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Jason Collette |
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April 12, 2013 7:20 am
BP Fantasy Podcast: Our Podcast Turns 40 |
Jason and Paul discuss hot starts, cold starts, injuries of the week, and witness Greinke's season take an unfortunate turn for the worst during the show. Carlos Quentin is fertilizer.
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April 9, 2013 5:00 am
Fantasy Freestyle: High-Stakes League Free Agent Rundown |
Jason looks through list of players added in NFBC leagues over the past week and offers notes on a bunch that surprisingly remain unowned in many of them.
Crazy early-season statistics can make fantasy owners do silly things. In the past week, I have heard from a few Twitter followers that have either executed or witnessed some head-scratching moves already this season.
The most recent one was a report from someone in a 12-team mixed dynasty league who dropped—yes, dropped—Norichika Aoki to pick up Trevor Bauer. The move breaks two tenets of fantasy baseball: Do not play for the future in the first two months of the season, and do not drop anyone you just drafted unless he is injured. MLB.com’s Cory Schwartz has a nice guideline for this using an inverse scale. If you draft someone in the 23rd round, you have to keep him for at least three scoring periods; conversely, first-round picks should stay on your roster for at least 23 weeks.
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April 7, 2013 3:54 pm
Inside The Park Blog: Misery Loves Company |
For the second straight start, David Price was not sharp. Then again, neither were most of the aces that pitched on Sunday.
Today was a day that many teams played their sixth game of the season, meaning that opening day starters would be making their second starts of the season. That meant the likes of Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Stephen Strasburg, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, James Shields, Jeff Samardzija, and both defending Cy Young winners would be on the mound. At the end of the day, most of that group had starts they would rather forget as most of the pitchers had starts they would rather forget none more than David Price.
April 7, 2013 7:47 am
BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 39 |
There Is Always Trust In The Wikipedia. Jason and Paul review the opening week of the season and Jason Parks stops in to discuss his trip to Arizona and what caught his attention.
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April 2, 2013 5:00 am
Fantasy Freestyle: As Good as They Once Were? |
Jason uses historical examples to see whether pitchers with declining strikeout rates can reverse that trend.
Borrowing a bit from Toby Keith’s hit a few years back:
I ain't as good as I once was
I got a few years on me now
But there was a time, back in my prime
When I could really mow ‘em down
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March 29, 2013 5:20 pm
BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 38 |
Paul Sporer couldn't go to ToutWars, but he sits down to chat with Jason, Mike, and Paul Singman about their teams, strategies, and drinks of choice at Foley's.
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March 27, 2013 5:00 am
Fantasy Freestyle: Expert-League Auction Comparison |
With Tout Wars now in the books, Jason looks at the similarities and differences between that auction, CBS, and LABR.
This past weekend, I participated in the American League Tout Wars draft in New York City. If you missed my team review from earlier this week on the Unfiltered blog, you can find it by clicking here. Once the expert auctions are done, I like to compare the results from the three industry auction drafts—LABR, CBS, and Tout Wars—to look for similarities and differences. The three auctions take place at different times, with CBS coming in late February, LABR in early March, and Tout Wars in late March, so it allows us to see how hot or cold spring trainings as well as injuries affect experts’ evaluations and strategies. For example, Mark Teixeira went for $24 in the CBS auction, but after getting injured during the WBC schedule, his value fell to $6 in Tout Wars. Rick Porcello went undrafted in the CBS auction, but a hot spring has propelled his value to $4 in LABR and $5 in Tout Wars over the past weekend.
Despite the different personalities that make up the ownership rosters of each of the three expert leagues, the spending habits are rather similar on a macro level. The talent pool does not change that much over the course of the four weeks, between the CBS auction and the Tout Wars auction, so differences come down to strategy and any major injuries.
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March 25, 2013 10:51 am
BP Unfiltered: My Tout Wars Team |
I did not get everyone I wanted, but am still pleased with my results.
March 21, 2013 11:15 am
BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 37: Custer Had a Plan |
Jason is back and is joined by Mike Gianella as they talk about the depleting third base pool, Aroldis Chapman, concerns with Tommy Hanson, the latest installment of the ESPN top 500 list, Jason's NFBC draft, and what the two of them have planned for their Tout Wars drafts this weekend.
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March 20, 2013 5:00 am
Fantasy Freestyle: Saves Are Everywhere |
Using data from recent seasons, Jason explains why drafters are waiting longer than ever to select their closers.
The beauty of baseball lies in its unpredictability—which spawned the #ycpb (you can’t predict baseball) hashtag, as well as youcanpredictbaseball.com. While the sport may not be predictable, it only takes a cursory glance at the statistics from recent seasons to see that offense is down and pitching is up.
One particular part of pitching that is on a rapid rise is saves. Last season, there were 1,261 saves converted in baseball, and that total was just four shy of the post-expansion era record of 1,265 set in 1998, when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays brought the league to 30 teams. Between 1998 and 2012, the numbers have been all over the place, as the save stat remains as risky league-wide as it is on an individual level for fantasy owners.
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March 15, 2013 12:37 pm
BP Fantasy Podcast: NFBC Update |
How ADP's are changing over the past 5 weeks
Here is the latest ADP data from NFBC, sorted by the largest player drops.
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March 12, 2013 5:00 am
Fantasy Beat: Alex Cobb's Rising Auction Value |
The Rays righty has become a popular breakout candidate, but there are reasons to temper short-term expectations.
Rays righty Alex Cobb has been collecting a bit of fantasy helium in recent weeks. He went for $9 and $11 in recent expert league auctions, and some sites are suggesting that compare him to veterans like Hiroki Kuroda. Moreover, three members of the ESPN fantasy analyst panel recently pegged Cobb as their fantasy starting-pitcher sleeper.
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Jason Collette is a senior writer on the fantasy team of Baseball Prospectus and has a 14 year history of providing fantasy analysis on the web. He writes regularly for the ESPN Sweetspot Blog Network for the Rays fanblog, TheProcessReport and has contributed to the last two BP annuals. 
Fantasy Freestyle: An Out-of-Tune Vogelsong
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