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Eric Seidman 

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02-22

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5

Checking the Numbers: Paying the Premium
by
Eric Seidman

01-26

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20

Checking the Numbers: Withholding Aplenty
by
Eric Seidman

01-13

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21

Checking the Numbers: The Questionable Pursuit of Garza
by
Eric Seidman

01-06

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56

Checking the Numbers: The Jock Tax
by
Eric Seidman

12-30

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6

Seidnotes: WARP Speed
by
Eric Seidman

12-23

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6

Seidnotes: The Rodrigo Lopez All-Stars
by
Eric Seidman

12-22

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14

Checking the Numbers: Relievers and the Value of Perfect Information
by
Eric Seidman

12-15

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35

Checking the Numbers: Ranking R2C2
by
Eric Seidman

12-08

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7

Checking the Numbers: A Snake, a Padre, and a Dodger Walk into a Bar...
by
Eric Seidman

12-01

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17

Checking the Numbers: Upton and Away
by
Eric Seidman

11-24

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0

Checking the Numbers: On Investment Value and Outfielders
by
Eric Seidman

11-18

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2

Checking the Numbers: Sneaky Good in the Junior Circuit
by
Eric Seidman

11-10

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9

Checking the Numbers: Sneaky Good in the Senior Circuit
by
Eric Seidman

11-04

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13

Checking the Numbers: Minor-league Contract Candidates: Pitchers
by
Eric Seidman

11-03

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10

Checking the Numbers: Minor-league Contract Candidates: Batters
by
Eric Seidman

10-25

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9

Checking the Numbers: Cratering
by
Eric Seidman

10-22

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5

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Six Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-21

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6

Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-20

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12

Playoff Prospectus: Wednesday LCS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-19

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10

Checking the Numbers: I'm Relieved to Start
by
Eric Seidman

10-16

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1

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LCS Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-15

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11

Playoff Prospectus: Friday ALCS Game Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-13

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21

Checking the Numbers: The Meaningless Awards
by
Eric Seidman

10-12

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11

Playoff Prospectus: Tuesday LDS Game Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-11

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10

Playoff Prospectus: Monday LDS Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-11

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3

Checking the Numbers: Gauging True Talent
by
Eric Seidman

10-10

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Sunday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-09

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LDS Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-08

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Friday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-07

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Thursday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-07

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13

Checking the Numbers: The Turnaround Kids
by
Eric Seidman

10-06

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Wednesday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

09-30

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26

Seidnotes: A Triple Short of Driving Me Insane
by
Eric Seidman

09-28

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31

Prospectus Perspective: Racing for the Cy
by
Eric Seidman

09-24

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23

Checking the Numbers: Examining the Braves' Decision
by
Eric Seidman

09-23

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43

Checking the Numbers: Setting the Records Straight
by
Eric Seidman

09-22

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11

Checking the Numbers: The Cards Come Crumbling Down
by
Eric Seidman

09-17

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15

Checking the Numbers: CarGo on the Road
by
Eric Seidman

09-16

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14

Checking the Numbers: Chipper, Eddie, and Pete
by
Eric Seidman

09-15

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6

Checking the Numbers: Say Goodbye to the Triple Crown
by
Eric Seidman

09-10

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5

Seidnotes: Loney Loves Ribeyes
by
Eric Seidman

09-08

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11

Checking the Numbers: Triple Crown Update
by
Eric Seidman

09-07

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7

Checking the Numbers: Freaky Concerns
by
Eric Seidman

09-03

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5

Checking the Numbers: Who is the Best Switch-Hitter?
by
Eric Seidman

09-02

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15

Seidnotes: A Streak of Myers
by
Eric Seidman

09-01

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25

Checking the Numbers: Simulating the Triple Crown
by
Eric Seidman

08-27

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12

Prospectus Perspective: He Who Shall be Crowned
by
Eric Seidman

08-25

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7

Checking the Numbers: The Second Tier
by
Eric Seidman

08-20

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16

Seidnotes: What Did Brown Do for You?
by
Eric Seidman

08-18

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4

Seidnotes: Those Who Don't Need Support
by
Eric Seidman

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October 11, 2010 10:30 am

Playoff Prospectus: Monday LDS Projection

10

Eric Seidman

A look at how the Giants and Braves stack up in tonight's NLDS Game 4.

