Search Articles by Harry Pavlidis
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0 Stolen Signs Podcast: Pitcher Similarity Scores by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: The Rise of the Two-Way Player by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: Baseball and Psychology with Dan Brooks and Russell Carleton by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: Sabermetrics Timeline by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: Stats and Storytellers with Jonah Keri by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: Not Just Academic: Rob Arthur and Jim Albert on the Hot Hand by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: DIPs, FIP, DRA and You by Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis
0 Stolen Signs Podcast: Episode 1: Welcome to the Stolen Signs podcast by Harry Pavlidis and Kendall Guillemette
5 Prospectus Feature: Unlocking Kyle Hendricks by Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis
3 Prospectus Feature: Two Ways to Tunnel by Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis
17 Prospectus Feature: Introducing Pitch Tunnels by Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis
17 Prospectus Feature: Command and Control by Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis
5 Baseball Prospectus Book News: Baseball Prospectus 2016 Stats and Projections by Harry Pavlidis and Rob McQuown
16 Prospectus Feature: Catching Up by Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis
6 Catchella by Harry Pavlidis
18 Prospectus Feature: Updates to FRAA, BP's Fielding Metric by Harry Pavlidis, Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge
10 Prospectus Feature: DRA: Improved, Minused, and Demonstrated by Jonathan Judge, Robert Arthur, Harry Pavlidis, Dan Turkenkopf and Gregory J. Matthews
76 Prospectus Feature: Introducing Deserved Run Average (DRA)'And All Its Friends by Jonathan Judge, Harry Pavlidis and Dan Turkenkopf
33 Moving Beyond WOWY by Jonathan Judge, Harry Pavlidis and Dan Brooks
11 Fox's Fresh Format by Harry Pavlidis
1 Pitcher Profile: Jake Arrieta by Harry Pavlidis
0 BP Announcements: Pizza and Prospects: Chicago, May 24 by Harry Pavlidis
0 BP Unfiltered: Pineda is Back by Harry Pavlidis
2 Pitcher Profile: New Arms (and Pitches) of the Week by Harry Pavlidis
4 Framing the Future by Harry Pavlidis
18 Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2014 Preseason Preview by Ken Funck and Harry Pavlidis
9 BP Announcements: Prospects, Pizza, and More: March 8 at Monti's in Chicago by Harry Pavlidis
47 Framing and Blocking Pitches: A Regressed, Probabilistic Model by Harry Pavlidis and Dan Brooks
16 Baseball Prospectus News: A New Direction for Stats at BP by Harry Pavlidis
5 What Makes a Good Changeup? by Harry Pavlidis
1 Pitcher Profile: Speeding Up at the Break by Harry Pavlidis
0 BP Unfiltered: Jeff Samardzija's Mysterious Splitter by Harry Pavlidis
17 What Makes a Good Changeup? by Harry Pavlidis
2 What Makes A Good Changeup by Harry Pavlidis
5 New Arms: Flamethrowers, Hammers, and Knucklers by Harry Pavlidis
3 Pitcher Profile: Rookie Rotation Arms by Harry Pavlidis
0 Pitcher Profile: A Pair of Astros by Harry Pavlidis
6 Dissecting Darvish's Opening Day by Jason Cole, Zachary Levine, Ben Lindbergh and Harry Pavlidis
1 BP Unfiltered: The Velocity Gainers and Losers of Spring 2013 by Harry Pavlidis
8 Prospectus Preview: These Questions Three: The Maybe-Next-Years by Bradford Doolittle and Harry Pavlidis
0 Pitcher Profile: A Prospect, a Non-Prospect, and a Blast From the Past by Harry Pavlidis
5 Pitcher Profile: New Arms of the World by Harry Pavlidis
2 Pitcher Profile: Four Growing Giants by Harry Pavlidis
2 BP Unfiltered: Sloan Q&A: Harry Pavlidis On f/x Tracking Data by Zachary Levine and Harry Pavlidis
3 Pitcher Profile: New Arms of the Week, First Edition by Harry Pavlidis
10 Pitcher Profile: Aroldis Chapman by Harry Pavlidis
14 BP Unfiltered: Home Run Rates and Elbow Injuries UPDATED by Corey Dawkins, Ben Lindbergh, Harry Pavlidis and Doug Thorburn
10 Pitcher Profile: Milwaukee's Rotation Brew by Harry Pavlidis
0 Pitcher Profile: Johnny Cueto by Harry Pavlidis
9 PITCHf/x Mailbag: Swing Tendencies on 3-0 Counts by Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis
The best receiving catchers (and the best receiving teams) of the upcoming season.
