CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Doug Thorburn 

Search Articles by Doug Thorburn

All Blogs

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

05-17

comment icon

11

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, First Quarter
by
Doug Thorburn

05-10

comment icon

3

Raising Aces: Extending the Process
by
Doug Thorburn

05-03

comment icon

29

Raising Aces: Time to Unwind
by
Doug Thorburn

04-30

comment icon

20

Raising Aces: There's Something About Farrell
by
Doug Thorburn

04-26

comment icon

4

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Mat Latos vs. Jeff Samardzija
by
Doug Thorburn

04-24

comment icon

3

Raising Aces: Now Pitching, Bryce Harper
by
Doug Thorburn

04-19

comment icon

5

Raising Aces: Trending: National Grade
by
Doug Thorburn

04-12

comment icon

9

Raising Aces: Jose Fernandez, the Debut Ante
by
Doug Thorburn

04-05

comment icon

2

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Setting the Tone
by
Doug Thorburn

04-04

comment icon

6

BP Unfiltered: Raising Aces: Da Pitching Code
by
Doug Thorburn

03-29

comment icon

13

Raising Aces: Against the Grain
by
Doug Thorburn

03-22

comment icon

16

Raising Aces: Pulling the Pin
by
Doug Thorburn

03-15

comment icon

1

BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 36: Part 2 of SP
by
Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn

03-15

comment icon

15

Raising Aces: Trending: Over the Top
by
Doug Thorburn

03-14

comment icon

23

Covert OPS: How to Make Winning the WBC Worthwhile
by
Doug Thorburn

03-11

comment icon

0

BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 35: Part One of Two
by
Jason Collette, Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn

03-08

comment icon

22

Raising Aces: Under the Gun
by
Doug Thorburn

03-01

comment icon

24

Raising Aces: Over the Radar
by
Doug Thorburn

02-21

comment icon

14

BP Unfiltered: Home Run Rates and Elbow Injuries UPDATED
by
Corey Dawkins, Ben Lindbergh, Harry Pavlidis and Doug Thorburn

02-12

comment icon

7

Arbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Homer Bailey
by
Ian Miller, Doug Thorburn and Ben Lindbergh

02-05

comment icon

14

Arbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Jason Hammel
by
Ian Miller, Doug Thorburn and Ben Lindbergh

02-01

comment icon

11

Raising Aces: Bush League: Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker
by
Doug Thorburn

01-25

comment icon

6

Raising Aces: Revisiting the Good Old Days
by
Doug Thorburn

01-18

comment icon

13

Raising Aces: Then and Now: Giology
by
Doug Thorburn

01-11

comment icon

15

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Roger Clemens
by
Doug Thorburn

01-04

comment icon

4

Raising Aces: Then and Now: It's Good to Be the King
by
Doug Thorburn

12-28

comment icon

2

Raising Aces: The Ghost of Articles Past
by
Doug Thorburn

12-21

comment icon

4

Raising Aces: Making the Grade, Part Two
by
Doug Thorburn

12-14

comment icon

22

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Greg Maddux
by
Doug Thorburn

12-07

comment icon

27

Raising Aces: Making the Grade, Part One
by
Doug Thorburn

11-30

comment icon

13

Raising Aces: On the Other Hand
by
Doug Thorburn

11-16

comment icon

15

Raising Aces: Bush League: Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal
by
Doug Thorburn

11-09

comment icon

8

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Pedro Martinez
by
Doug Thorburn

11-02

comment icon

15

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Randy Johnson
by
Doug Thorburn

10-26

comment icon

23

Raising Aces: Pitchology, Final Exam
by
Doug Thorburn

10-19

comment icon

4

Raising Aces: Bush League: The Power of Bauer
by
Doug Thorburn

10-12

comment icon

8

Raising Aces: Bush League: Gerrit Cole and Danny Hultzen
by
Doug Thorburn

10-05

comment icon

5

Raising Aces: For Those About to Watch (We Salute You)
by
Doug Thorburn

09-28

comment icon

7

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Diagnosing Disappointment
by
Doug Thorburn

09-21

comment icon

7

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: High-K Closers
by
Doug Thorburn

09-14

comment icon

8

Raising Aces: The Man in the Ironic Mask
by
Doug Thorburn

09-07

comment icon

16

Raising Aces: The Ace-Time Continuum
by
Doug Thorburn

08-31

comment icon

16

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Oakland's Aces
by
Doug Thorburn

08-24

comment icon

15

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner
by
Doug Thorburn

08-17

comment icon

6

Raising Aces: Draft Day Deliveries, Part Three
by
Doug Thorburn

08-10

comment icon

6

Raising Aces: Hocking LOOGYs
by
Doug Thorburn

08-03

comment icon

4

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Zack Greinke vs. Jeremy Hellickson
by
Doug Thorburn

07-27

comment icon

18

Raising Aces: Violent Trends
by
Doug Thorburn

07-20

comment icon

4

Raising Aces: Back to the Futures Game, World Team
by
Doug Thorburn

07-13

comment icon

9

Raising Aces: Back to The Futures Game, US Team
by
Doug Thorburn

Go to Archives...

