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Jay Jaffe 

Author of the weekly Prospectus Hit List, now in AL and NL flavors, as well as the Prospectus Hit and Run column, and BP's in-house expert on the Hall of Fame.
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04-19

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The BP Wayback Machine: Remembering Jackie Robinson, and the Man Who Taught Me About Him
by
Jay Jaffe

03-06

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Curious Case of Freddie Lindstrom
by
Jay Jaffe

11-30

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Take Me Out of the Hall Game
by
Jay Jaffe

09-21

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The BP Wayback Machine: Backing into the Playoffs
by
Jay Jaffe

08-31

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3

Prospectus Hit and Run: Fat Elvis' Swan Song
by
Jay Jaffe

07-30

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2

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Midsummer Replacement-Level Killers, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

07-23

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Midsummer Replacement-Level Killers, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

07-11

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1

BP Unfiltered: A Correction from Down Under
by
Jay Jaffe

06-29

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20

Prospectus Hit and Run: JAWS Chews on Some Cooked Outfielders
by
Jay Jaffe

06-22

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20

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Hate List, Part III
by
Jay Jaffe

05-18

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Yeah, But is it Gonna Fly?
by
Jay Jaffe

05-16

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Beckett and Hyde
by
Jay Jaffe

05-14

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19

BP Announcements: A New Platform
by
Jay Jaffe

05-14

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Not-So-Dandy Return
by
Jay Jaffe

05-11

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15

Prospectus Hit and Run: Donnie Buntball
by
Jay Jaffe

05-09

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24

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Phallin' Phillies
by
Jay Jaffe

05-04

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, NL Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

05-02

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, AL Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

04-30

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Hate List, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

04-27

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: Labrum But it Didn't Kill Him
by
Jay Jaffe

04-23

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bartolo Colon and the Comeback Kids
by
Jay Jaffe

04-20

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13

Prospectus Hit and Run: Pudge Retires
by
Jay Jaffe

04-18

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: Sizzling Starts
by
Jay Jaffe

04-16

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: Land of 1,000 Runs
by
Jay Jaffe

04-13

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13

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Hate List, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

04-12

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Prospectus Hit and Run: You've Never Been This Far Before
by
Jay Jaffe

04-09

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Matter of Ninth-Inning Experience
by
Jay Jaffe

04-04

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: Loose Threads: West Division
by
Jay Jaffe

04-02

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6

BP Unfiltered: Earning our Varsity Letters [Updated]
by
Jay Jaffe

04-02

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3

Prospectus Hit and Run: Loose Threads: Central Division
by
Jay Jaffe

03-30

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: Loose Threads: East Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

03-26

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: Rattling SABRs in the Desert, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

03-23

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Rattling SABRs in the Desert, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

03-19

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Rotation Rumble
by
Jay Jaffe

03-12

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12

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Rotation Rumble
by
Jay Jaffe

03-07

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43

Prospectus Hit and Run: Inspecting the Spectrum, Part IV: The Designated Hitter Question
by
Jay Jaffe

03-05

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31

Prospectus Preview: NL West 2012 Season Preview
by
Jay Jaffe and Geoff Young

02-29

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: Inspecting the Spectrum, Part III: Out of Left Field, Again
by
Jay Jaffe

02-24

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Big Shoes to Fill
by
Jay Jaffe

02-20

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Inspecting the Spectrum, Part II: The Podz People
by
Jay Jaffe

02-17

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17

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Greatness of Gary Carter
by
Jay Jaffe

02-15

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21

Prospectus Hit and Run: Inspecting the Spectrum, Part I: The Cold Corner, Again
by
Jay Jaffe

02-13

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

02-10

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

02-08

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Rising Payrolls of the Post-Collusion Era
by
Jay Jaffe

02-06

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: Beware of Falling Payrolls
by
Jay Jaffe

02-01

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7

BP Unfiltered: Jaffe Versus Bowa
by
Jay Jaffe

02-01

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Replacement-Level Killers, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

01-30

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Replacement-Level Killers, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

01-27

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25

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Heavyweight Infield
by
Jay Jaffe

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A longtime BP author undertakes a new challenge.