Now that the divisional series are concluding or reaching that point, these previews may feel a bit lighter. The Yankees took care of business over the weekend, sweeping the Twins and advancing to the American League Championship Series. The Rangers appeared to be heading towards the ALCS, too, but the Rays quashed their hopes of making things easy by taking both games in Arlington. Home field advantage simply hasn’t existed in that series, and Tuesday night will feature a fifth game with a redux of the starting pitching matchup from Game One between David Price and Cliff Lee. The Phillies used a dominating performance by Cole Hamels to sweep the Reds in the National League, and will head back home to wait out the eventual victor of the only series being played Monday: Giants-Braves.

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Why regular-season numbers don't always carry into October.

Last week, we rolled out post-season PECOTA projections that were used to generate anticipated results for each game of every playoff matchup. The goal was simple: provide the readers with the most accurate information capable of helping guide their expectations for a particular matchup. The projections were never meant to be treated as the gospel, but rather as more accurate tool of evaluating the outcomes of certain games than simply eyeballing the lineups or strictly using numbers from this past season. However, in the process of writing the daily summaries and projected results for every lineup, it became clear that not only was the entire process in need of further explanation, but so too was the concept that a true talent level is best-suited for this type of exercise.

Read the full article...

A look at the three post-seasons game on top today, two of which are elimination games.

Well, that didn’t take long, as the Yankees have already moved on from the American League Division Series to the American League Championship Series while the Twins are once again sent home. I don’t necessarily buy into the whole psychological factor that the media seems to think is a tremendous storyline. The Twins are a great team, but the Yankees are greater. I highly doubt a great team like the Twins subconsciously sabotages itself throughout a game and that’s why the other team comes away victorious. It’s tough to beat a team so deep that Lance Berkman isn’t even a regular, regardless of whether or not players on the opposing team have some deep-rooted notion that they are the lesser team entering the matchup. The Yankees will rest up, avoiding the need to use CC Sabathia on short rest, and awaiting the outcome of our first series today.

Read the full article...

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October 9, 2010 8:00 am

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LDS Projections

3

Eric Seidman

Duensing and Hughes square off in the Bronx, Colby Lewis attempts to secure the Rangers' first playoff series victory, while the Rays' pin their hopes to Matt Garza.

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LDS Projections

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October 8, 2010 5:40 pm

Playoff Prospectus: Friday LDS Game Projections

9

Eric Seidman

PECOTA predicts how today today's post-season affairs will turn out.

By now, it should be fairly evident what we’re trying to do with these PECOTA post-season updates. While the projections are in no way infallible, especially given the multitude of factors that can cause a team to win or lose a single game, using the methodology of such a system provides a much more accurate baseline of expected performance from an individual than regular season numbers. Someone like Omar Infante may continue to hit like an All-Star infielder, but the most probable outcome is that his overall numbers regress. This can be a hard concept to reconcile, as it isn’t as if regression starts and stops with the flick of a switch, but are you really comfortable assuming that Infante, or even Josh Hamilton for that matter, will just pick up where they left off? Then again, in a short series, there is such a small sample of plate appearances to analyze that anyone can mask their true talent level.

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October 7, 2010 11:30 am

Playoff Prospectus: Thursday LDS Game Projections

9

Eric Seidman

PECOTA predicts how Thursday's slate of post-season games should turn out.

The postseason is now officially underway, and while PECOTA didn’t peg the exact results in the first three games, they were exciting nonetheless. Then again, I don’t think any projection or prediction lent credence to the idea that Roy Halladay would kick off his Doctober with a no-hitter—and one of those real­ no-hitters, not the cheap ones with five or more walks. Cliff Lee continued his playoff success by holding the Rays to just one run after a potentially scary first inning. And while the Yankees-Twins matchup wasn’t pretty from a pitching standpoint, it was certainly entertaining. But that was yesterday, and today we have three more matchups to discuss: the Rays and Rangers square off at 2:30 p.m. EST, the Twins host the Yankees at 6 p.m., and the Braves visit San Francisco for a 9:30 p.m. Two Game Twos. And Tim Lincecum’s post-season debut should make for quite the fun Thursday.

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October 7, 2010 8:00 am

Checking the Numbers: The Turnaround Kids

13

Eric Seidman

Taking a look at the most improved players of 2010.