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 11, 2013 5:00 am

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Roger Clemens

15

Doug Thorburn

Regardless of whether the Rocket was clean, his mechanics were a beautiful sight to behold.

In a Hall of Fame class that was chock full of controversy because of chemical enhancements—both proven and suspected—that helped to obfuscate baseball's sacred record book, Roger Clemens stood out as a potentially-tainted hurler in a sea of power bats. His performance record is one of the greatest of all time, with a major-league-record seven Cy Young awards spread over a 24-year career, but the PED cloud that hangs over the Rocket is blocking his ascension to baseball's highest plane. Much like batting doppelganger Barry Bonds, Clemens experienced a tremendous spike in performance at an age when most players are planning their retirement, raising suspicion as to the legitimacy of his numbers.

Clemens was drafted by the Boston Red Sox with the 19th pick of the first round in the 1983 draft, selected out of the University of Texas after having spent some time at the baseball factory of San Jacinto Community College. His minor-league numbers were unfair: an ERA of 1.47 in 208.7 total innings across three levels, with 240 strikeouts against just 38 free passes for a K-to-walk ratio better than six to one, and just five homers allowed. Less than a year after signing with Boston, the right-hander was pitching in the Show.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 4, 2013 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Then and Now: It's Good to Be the King

4

Doug Thorburn

Felix Hernandez has been a phenom for years, but his pitching style has changed significantly since he made it to the majors.

The legend of Felix Hernandez is surprisingly old for an athlete so young. Signed out of Venezuela at the age of 16, King Felix flew through the Mariners system, earning his regal nickname en route to the major leagues and staking his claim to the Safeco Field throne while he was still a teenager. With his combination of elite talent and the work ethic to realize his upside, Hernandez is the ideal pitcher to profile in this first edition of a new series on pitcher development, as we trace his career path “then and now.”

The BP staffers were cautious with ranking the inexperienced right-hander when constructing the Top 50 Prospects list of 2004, eventually leaving him off the list in favor of more seasoned players, but Hernandez would earn redemption in the '05 Annual, receiving the highest pitcher ranking as the number-three overall prospect on the Top 50. King Felix's stay atop the prospect rankings was brief, as he permanently lost his eligibility with a dominant debut that cemented his status as the future of pitching in the Great Northwest. Hernandez’s talent fueled predictions of immediate stardom, as reflected in the following line from his '05 player comment: “He's going to finish in the top three in Cy Young voting in 2006…”

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

December 28, 2012 5:00 am

Raising Aces: The Ghost of Articles Past

2

Doug Thorburn

Doug digs through his back catalog to bring BP readers up to speed on how he got here.

The end of the year is a time for reflection, and a flip of the calendar sparks reminders of past resolutions while we take stock of our goals for the new year.

The year 2012 was my first as a contributor to Baseball Prospectus, following two years in the BP system at Baseball Daily Digest, a subsidiary of the BP brand that was founded by Joe Hamrahi and has since graduated dozens of writers to the big stage. I have learned much during my rookie season with the ballclub, and though my recent two-part series on Making the Grade was a reasonable summary of the campaign, I have found myself thinking back to those days at BDD, remembering the lessons that shaped my work into something that was palatable to the BP audience.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

December 21, 2012 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Making the Grade, Part Two

4

Doug Thorburn

Doug wraps up his visual guide to breaking down pitcher deliveries.

Scouting grades evolve in conjunction with player development, and pitching mechanics in particular can change drastically over time. This is especially true of young players in the minor leagues, who are specifically targeting weak links in their deliveries to address before ascending to the majors. The grades that appear in my mechanics report cards are typically a snapshot of a pitcher's skills, and though some elements can be more pervasive, a player's delivery can also morph throughout the season.