Dear Readers,

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May 14, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Not-So-Dandy Return

1

Jay Jaffe

Andy Pettitte's return to the Bronx is marred by the weak-hitting Mariners.

On a gorgeous 79-degree Mother's Day at Yankee Stadium—the kind of day fit for a storybook—Andy Pettitte made his return to a major-league mound following an absence of nearly 19 months. Revered by the fans for his contributions to seven pennant-winners and five world champions, the 39-year-old lefty received huge ovations every time his name came over the public address system prior to the game. Pettitte pitched into the seventh inning and left little doubt that he could help the 2012 Yankees, at times showing glimpses of his vintage self, but alas, he could provide no storybook ending to that setup, making a couple of crucial mistakes against a weak-hitting Mariners lineup. Meanwhile, his pinstriped teammates looked as flat as day-old soda against Mariners starter Kevin Millwood, no spring chicken himself at age 37, and the Yankees fell 6-2.

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May 11, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Donnie Buntball

15

Jay Jaffe

Don Mattingly's affinity for the bunt could be keeping the Dodgers from scoring more runs.

Like many a Dodger fan, I found myself pulling out clumps of hair on Tuesday night. The Dodgers—a first-place team at 19-10 to that point, surprisingly—were facing the Giants (14-15) in L.A. Despite having Clayton Kershaw on the hill, they were on the short end of a 2-1 score, because with a man on base in the second inning, their ace left a high fastball to Brett Pill a bit too far out over the plate, and Pill drove it 384 feet into the left-field bleachers. The Dodgers had plated a run against Ryan Vogelsong in the bottom of the second thanks to a pair of doubles, but they could get no more, and as the innings passed, the situation grew more desperate.

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May 9, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Phallin' Phillies

24

Jay Jaffe

Manager Charlie Manuel's bullpen management has been doing Philadelphia no favours this season.

They may have entered the year as favorites to win their sixth straight NL East flag, but with every passing day, the Phillies look increasingly like a team whose time has passed. Over the weekend they dropped two out of three to the division-leading (!) Nationals and fell into the NL East cellar. On Monday, they suffered a shocking 5-2 loss to the Mets when Jonathan Papelbon surrendered a three-run pinch-homer to Jordany Valdespin, a pinch-hitter collecting his first major-league hit. On Tuesday, they blew a three-run lead against the Mets thanks to sloppy defense and ultimately fell 7-4. The skid dropped their record to 14-17, matching their worst start of the past six years, which came via their division-winning 2007 team. Their offense is wheezing, and while their star-studded rotation may be in reasonable shape, their manager is suffering from rigor mortis when it comes to handling his bullpen.

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May 4, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, NL Edition

14

Jay Jaffe

Which NL starters are off to a worse start than the Angels' not-yet-sluggy first baseman?

On Wednesday, I examined a half-dozen American League hitters who are off to chillier starts than even Albert Pujols in an attempt to shine a light on a handful of developing stories centered around underperforming players. Of course, none of those hitters has the track record or the job security of the Angels' newest marquee attraction; neither do seven billion other people on Earth. In other words, they're a wee bit more likely to find themselves riding the pine or worse if they continue to flounder, and at the very least, their small-sample struggles—and for this the threshold is 70 plate appearances, not long enough for any key hitter statistic to stabilize—are worth your attention.

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May 2, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, AL Edition

18

Jay Jaffe

Albert Pujols may be struggling, but there are major-league regulars doing even worse.

Albert Pujols you know about. The $240 million man has yet to get untracked for the Angels and ended the month of April hitting a paltry .217/.265/.304 without a homer. He's hardly the only hitter who has begun 2012 in a funk, though. In fact, 41 other hitters came into Tuesday with True Averages lower than or equal to that of Pujols' .225 in at least 65 plate appearances, i.e., enough to qualify for the batting title. Sure, those are small samples sizes, but we're 14 percent of the way through the season, with one page of the calendar wadded up into a ball, so it's not like we can't at least gawk at the outliers. What follows is a look at a half-dozen AL hitters—none of them as good as Pujols to begin with, admittedly—who are struggling to an even greater degree than the Angels slugger, and where they and their teams might go from here.

