After playing nine of their first 12 games away from home, the Rockies return to the launching pad with an 8-5 record and the third-highest run total in the National League. I expected the player prices to skyrocket in light of their recent success, the cozy venue, and the huge swings that were imposed upon the values of Rockies players last weekend. However, the market has adjusted, and though some players are still getting a hefty boost via context adjustments (e.g. Matt Kemp at $5400, facing a lefty in Coors), the high end is not priced as aggressively as they were last week; Mike Trout tops the hitters at $5900.
Doug expects Kris Bryant ownership to be supersaturated and wonders if Prince's power will return
Admit it: Kris Bryant is in your DFS roster today. You even jumped into an all-day tourney just so that you could get his ballgame in this morning. This game is supposed to be fun, damn it, so treat yourself to some rookie magic if you feel so inclined. Just be aware that he will probably be heavily owned today, as it's the natural cost of popularity.
Issues with pitch usage and command have led to a rough start for Taijuan Walker.
Anticipation was high for Taijuan Walker's first start of the 2015 season, following an injury-riddled 2014 campaign and an absolutely dominant spring. His line from spring training included just two earned runs allowed across a ridiculous 27 innings of work (seven games). He struck out 26 batters and walked only five, with just 10 hits allowed and a pair of solo homers accounting for the only runs. His raw stuff includes velocity in the mid-90s, a cutter and a hard changeup that both register in the high 80s to low 90s, and the occasional curveball that drops down to the mid-70s on the velo scale. His mechanics have received solid ratings from yours truly in the past, including an overall grade of B- in the 2015 SP Guide, which combined with the hard stuff to raise the optimism surrounding his first start.
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A look at recent changes to the market prices on Draft Kings, and making adjustments in the face of adversity
It's Thursday, which means that teams are traveling, the schedule is light (there are only six games on the slate), and that it's time to take a break from the standard format at Fantasy Rounders to reflect on the DFS game at large.
It's raining southpaws on today's slate, opening the vault of platoon madness
Some refer to this date on the calendar as “Tax Day,” but around these parts April 15th stands for celebration, not consternation. Today we celebrate Jackie Robinson Day, in recognition of the man whose game-changing ability and competitive tenacity in the face of overwhelming challenges forever altered the baseball landscape. Robinson laid the groundwork for the culturally diverse environment that we enjoy today, and for that I owe a debt of gratitude.
Aces are chewed up and spit out, so we try to step between the raindrops that melt DFS point totals
Early-season grenades have blown up the stat lines of some of the game's top arms, including Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Zimmermann, and Madison Bumgarner. Add Jon Lester to the list after yesterday's six-run shellacking, an outing that stung DFS gamers who saw the left-hander as a safe choice due to: A) his being one of the top pitchers taking the hill that day, B) his having the massive platoon advantage against Cincy sluggers Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and C) his facing a depleted lineup that was without Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton.
Sometimes home/road splits matter outside of Denver...
Opening Week has come and gone, and the craziness of week one was equal parts small-sample expectancy and player-adjustment reality. It served as yet another reminder that these players are not robots, and there is no evidence like the field of play. It also served as a reminder of the volatility inherent in the season's first week, and that a single start of in-game evaluation can sometimes carry more weight than an entire off-season full of post hoc analysis.
A caution against blindly following the dollar signs...
Opening Week has been full of landmines, as gamers try to dodge Mother Nature as well as epic pitcher blow-ups (“Kendall Graveman, come on down! You're the next contestant on the Price is Wrong!”). Roles are starting to get defined on individual teams but the statistics are still a random labyrinth, and though it will be awhile before the numbers begin to stabilize, the prices on Draft Kings are taking wide swings as new data enters the system. The landscape of the market has changed dramatically in the past 24 hours, opening up a new gateway through which to extrapolate value.
A look at how some intriguing arms were throwing this week and some mechanical issues or trends to keep an eye out the rest of the way.
Baseball is finally here, and I couldn't be happier. A winter of hibernation can now give way to a summer of over-analysis, and the Opening Week of the 2015 baseball season has laid the groundwork with a great deal of intrigue on the mound. Let's take a look at some of the pitching highlights of the season's first turn through the rotation.
The DFS slate is full of intrigue frought with peril.
The rain took down Cardinals-Cubs yesterday, so we'll be treated to an early-day reboot of Lance Lynn versus Jake Arrieta at Wrigley Field (weather permitting). Mat Latos was an absolute homewrecker, surrendering seven earned runs against the hapless Braves without escaping the first frame. His performance was worth -17.3 points on Draft Kings, dooming the 26.2% of owners that rostered him in the $100K Moonshot (including yours truly). Such an implosion takes an added emphasis on a short day like Tuesday, particularly one with little money available for arms, as the top bats were all widely owned and there was less opportunity to make up ground. Today is a much fuller slate (13 games start at 7:05 pm EST or later), so I'm looking forward to the roster flexibility.
With a half-slate of games on the schedule, Mother Nature is threatening to further trim the player pool
Opening Day was jam-packed with excitement, not to mention monster point totals in DFS from jump-starters Hanley Ramirez (36 points), Nolan Arenado (34), and Dustin Pedroia (31). On the mound, there were feats of dominance from all over the pricing scale (David Price, Sonny Gray, Clay Buchholz). Folks who stacked the lineup with heavy-hitting Brewers against theoretical punching bag Kyle Kendrick were sorely disappointed, as Kendrick blanked the Brew Crew for seven frames while the expensive trio of Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and Jonathan Lucroy went a combined 0-for-10 with five strikeouts. The Rockies bats went nuts on the road, Tanaka got shelled, up was down, day was night, and in his first plate appearance of the season Mike Trout took King Felix yard. What more could a Baseballholic ask for?