One of the benefits of our
recently released catching defense metrics is they’re essentially ready-to-project, thanks to the regression feature of the model (the "R" in RPM). RPM also gives us two ways to assign value to framing, one using context (the ball-strike count) and one using a flat value (recently adjusted* to ~.155 runs).
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March 25, 2014 7:37 am
Part three in a division-by-division dialogue leading up to Opening Day. An upcoming event for those in the Chicago area.
Join us in Chicago on Saturday, March 8 at Monti’s on the North Side of Chicago for two hours of pizza, cheesesteak , and baseball talk.
Read the full article... The best blockers and receivers, revealed.
[T]he expected runs produced from each plate appearance starting with a strike decreases by .029 runs and increases by .040 for every ball thrown on a first pitch. In other words, having as many of those 0-0 'striballs' called strikes can greatly impact the outcome of the game.
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December 19, 2013 6:00 am
A new philosophy, and some new faces, for the stats team at Baseball Prospectus.
Two things about Baseball Prospectus that seem to remain true:
Read the full article... Harry draws on a conversation with former big-leaguer Brian Bannister to extend his PITCHf/x research on changeups from earlier in the year.
A few months ago, I started a series on changeups focused on figuring out the qualities that make a good one. Click the following links to read
part one and part two.
If there was a noteworthy finding in the early stages, it was that pitchers who succeed at coaxing ground balls with their changeups generally looked dissimilar from those who missed bats with theirs. The pitchers who can do both are the best.
topped that list, so the first waft of the sniff test was passed. Stephen Strasburg Read the full article... Did the starters and relievers who worked in the Futures Game and the All-Star Game enjoy velocity bumps? Harry digs into the PITCHf/x data for the answer.
Pitching ruled the All-Star break. The Futures Game featured a gaggle of power arms and a grand total of six runs. And that was twice the output of the main event, where the National League's best failed to score a run.
made an emotional appearance. And, in the Home Run Derby, Ron Harper showed off a cutter of his own. Mariano Rivera
I have a confession to make: I think the Futures Game is the best part of the All-Star break.
Read the full article... Unraveling the secret of an unusual pitch.
has become one of my favorite pitchers. But for a few years, he was a thorn in my side. Okay, maybe more like two thorns. Jeff Samardzija Read the full article... Harry looks at the impact of velocity differentials between fastballs and changeups on whiff rates and ground-ball rates.
Two weeks ago, I looked at some of the factors that may impact "changeup" quality. When dealing with major-league pitchers, you are dealing with a rather select sample, so all results should be handled with care. In other words, this isn't a roapmap to pitcher development, but a single marker on the road.
Let's recap some of
part one: Read the full article... Some pitchers' changeups get better results than others. Can we identify the factors that matter?
What makes a good changeup? Speed differential (i.e. being 7-10 MPH off a fastball)? Is it depth or fade, perhaps the tumble on a splitter? Location and command? Deception (e.g. matching arm speed and release point)? Or is it context, how the batters are setup based on the count or the read of their swing?
Oh, right. Results. We judge on results.
Read the full article... This week's edition features our first look at a diverse batch of pitchers, plus an update on the hardest fastballs and the sharpest curves thrown this year.
As the calendar turns into May, we're still seeing new arms pop up on the PITCHf/x radar. This week, we look at a pair of emergency call-ups. And now that we have a month of data under our belt, we can take a look at the best of the new arms in velocity and curveball drop.
Starter Number Nine Read the full article... Harry examines the stuff used by four first-year starters, including Jose Fernandez.
Four pitchers that made their first MLB starts—or debuted—in 2013 have stayed in their teams’ rotations to make at least one more. These pitchers have combined for 10 starts, covering 55 1/3 innings while yielding 52 strikeouts and just 11 walks—and providing 866 tracked pitches along the way. Impressive.
, RHP, Jose Fernandez Miami Marlins Read the full article...