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Happy Holidays! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 29

Eric Seidman 

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02-22

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5

Checking the Numbers: Paying the Premium
by
Eric Seidman

01-26

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20

Checking the Numbers: Withholding Aplenty
by
Eric Seidman

01-13

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21

Checking the Numbers: The Questionable Pursuit of Garza
by
Eric Seidman

01-06

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56

Checking the Numbers: The Jock Tax
by
Eric Seidman

12-30

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6

Seidnotes: WARP Speed
by
Eric Seidman

12-23

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6

Seidnotes: The Rodrigo Lopez All-Stars
by
Eric Seidman

12-22

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14

Checking the Numbers: Relievers and the Value of Perfect Information
by
Eric Seidman

12-15

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35

Checking the Numbers: Ranking R2C2
by
Eric Seidman

12-08

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7

Checking the Numbers: A Snake, a Padre, and a Dodger Walk into a Bar...
by
Eric Seidman

12-01

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17

Checking the Numbers: Upton and Away
by
Eric Seidman

11-24

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0

Checking the Numbers: On Investment Value and Outfielders
by
Eric Seidman

11-18

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2

Checking the Numbers: Sneaky Good in the Junior Circuit
by
Eric Seidman

11-10

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9

Checking the Numbers: Sneaky Good in the Senior Circuit
by
Eric Seidman

11-04

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13

Checking the Numbers: Minor-league Contract Candidates: Pitchers
by
Eric Seidman

11-03

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10

Checking the Numbers: Minor-league Contract Candidates: Batters
by
Eric Seidman

10-25

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9

Checking the Numbers: Cratering
by
Eric Seidman

10-22

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5

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Six Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-21

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6

Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-20

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12

Playoff Prospectus: Wednesday LCS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-19

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10

Checking the Numbers: I'm Relieved to Start
by
Eric Seidman

10-16

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1

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LCS Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-15

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11

Playoff Prospectus: Friday ALCS Game Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-13

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21

Checking the Numbers: The Meaningless Awards
by
Eric Seidman

10-12

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11

Playoff Prospectus: Tuesday LDS Game Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-11

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10

Playoff Prospectus: Monday LDS Projection
by
Eric Seidman

10-11

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3

Checking the Numbers: Gauging True Talent
by
Eric Seidman

10-10

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Sunday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-09

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LDS Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-08

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Friday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-07

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Thursday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-07

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13

Checking the Numbers: The Turnaround Kids
by
Eric Seidman

10-06

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Wednesday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

09-30

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26

Seidnotes: A Triple Short of Driving Me Insane
by
Eric Seidman

09-28

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31

Prospectus Perspective: Racing for the Cy
by
Eric Seidman

09-24

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23

Checking the Numbers: Examining the Braves' Decision
by
Eric Seidman

09-23

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43

Checking the Numbers: Setting the Records Straight
by
Eric Seidman

09-22

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11

Checking the Numbers: The Cards Come Crumbling Down
by
Eric Seidman

09-17

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15

Checking the Numbers: CarGo on the Road
by
Eric Seidman

09-16

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14

Checking the Numbers: Chipper, Eddie, and Pete
by
Eric Seidman

09-15

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6

Checking the Numbers: Say Goodbye to the Triple Crown
by
Eric Seidman

09-10

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5

Seidnotes: Loney Loves Ribeyes
by
Eric Seidman

09-08

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11

Checking the Numbers: Triple Crown Update
by
Eric Seidman

09-07

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7

Checking the Numbers: Freaky Concerns
by
Eric Seidman

09-03

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5

Checking the Numbers: Who is the Best Switch-Hitter?
by
Eric Seidman

09-02

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15

Seidnotes: A Streak of Myers
by
Eric Seidman

09-01

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25

Checking the Numbers: Simulating the Triple Crown
by
Eric Seidman

08-27

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12

Prospectus Perspective: He Who Shall be Crowned
by
Eric Seidman

08-25

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7

Checking the Numbers: The Second Tier
by
Eric Seidman

08-20

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16

Seidnotes: What Did Brown Do for You?
by
Eric Seidman

08-18

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4

Seidnotes: Those Who Don't Need Support
by
Eric Seidman

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Taking a peek at the players who were stealthily good in the NL in 2010.