Part One of “Making the Grade” dealt with the first half of the mechanics report card, using visual representations of the 20-80 grades on the scouting scale. The subjects on the report card are arranged in chronological order, following the kinetic chain from the pitcher's first movement through pitch release, and the trio of topics on today's agenda covers the final stages of a pitcher's delivery.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

December 14, 2012 9:31 am

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Greg Maddux

22

Doug Thorburn

Perhaps no modern pitcher has had mechanics, or results, as consistent as Greg Maddux.

The legend of Greg Maddux already has a life of its own, and he has been retired for only four years.  The widely held perception of the bespectacled right-hander centers on his reputation as “the smartest pitcher who ever lived,” and the prevailing wisdom tends to overlook the raw talents that he brought to the mound. Maybe it's the glasses, with the clichéd connection between poor vision and intelligence. It could be the K rate, which hovered around the major-league average through his career, or maybe it was the indelible impression of a 42-year old Maddux retiring massive sluggers with an 85-mph fastball, but this was not a pitcher who survived only on guile while mentally calculating triple-integrals for every pitch thrown.

Maddux's reputation for intelligence was well-earned, as he had a cerebral approach to pitching and advanced knowledge of his craft. Maddux understood the concept of Effective Velocity long before Perry Husband had conducted his extensive research on the subject, thanks to Maddux's recognition of the relationship between pitch location and batter timing. He knew that a hitter had to begin his swing earlier in order to hit the ball squarely on a pitch located up and in, but that the hitter had a longer time to react to a pitch that was low and away. He also followed the words of Warren Spahn, who said, “Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing.”

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

December 7, 2012 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Making the Grade, Part One

27

Doug Thorburn

How does Doug decide what grade to give pitchers on their mechanics report cards? Here's a visual guide.

Grades on the 20-80 scouting scale are subjective by nature. Similarly, the scores that I dole out for the pitching mechanics report cards are based on what my eyes tell me. Each scout sees the player-evaluation world through a unique lens that has been shaped through experience, giving rise to an art of scouting that is rooted in personal observation. The greatest challenge in scouting is also the most fundamental aspect of the process: to convey with words what is seen with the eyes. The grades are only as powerful as the communicative value that the numbers carry, which should be sufficient motivation for an evaluator to be transparent with his process.

I laid the groundwork for the grades in my BP debut, outlining an emphasis on the kinetic chain of movement when pitching a baseball. The chain metaphor signifies the ripple-like influence of the pitching delivery, where a kink in the early links of the chain can lead to inefficiency further down the line. The order of operations is critical within the kinetic chain, and proper sequencing is necessary for peak efficiency, with timing as the key ingredient of the pitching motion.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

November 30, 2012 5:00 am

Raising Aces: On the Other Hand

13

Doug Thorburn

Don't become so fixated on the throwing arm during that time you forget about what's going on with the glove side.

A pitcher's throwing arm is the hardest-working limb on the playing field, so it figures to get all the attention, but the oft-ignored glove-side arm has the potential to either aid the delivery or throw a wrench into the system. The non-throwing arm plays a non-trivial role in mechanical assessment—I have occasionally dropped a reference to a pitcher with a “sloppy glove” or one who “keeps the glove out in front of the body,” but I have yet to go into detail on the topic.

We have covered the basic tenets of Pitchology this season, from balance to momentum and hip-shoulder separation, but today will be an advanced lesson in the theory behind one of the finer elements of pitching mechanics. So if the class will indulge me for a lecture, I'll don the tweed jacket while the rest grab a mitt and meet me on the diamond for a virtual field trip.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

November 16, 2012 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Bush League: Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal

15

Doug Thorburn

If the Cardinals' high-risk rotation needs help in 2013, can they rely on a pair of pitching prospects to plug the holes?

The St. Louis Cardinals have enjoyed a sustained run of success, making the playoffs for the third time in four years in 2012 despite a clubhouse that was missing a couple of Busch Stadium staples. The most glaring omission from the roster was the greatest Cardinal legend since Stan Musial, as Albert Pujols chose to pursue the bigger payday offered by the Angels, leaving the team whose offense he had carried on his shoulders for a decade. Manager Tony La Russa opted to end his career on a high note, retiring from the game following the Cardinals' World Series victory in 2011, and TLR took wingman Dave Duncan along with him to further deplete the coaching staff.