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April 30, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Hate List, Part II

11

Jay Jaffe

What's Jay's beef with your team?

Stick around long enough in the business of covering baseball and you're bound to hear accusations of bias, particularly when you bring a little extra vitriol to an analysis of somebody else's favorite team. Let's face it: Even the homeliest of franchises is somebody's favorite team, and the homelier they are, the higher the chance that its fan base gets a wee bit sensitive when folks come a-piling on. After getting under a few more skins than usual, I started this project a few weeks ago as a way of making light of the grudges, great and small, that I bear against every team—including the ones for whom I cheer when I'm kicking back on the couch or at the ballpark. Welcome back to the Hate List, where I've got something against your team.

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Michael Pineda's labrum tear doesn't bode well for his future, but it's not the death sentence it used to be.

On Wednesday, the Yankees revealed that Michael Pineda had suffered a torn labrum, a devastating turn of events both for the 23-year-old righty and for the team that acquired him from the Mariners for top prospect Jesus Montero back in January. Pineda will miss the entire season and part of 2013, thinning the Yankees' surplus of starting pitching—and underscoring the fact that you can never have too much—while raising the question of whether they will ever get much value out of him.

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April 23, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bartolo Colon and the Comeback Kids

1

Jay Jaffe

Though recent trends might indicate otherwise, aged pitchers rarely return to form after year-long layoffs.

Sure, it came against an Angels lineup whose centerpiece, Albert Pujols, has yet to get untracked, but it was difficult not to be impressed with Bartolo Colon's eight shutout innings last Wednesday. For one thing, it marked the 38-year-old Oakland righty's second consecutive scoreless start; he had tossed seven scoreless against the Mariners on April 13. For another, he reeled off a streak of 38 consecutive strikes, running from the second pitch of the fifth inning through the seventh pitch of the eighth inning, a span that included balls in play; he allowed only a single and a double during that time. Pitch-by-pitch records only go back to 1988, so there's no definitive account of whether Colon set a record, but via the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser, the next-highest known total was 30 in a row by Tim Wakefield in 1998.

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It's the end of a catching era; Pudge Rodriguez is hanging up the spikes.

Ivan Rodriguez is scheduled to announce his retirement on Monday, closing the curtain on a 21-year career in which he set standards for all-around play and longevity among catchers. Rodriguez played just 44 games with the Nationals last year, and while his name surfaced as a potential stopgap for the Royals when Salvador Perez went down with a knee injury in mid-March, the 40-year-old backstop apparently did not receive a formal offer from the club. No matter, his career is as complete as a Cooperstown résumé need be without crouching around waiting for Jonathan Sanchez to find the strike zone.

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The Dodgers are off to the best start in the majors, but fast starters don't always finish at the top.

The Dodgers, who bolted out of the gate by winning nine of their first 10 games, are off to the hottest start in the majors. They're not exactly steamrolling opponents; five of those wins were by a single run, including a pair of walk-off wins on Friday and Sunday. The offense, while ranking second in the league in scoring at 5.0 runs per game through Monday, is essentially Matt Kemp (.487/.523/1.026 with six homers), Andre Ethier (.289/.372/.658 with three homers), and the Seven Dwarves, since the rest of the team is hitting a combined .209/.308/.261 with one homer. There's Juan Uribe as Porky, A.J. Ellis as Walky, Dee Gordon as Swipey (as in bases), James Loney as Stealey (as in the Dodgers' money)… and so on.

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April 16, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Land of 1,000 Runs

14

Jay Jaffe

It's a folly to suggest that the 2012 Tigers--or any other team--will be able to score 1,000 runs.

During the first series of the season, the Tigers rolled up 26 runs while sweeping a three-game series from the Red Sox, after which Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo dropped an item in his Sunday notes column about the high-powered offense driven by Miguel Cabrera and newcomer Prince Fielder. "Some baseball people believe the Tigers could score close to 1,000 runs with these two hitting back to back," wrote Cafardo, never elaborating as to who those baseball people might be.

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