With Major League Baseball about to enter its official awards season, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at some players who will not be regaled with hardware but who performed admirably under the radar. These players were sneakily effective, eliciting “he was that good” reactions much more frequently than confident head nods upon glancing at their end-of-season statistics. In some cases, the players derived much of their success in the field while others managed to put together all-around great campaigns while lacking publicity. Others might not have performed at a star level but finished with noteworthy numbers relative to their production a year ago.

Read the full article...

Looking at free-agent pitchers who will potentially be forced sign minor-league contracts.

Yesterday we took a look at several batters who may be forced to sign a minor-league contract this winter to have a chance at playing in the major leagues next season. The minor-league contract is a safeguard from a financial standpoint for the teams, as they can stash away players that might contribute in the future without using a spot on the 40-man roster. Additionally, teams do not have to commit to the much higher salaries players in the major leagues receive. Should one of these signees make the team, he would of course be paid at the higher rate, but because of the level of uncertainty surrounding the player’s health or talent, minor-league deals have become quite prevalent over the last several years.

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November 3, 2010 12:00 pm

Checking the Numbers: Minor-league Contract Candidates: Batters

10

Eric Seidman

As players hit free agency, not everyone will come away with a big-league deal. Who might sign a minor-league contract?

Now that the World Series has ended—and a hearty congratulations to the Giants and their fans—baseball has officially entered its off-season. In the very near future, teams will begin to sign or trade players or cut them loose after deciding they are not worth an arbitration raise. Not every signing is created equally, however, as these transactions can range anywhere from the high-profile free-agent inking a monster deal to Willy Taveras being given a shot at making a major-league roster.

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October 25, 2010 8:00 am

Checking the Numbers: Cratering

9

Eric Seidman

A look at the hitters whose True Average fell sharply from one season to the next and how they fared the following season.

Lance Berkman had a down year. I know that isn’t exactly earth-shattering news, but he did not perform up to the level we have come to expect given his career numbers. At 34 years old, he is unlikely to continue to hit like he did in the early part of his career, but his 2010 numbers paled in comparison to those produced a year ago, when he hit .274/.399/.509 with a .314 TAv. In 2010, Berkman put up a .288 TAv while hitting .248/.368/.413. Though his season was plagued by injuries, he managed a mere 14 home runs, and that slash line looks strange when attached to his name. The numbers were not terrible, but rather different, considering that he has never posted a BA below .274, an OBP below .386, an SLG below .509, or a TAv below .300.

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October 22, 2010 11:00 am

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Six Projection

5

Eric Seidman

PECOTA predicts if the Yankees will live to see another game in 2010 or if the Rangers advance to their first World Series.

The day after the Rangers took a commanding 3-1 lead in the ALCS, the Yankees bats finally awoke from their lengthy slumber and relieved their frustration on lefty C.J. Wilson. With the win, the Yankees kept the series going, forcing at least one more game in Arlington. Home-field advantage has been largely irrelevant this postseason, but the Yankees could face one major hurdle should they force a seventh game: Cliff Lee. If Phil Hughes can outduel Colby Lewis, the prize for the Yankees is another matchup with Lee, who is looking more and more like this generation’s Curt Schilling with every playoff start. To get to that juncture, however, the Yankees will need to keep their bats hot. Does PECOTA see this is as a likely possibility? Or does the series end after six games?

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October 21, 2010 1:00 pm

Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Projection

6

Eric Seidman

PECOTA tells us how Thursday night's game will turn out.

The World Series is around the corner at this point, and with the ALCS taking an off day for travel purposes, the lone game on the docket could very well be the last the Phillies play this season. The Giants took a commanding 3-1 lead in the NLCS on Wednesday night in a game filled with questionable managerial decisions from Charlie Manuel and good ones from Giants skipper Bruce Bochy. Prior to the game, most thought it made more sense to send Roy Halladay to the hill than Joe Blanton given that, well, that is why the likely Cy Young Award winner was brought to Philadelphia.

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October 20, 2010 2:00 pm

Playoff Prospectus: Wednesday LCS Game Projections

12

Eric Seidman

Predicting how ALCS Game 5 and NLCS Game 4 wil turn out.

