner’s curse and how that should impact the decision-making of owners depending on their competitive position.

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July 14, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 16

1

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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July 10, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets

0

Jeff Quinton

How understanding league norms could help you make the most of your fantasy swaps.

Many a fantasy baseball player is trying to make a trade right now. Many trades will be made that should not have been made. Many trades will not be made that should have been made. League norms, while usually helpful, can play a role in distorting fantasy baseball trades and trade talks. More specifically, league norms often cause us to make trades outside of what the market dictates. Again, this can cause trades that should be made to go unmade and trades that should not be made to be made. We will take a look at league norms and how they impact trades. We will then look at what we can do about it.

League Norms:
I am usually all into books and journal articles and stuff, but sometimes good ol’ Wikipedia has just what the internet writer ordered:


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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 15

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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July 2, 2014 6:30 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation

4

Jeff Quinton

As the peak of trade season approaches, it's worth thinking about how much prospect selections are actually worth.

Many a keeper league has a minor league draft to supplement the major league draft or auction; the trading of minor league draft picks is fairly common practice in these leagues. Often serving as the final pieces to help balance a trade, the value of these picks can range from incredibly valuable to having almost no value depending on the structure and rules of the league. Proper valuation of minor league draft picks is thus critical when making a trade that includes these draft picks. Today we look at several key factors to take into account when trading away or trading for draft picks. By looking at these factors, I mean that there are typed words on them below:

Number of minor league slots in the league (Minor League Depth)
The more minor league keeper spots in a league, the less valuable the picks become. All other variables made equal, the minor league picks in a 16-team league with four minor leaguers per team are more valuable than the picks in a 16-team league with five minor leaguers per team. Why? Because, in theory, the top 64 (16x4) fantasy prospects would be owned in the first league, whereas the top 80 (16x5) prospects would be owned in the second league. Therefore, come next year’s minor league drafts, more top prospects would be available in the first league than the second league. Also, prospects that make significant improvements—the ones that jump up real and fantasy lists—are less likely to be owned in the first league than the second league. What are not different between the two leagues, generally, are the top prospects available from the most recent MLB minor league draft. Because prospects from the most recent MLB minor league draft are usually the best players for our fantasy minor league drafts (with the exception being the previously mentioned un-owned players that have made large strides), the first handful of picks in minor league drafts will be the same regardless of minor league depth. The true difference in value of minor league draft picks, as determined by minor league depth, is thus the value of the picks that follow these top picks from the MLB minor league draft. In leagues with shallow minor league depth, a bottom first round pick will probably be a top-50 fantasy prospect. In leagues with deep minor league depth, a bottom first round pick might not be a top 100 fantasy prospect.


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