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Harry Pavlidis 

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02-12

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5

Baseball Prospectus Book News: Baseball Prospectus 2016 Stats and Projections
by
Harry Pavlidis and Rob McQuown

01-12

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16

Prospectus Feature: Catching Up
by
Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis

01-12

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6

Catchella
by
Harry Pavlidis

11-25

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18

Prospectus Feature: Updates to FRAA, BP's Fielding Metric
by
Harry Pavlidis, Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge

06-10

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10

Prospectus Feature: DRA: Improved, Minused, and Demonstrated
by
Jonathan Judge, Robert Arthur, Harry Pavlidis, Dan Turkenkopf and Gregory J. Matthews

04-29

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76

Prospectus Feature: Introducing Deserved Run Average (DRA)—And All Its Friends
by
Jonathan Judge, Harry Pavlidis and Dan Turkenkopf

02-05

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33

Moving Beyond WOWY
by
Jonathan Judge, Harry Pavlidis and Dan Brooks

10-13

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11

Fox's Fresh Format
by
Harry Pavlidis

07-09

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1

Pitcher Profile: Jake Arrieta
by
Harry Pavlidis

05-15

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0

BP Announcements: Pizza and Prospects: Chicago, May 24
by
Harry Pavlidis

04-07

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0

BP Unfiltered: Pineda is Back
by
Harry Pavlidis

04-03

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2

Pitcher Profile: New Arms (and Pitches) of the Week
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-31

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4

Framing the Future
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-25

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18

Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2014 Preseason Preview
by
Ken Funck and Harry Pavlidis

03-08

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9

BP Announcements: Prospects, Pizza, and More: March 8 at Monti's in Chicago
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-03

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47

Framing and Blocking Pitches: A Regressed, Probabilistic Model
by
Harry Pavlidis and Dan Brooks

12-19

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16

Baseball Prospectus News: A New Direction for Stats at BP
by
Harry Pavlidis

08-30

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5

What Makes a Good Changeup?
by
Harry Pavlidis

07-17

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1

Pitcher Profile: Speeding Up at the Break
by
Harry Pavlidis

05-30

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0

BP Unfiltered: Jeff Samardzija's Mysterious Splitter
by
Harry Pavlidis

05-24

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17

What Makes a Good Changeup?
by
Harry Pavlidis

05-10

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2

What Makes A Good Changeup
by
Harry Pavlidis

05-03

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5

New Arms: Flamethrowers, Hammers, and Knucklers
by
Harry Pavlidis

04-19

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3

Pitcher Profile: Rookie Rotation Arms
by
Harry Pavlidis

04-12

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0

Pitcher Profile: A Pair of Astros
by
Harry Pavlidis

04-03

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6

Dissecting Darvish's Opening Day
by
Jason Cole, Zachary Levine, Ben Lindbergh and Harry Pavlidis

04-01

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1

BP Unfiltered: The Velocity Gainers and Losers of Spring 2013
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-28

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8

Prospectus Preview: These Questions Three: The Maybe-Next-Years
by
Bradford Doolittle and Harry Pavlidis

03-22

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0

Pitcher Profile: A Prospect, a Non-Prospect, and a Blast From the Past
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-15

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5

Pitcher Profile: New Arms of the World
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-08

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2

Pitcher Profile: Four Growing Giants
by
Harry Pavlidis

03-02

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2

BP Unfiltered: Sloan Q&A: Harry Pavlidis On f/x Tracking Data
by
Zachary Levine and Harry Pavlidis

03-01

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3

Pitcher Profile: New Arms of the Week, First Edition
by
Harry Pavlidis

02-22

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10

Pitcher Profile: Aroldis Chapman
by
Harry Pavlidis

02-21

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14

BP Unfiltered: Home Run Rates and Elbow Injuries UPDATED
by
Corey Dawkins, Ben Lindbergh, Harry Pavlidis and Doug Thorburn

02-15

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10

Pitcher Profile: Milwaukee's Rotation Brew
by
Harry Pavlidis

02-06

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0

Pitcher Profile: Johnny Cueto
by
Harry Pavlidis

08-08

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9

PITCHf/x Mailbag: Swing Tendencies on 3-0 Counts
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

07-13

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5

BP Announcements: Normalized Hitter/Pitcher Profiles Have Arrived
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

07-12

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24

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP Pitcher Profiles
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

07-09

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22

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP Hitter Profiles
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

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March 31, 2014 6:00 am

Framing the Future

4

Harry Pavlidis

The best receiving catchers (and the best receiving teams) of the upcoming season.