Replacing La Russa was former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny, who shepherded the team past plenty of obstacles throughout the season. Chris Carpenter missed nearly the entire season due to injury, fellow ace Adam Wainwright was inconsistent in his first year pitching after his Tommy John surgery, and southpaw Jaime Garcia dealt with shoulder woes that earned him a summer vacation on the disabled list. Lance Lynn emerged from relative obscurity to spearhead the staff in the first half, but when the dust settled, the best pitcher on the club was Kyle Lohse, the 12-year veteran who entered the season with 4.64 career ERA and is now a free agent.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

November 9, 2012 5:55 am

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Pedro Martinez

8

Doug Thorburn

Pedro's flawless repetition made his unparalleled career possible.

The greatest pitchers of the previous generation were dominant on a historical level, and the peak performance of Pedro Martinez might have been the greatest spectacle that the game has ever witnessed. He may have lacked the longevity of Roger Clemens, the consistency of Greg Maddux, or the biological advantages of Randy Johnson, but Pedro introduced the world to an unrivaled combination of intensity, precision, and power that baffled major-league hitters for over a decade.

Martinez lacked the size of his legendary counterparts, but efficient mechanics and incredible athleticism allowed him to get more out of his sub-six-foot frame than pitchers half a foot taller. His effectiveness was enabled by exceptional command of an explosive array of pitches, and he required ideal efficiency to maximize the impact of his pitching career. One need look no further than Pedro's brother, Ramon Martinez, to conceptualize the difference between raw genetic gifts and athletically-trained ability.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

November 2, 2012 6:03 am

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Randy Johnson

15

Doug Thorburn

Randy Johnson was one of the most dominant pitchers of his or any era, but his peak wouldn't have been possible without continual mechanical tinkering.

I remember reading an article as a college student that described how Randy Johnson had made a mechanical adjustment that allowed the large lefty to extend his release point by more than a foot. The sheer thought of the Big Unit getting 12 inches closer to the plate was equal parts terrifying and fascinating, as physics class had taught me about the advantages inherent in decreasing the distance that the ball travels, ranging from increased perceived velocity to a reduced drag effect on the baseball (I would later learn to appreciate the ripple effect on the timing of pitch-break). The story also marked the first time that I heard the name Tom House, as Johnson had mastered his new techniques through Nolan Ryan and his pitching coach with the Texas Rangers, learning from the man who would be my future mentor in my first exposure to real baseball science.

Johnson’s distinguishing characteristic was his exceptional height: at 6’10”, he was one of the tallest pitchers ever to play in the majors. His height gave him an intrinsic advantage on the mound that is often misunderstood in the mainstream. The plot thickens when one watches his delivery, as Johnson's strategy of slinging the ball from an ultra-low arm slot flies in the face of conventional wisdom, which emphasizes downhill plane. His sidewinder approach was decidedly old-school, harkening back to 12-time strikeout king Walter Johnson, who was known as the hardest thrower of his day and a tireless workhorse who personified the true “ace” label. At 6’1”, Walter was a large human for the early 20th century, and his nickname, “The Big Train,” is essentially a century-old analogue of Randy's “Big Unit” epithet.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 26, 2012 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Pitchology, Final Exam

23

Doug Thorburn

You've been reading Raising Aces all season. Now it's time to put your knowledge to the test.

We’re reached the culmination of the baseball season, having nearly consumed the 2012 textbook, and it’s time to test our knowledge. So let us begin the Final Exam for our Pitchology class.

We have covered a multitude of topics this semester, including mechanics, stuff, and injuries. We have studied a combination of case studies, player comparisons, and some of the theoretical concepts that underlie the mystery of pitching. Please refer to your notes and/or the textbook as you take the exam.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 19, 2012 8:12 am

Raising Aces: Bush League: The Power of Bauer

4

Doug Thorburn

Diamondbacks prospect Trevor Bauer boasts a tantalizing combination of talent and inconsistency.

The “Bush League” series kicked off last week with a review of the top two picks of the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole and Danny Hultzen. This week's edition continues down that historic '11 draft board with a close look at Trevor Bauer, the second UCLA Bruin chosen among those first three picks and the first player from the arm-laden first round to crack the majors.

From the standpoint of a pitching addict, Bauer is one of the more intriguing prospects to come around in quite a while. His appreciation for biomechanics, his commitment to conditioning and physical preparation, and his cerebral approach to his craft are rare qualities to find in a 21-year-old hurler. One need only glance at Bauer's Twitter feed to understand that this is a unique mind on the mound, one whose scientific approach to the game raises the roof of his potential. However, such attention to detail can also be the undoing of a pitcher who can't get out of his own head, placing him at risk of becoming his own worst enemy on the mound.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>