Running in thin air, hidden gems in the desert and Rays shine on the south side
Target: RHB's Evan Longoria 3B ($4100, +110 OPS and +.042 ISO career vs. LHP), Logan Forsythe 1B/2B ($3800, +180 OPS and +.107 ISO career vs. LHP), and Brandon Guyer OF ($3100, +98 OPS and +.048 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Martin Perez ($4200, +86 OPS and +.048 ISO career vs. RHB)
In this week's journal, Doug dives into the game within the game: how to pick opponents
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece detailing one of the hidden aspects of playing DFS on a regular basis: picking your opponents. There are a few pros who dominate the list of competitions, with certain players who seem ready to log into every league or tournament that they see. This is not a problem in the big tournaments, where individuals get lost in a sea of scoring and the object is to beat the collective rather than vanquish an individual, but it is a major issue when it comes to the smaller contests such as head-to-head, three-team, and five-team tournaments. The 10-team leagues are right on the edge, where I keep a look out for certain names but will not be deterred if I recognize one or two players in the contest.
Looking over an expensive slate of pitchers and avoiding knee-jerk assumptions about platoons
Temper: RHB's Yoenis Cespedes OF ($4200, -31 OPS and -.001 ISO career vs. LHP) and Travis d'Arnaud C ($4100, -133 OPS and -.053 ISO vs. LHP), against LHP Jorge de la Rosa ($6600, +151 OPS and +.069 ISO career vs. RHB)
Tigers are trapped on first base, Kazmir continues his dominant run, and strategic platooning in Chicago
Yesterday was a bizarre day of DFS, as a short slate plus monster performances by widely-owned players equaled a six-way tie for first place in the $250k guaranteed Swing for the Fences tournament, with a half-dozen identical lineups from different managers that had to split the $100k first-place prize. Todaty's full slate will help to spread out the ownership of individual players, effectively muting the odds of a repeat scenario in tonight's 61,000-entry, $3 Moonshot tournament.
It's a very light slate today, almost journal-worthy, with just seven games that start at 7:00 pm EST or later. These half-days change the shape of the game a bit due to the shallow player pool, as it becomes more likely that the highest-end arms and bats will be owned by a larger portion of managers given the few options that exist to spread out the ownership. This isn't much of a problem in cash games, but in order to succeed in the GPP a player might want to stand out by looking in areas that are often ignored. It's also an interesting slate for platoon splits as it's raining southpaws tonight, with eight of the 14 starting pitchers who are scheduled to start hail from the port side of the mound.
His prospect stock has seemingly plummeted, but is Gray really worse off now than he was four months ago?
I have been gushing about Gray since he was drafted, and perhaps more impressive than his track record on draft day was the level of improvement within months of the selection. Gray relied mostly on his high-90's fastball and exploding slider while in college, but the Rockies made the refinement of his changeup a focal point in his development. Mandating that he use the pitch in games, the cambio quickly evolved from a theoretically mid-range grade into a pitch that misses bats and fools hitters with deceptive arm speed. Gray was ranked as the 13th overall prospect by the BP crew prior to the season, but his ranking has plummeted since and the right-hander fell off the Mid-season list of Top 50 prospects.
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A day chock-full of big arms, southpaw exploitation, and the occasional underpriced rookie
There are so many awesome pitchers today that I am overwhelmed and will be compelled to setup at least a half-dozen unique lineups for tonight's $3 Moonshot tournament on DraftKings ($140k guaranteed). There are seven pitchers over the $10k mark for cost, each of whom has the track record of performance to justify that cost, as opposed to yesterday's high roller's club that struggled to meet their expenses based purely on merit. Eddie Izzard once said, “We can't all do big arms, we'll look like a squadron of spitfires,” but today's menu includes so many high-end pitching options that the DFS sky will be swarming with spitfires tonight.
Grichuk establishes his presence with authority, stopping the steals with Johnny Beisbol, and fading the fading the Pads
Temper: RHB's Maikel Franco 3B ($4300, +219 OPS and +.064 ISO career vs. LHP), Jeff Francoeur OF ($2600, +87 OPS and +.026 ISO vs. LHP), and switch-hitter Cesar Hernandez 2B/SS ($3000, +95 OPS and -.007 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Brett Anderson ($6700, +50 OPS and -.026 ISO career vs. RHB)
Splitting Liriano, targeting an age-old matchup, and the bell tolls in Chicago
Target: LHB's Preston Tucker OF ($3600, +381 OPS and +.241 ISO vs. RHP), Jason Castro C ($3200, +186 OPS and +.073 ISO vs. RHP), Colby Rasmus OF ($4000, +131 OPS and +.061 ISO vs. RHP) and Luis Valbuena 2B/3B ($3800, +30 OPS and +.019 ISO career vs. RHP), against RHP Colby Lewis ($7700, +95 OPS and +.006 ISO vs. LHB)
A trade deadline that promises Baltimore fireworks, a Pirate lacks plunder, and the shine fades from an ace
Trades will steal the headlines today and the flurry of activity means that some everyday players will be in transit between ballclubs rather than on the field, so be sure to double-check lineups as they get close to lock.