First off, I would like to apologize for being out of commission with these previews the last couple of days. Colin Wyers and I discovered a bug that recently surfaced in the projections that caused the slugging percentages of everyone to inflate. Fortunately, the effect was equal for both teams, so while it would not be prudent to publish the slash lines until the bug is fixed, the actual odds of winning the games is not affected. Therefore, until we feel comfortable with the individual projections, I am going to bring you the odds for each matchup with a bit of a what-to-watch-for preview.

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October 19, 2010 11:00 am

Checking the Numbers: I'm Relieved to Start

10

Eric Seidman

How do pitchers typically fare when transitioning from the bullpen to the starting rotation?

A couple of weeks back, I wrote an article called ‘The Turnaround Kids’ which identified the players with the most substantial improvements from 2009 in TAv, WARP, SNWP, and WXRL. Everyone loves a good turnaround, and it was interesting to see how Aubrey Huff’s 6.1 WARP was not only high, but representative of a vast improvement from a year in which he fell below replacement level. Similarly, Brad Lidge might not have put together the greatest season in 2010, but he was solid, and his numbers look masterful when compared to the dreck he put on display a year ago. In all likelihood, Josh Hamilton experienced the greatest turnaround, improving from a disappointing and injury-plagued campaign that found him at the replacement level into the odds-on favorite to win the American League’s Most Valuable Player award.

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October 16, 2010 4:09 pm

Playoff Prospectus: Saturday LCS Projections

1

Eric Seidman

The Phillies and Giants kick off their series while the Yankees and Rangers continue their tilt in Texas.

Wait, the Yankees won?! I decided to turn in for the night as C.J. Wilson led comfortably, 5-1. Even though Robinson Cano had just homered, the game had that feel of being practically over. I wake up and lo and behold, I see a headline about being able to hear pin drops as the Yankees stunned the Rangers. That will teach me to make assumptions about games before they actually end! Today we get to see a game from each series, as the Rangers look to even things up at home, while the Phillies and Giants kick off their championship series with, hyperbole included, possibly the greatest playoff pitching matchup of the last decade: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay.

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October 15, 2010 9:30 am

Playoff Prospectus: Friday ALCS Game Projection

11

Eric Seidman

If Game 1 between the Yankees and Rangers were an election, there might be a recount.

After what felt like an eternity off, post-season play resumes tonight with the Yankees visiting the Rangers in the first game of the American League Championship Series. The Yankees should be well-rested after easily dispatching of the Twins in a three-game sweep in the Division Series, while the Rangers are “forced” to go with their second best-starter in C.J. Wilson due to finishing their LDS on Tuesday night. As with the Division Series, we will be producing PECOTA projections for this tier of the playoffs in an attempt to more accurately assess what the major players for each team bring to the table in the form of a true talent level.

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October 13, 2010 8:00 am

Checking the Numbers: The Meaningless Awards

21

Eric Seidman

Saluting the players whose accomplishments will go unrecognized during awards season.

While the postseason is in full bloom, the winners of the regular season awards will be revealed next month. At that juncture some fans will cheer, some will cry, and others will inevitably write articles about how the BBWAA messed up by not voting Justin Morneau as sixth in the AL MVP race, or why James Shields deserves Cy Young consideration because his predictive numbers were much better than his ERA would indicate; as the co-creator of SIERA, I think I can joke about its usage in award voting. I know from experience what it’s like to write such articles, as I once nastily opined that it was a sham how Roy Halladay finished out of the top three on the AL Cy Young Award ballots of some writers in 2008. Then again, even if Cliff Lee deserved the award, how in the world did Halladay fall out of the… never mind, this is no time to dwell.

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October 12, 2010 8:00 am

Playoff Prospectus: Tuesday LDS Game Projection

11

Eric Seidman

Taking at a look at how Game Five should turn out between the Rays and Rangers.

The fourth and final division series will come to a close tonight when the Rays host the Rangers and try to come all the way back from a 2-0 deficit to win the best-of-five series and advance to the American League Championship Series to face the Yankees. The Giants took care of the Braves last night with a 3-2 win in their National League Division Series, ending the managerial career of Bobby Cox. The game provided a touching moment, in which the Giants halted their celebration on the field to deliver a round of applause to the curtain-calling Cox. The legendary manager went out in style, guiding his team to the postseason and getting ejected early in Game Two, both key characteristics of his career.

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