One of the benefits of our recently released catching defense metrics is they’re essentially ready-to-project, thanks to the regression feature of the model (the "R" in RPM). RPM also gives us two ways to assign value to framing, one using context (the ball-strike count) and one using a flat value (recently adjusted* to ~.155 runs).

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March 25, 2014 7:37 am

Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2014 Preseason Preview

18

Ken Funck and Harry Pavlidis

Part three in a division-by-division dialogue leading up to Opening Day.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

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An upcoming event for those in the Chicago area.

Join us in Chicago on Saturday, March 8 at Monti’s on the North Side of Chicago for two hours of pizza, cheesesteak, and baseball talk.

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The best blockers and receivers, revealed.

[T]he expected runs produced from each plate appearance starting with a strike decreases by .029 runs and increases by .040 for every ball thrown on a first pitch. In other words, having as many of those 0-0 'striballs' called strikes can greatly impact the outcome of the game.

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A new philosophy, and some new faces, for the stats team at Baseball Prospectus.

Two things about Baseball Prospectus that seem to remain true:

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Harry draws on a conversation with former big-leaguer Brian Bannister to extend his PITCHf/x research on changeups from earlier in the year.

A few months ago, I started a series on changeups focused on figuring out the qualities that make a good one. Click the following links to read part one and part two.

If there was a noteworthy finding in the early stages, it was that pitchers who succeed at coaxing ground balls with their changeups generally looked dissimilar from those who missed bats with theirs. The pitchers who can do both are the best. Stephen Strasburg topped that list, so the first waft of the sniff test was passed.

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Did the starters and relievers who worked in the Futures Game and the All-Star Game enjoy velocity bumps? Harry digs into the PITCHf/x data for the answer.

Pitching ruled the All-Star break. The Futures Game featured a gaggle of power arms and a grand total of six runs. And that was twice the output of the main event, where the National League's best failed to score a run. Mariano Rivera made an emotional appearance. And, in the Home Run Derby, Ron Harper showed off a cutter of his own.

I have a confession to make: I think the Futures Game is the best part of the All-Star break.

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Unraveling the secret of an unusual pitch.

Jeff Samardzija has become one of my favorite pitchers. But for a few years, he was a thorn in my side. Okay, maybe more like two thorns.

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Harry looks at the impact of velocity differentials between fastballs and changeups on whiff rates and ground-ball rates.

Two weeks ago, I looked at some of the factors that may impact "changeup" quality. When dealing with major-league pitchers, you are dealing with a rather select sample, so all results should be handled with care. In other words, this isn't a roapmap to pitcher development, but a single marker on the road.

Let's recap some of part one:

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Some pitchers' changeups get better results than others. Can we identify the factors that matter?

What makes a good changeup? Speed differential (i.e. being 7-10 MPH off a fastball)? Is it depth or fade, perhaps the tumble on a splitter? Location and command? Deception (e.g. matching arm speed and release point)? Or is it context, how the batters are setup based on the count or the read of their swing?

Oh, right. Results. We judge on results.

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This week's edition features our first look at a diverse batch of pitchers, plus an update on the hardest fastballs and the sharpest curves thrown this year.

As the calendar turns into May, we're still seeing new arms pop up on the PITCHf/x radar. This week, we look at a pair of emergency call-ups. And now that we have a month of data under our belt, we can take a look at the best of the new arms in velocity and curveball drop.

Starter Number Nine

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Harry examines the stuff used by four first-year starters, including Jose Fernandez.

Four pitchers that made their first MLB starts—or debuted—in 2013 have stayed in their teams’ rotations to make at least one more. These pitchers have combined for 10 starts, covering 55 1/3 innings while yielding 52 strikeouts and just 11 walks—and providing 866 tracked pitches along the way. Impressive.

Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins

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