In addition to post-season baseball, the month of October brings with it the first chance to reflect on the regular season that has just ended. For many fans whose favorite teams did not qualify for the postseason, such reflections can conjure up disappointing memories stemming from the previous offseason, or from a putrid stretch in the middle of the year that knocked them out of contention. For fans of the playoff teams, the reflections often form a mental highlight reel of the season. Regardless of personal team allegiances, I always find it fun to reflect on the season by looking at some of the surprise performances of the year. In this context, a surprise performance would belong to a player whose numbers were nowhere near as appealing a year ago.

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October 6, 2010 8:50 pm

Playoff Prospectus: Wednesday LDS Game Projections

9

Eric Seidman

Our stat guru, Colin Wyers, has developed PECOTAs for the postseason matchups and here is a first look.

This article will be updated periodically, as the playoff-specific PECOTA lines are processed for the matchups. Stay tuned throughout the day for updates.

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September 30, 2010 8:00 am

Seidnotes: A Triple Short of Driving Me Insane

26

Eric Seidman

Here's wishing all broadcasters would quit obsessing over something rather trivial.

Vernon Wells has had a nice rebound season after struggling mightily last year. In 629 plate appearances, the Blue Jays' center fielder is hitting .273/.331/.518, with 31 home runs and 42 doubles. Heck, his defense has been less maligned this season even if the various metrics still consider his work to be below average. But this past Monday, Wells came close to achieving something rare: making me incredibly angry. It wasn’t technically his fault, but if not for his efforts I wouldn’t have wanted to tear my hair out.

After hitting a single and home run off of A.J. Burnett, Wells doubled off of David Robertson and found himself one hit away from the cycle. Only, the remaining hit was the hardest one to get, and announcers inevitably started claiming that Wells was “a triple short of the cycle.” If I thought spitting my breakfast at the television would have done anything, I would have done so, but instead I sat back on the couch, sulked, and continued watching highlights, hoping that I had just dreamt the entire thing.

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September 28, 2010 8:00 am

Prospectus Perspective: Racing for the Cy

31

Eric Seidman

The race in the National League is so hot it bleeds red, while there is no competition when determining the best American League pitcher.

It’s hard to believe that the regular season is almost over, as it feels like yesterday that Ubaldo Jimenez had his sub-1.00 ERA and Roy Halladay tossed his perfect game. The year has flown by, and as we enter the final week of the regular season it is impossible to avoid discussions of potential award winners. Today, we will focus on the Cy Young Award, as this was the “Year of the Pitcher” after all, and in addition to a couple of top-notch candidates in both leagues, there are a bevy of pitchers whose numbers may have merited more serious inclusion in another year. Unfortunately, discussions of the award tend to veer off in different directions because the award itself is perceived as ambiguous. Before getting into any conversation centering on either who will or who should win the award, who is supposed to get the award?

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September 24, 2010 8:00 am

Checking the Numbers: Examining the Braves' Decision

23

Eric Seidman

Was Bobby Coxs decision to not line up his rotation for a key series against the Phillies suicidal to the Braves playoff hopes?

One of the best parts of September is that a group of teams will inevitably play the most important games of their seasons in that month. Seldom is there a season in which the four playoff spots in each league are locked up before the final weeks, and this season has been no different. To start this week, the Phillies were set to battle the Braves in the most important series of both of the National League East rivals' years to date, while the Yankees and Rays fought for American League East supremacy in arguably their biggest series of the season. However, unlike the latter match-up in which both teams are definitely going to the playoffs, the former had more serious playoff implications at stake.

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September 23, 2010 8:00 am

Checking the Numbers: Setting the Records Straight

43

Eric Seidman

Contextualizing when a record occurred does not cheapen the feat, but instead magnifies it.

A few weeks ago, Bob Hertzel wrote a thought-provoking column here at Baseball Prospectus that sought to identify baseball records that would never be broken. The thesis seemed to be that many records may feel out of reach, yet those same records were thought to be impossible to break when they were originally achieved. My friends and I participate in the same type of discussion on occasion when we go out to watch games, and it is one of the most interesting topics to bring up in a crowd of baseball nuts. Not only will strong opinions emerge, but there are usually oddball records that surface over which to ponder. For instance, did you know that Ty Cobb has the AL record with nine inside-the-park home runs in the 1909 season? Or that Eddie Murray has the record for most sacrifice flies in a career with 128? Or how about that Bob Shaw was called for a record five balks on May 4, 1963? With so many stats, records are bountiful, and it is always fun to reflect.

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