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Doug Thorburn 

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05-04

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Fantasy Rounders: Surveying the Landscape
by
Doug Thorburn

05-04

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2

Raising Aces: Postmortem: Chris Sale vs. the Minnesota Twins
by
Doug Thorburn

05-01

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Fantasy Rounders: Yard Sale
by
Doug Thorburn

04-30

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Fantasy Rounders: Under Construction
by
Doug Thorburn

04-29

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Fantasy Rounders: Scooby Doo Gets #Weird
by
Doug Thorburn

04-28

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Fantasy Rounders: Two Sides of the Schwartz
by
Doug Thorburn

04-27

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Fantasy Rounders: Don't Rain on My Paredes
by
Doug Thorburn

04-24

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Fantasy Rounders: Go Big or Go Home
by
Doug Thorburn

04-24

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4

Raising Aces: Debut Ante: Raisel Iglesias
by
Doug Thorburn

04-23

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Fantasy Rounders: The Thin Red Line
by
Doug Thorburn

04-22

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Fantasy Rounders: Take Five
by
Doug Thorburn

04-21

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Fantasy Rounders: The Catcher Curse Continues
by
Doug Thorburn

04-20

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4

Fantasy Rounders: The Coors Stack Strikes Back
by
Doug Thorburn

04-17

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5

Fantasy Rounders: Rookie Distractions
by
Doug Thorburn

04-17

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1

Raising Aces: Walker on the Wild Side
by
Doug Thorburn

04-16

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7

Fantasy Rounders: The Price of Context
by
Doug Thorburn

04-15

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Fantasy Rounders: Left In
by
Doug Thorburn

04-14

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Fantasy Rounders: Another One Bites the Dust
by
Doug Thorburn

04-13

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3

Fantasy Rounders: Home is Where the Heart is
by
Doug Thorburn

04-10

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Fantasy Rounders: What a Relief It Is
by
Doug Thorburn

04-10

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7

Raising Aces: Mechanical Notes from Opening Week
by
Doug Thorburn

04-09

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Fantasy Rounders: No Whammy
by
Doug Thorburn

04-08

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Fantasy Rounders: Hello Again
by
Doug Thorburn

04-07

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4

Fantasy Rounders: Run for Cover
by
Doug Thorburn

04-06

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Raising Aces: Pitching Trident: Downers
by
Doug Thorburn

04-06

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4

Fantasy Rounders: An Opening Day Salvo
by
Doug Thorburn

03-27

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8

Raising Aces: Pitching Trident: Uppers
by
Doug Thorburn

03-20

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Raising Aces: Auditing the Mechanics Report Card
by
Doug Thorburn

03-18

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4

Every Team's Moneyball: San Diego Padres: Payroll Tetris
by
Doug Thorburn

03-13

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4

Raising Aces: Over the Radar 3.0
by
Doug Thorburn

03-09

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The BP Wayback Machine: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner
by
Doug Thorburn

03-06

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11

Raising Aces: Under the Gun 3.0
by
Doug Thorburn

02-27

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14

Raising Aces: The Eyes of March
by
Doug Thorburn

02-25

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13

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting PItchers, Part Two
by
Doug Thorburn

02-23

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21

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pitchers, Part One
by
Doug Thorburn

02-11

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Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

02-06

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10

Raising Aces: Trailblazers of Funk
by
Doug Thorburn

02-03

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35

Raising Aces: Grading the Funk
by
Doug Thorburn

01-23

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14

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-20

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11

Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

01-16

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8

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-09

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19

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL Central
by
Doug Thorburn

01-07

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5

Prospect Mechanics
by
Ryan Parker and Doug Thorburn

12-31

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7

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL Central
by
Doug Thorburn

12-19

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4

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL West
by
Doug Thorburn

12-09

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1

Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

12-05

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7

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL West
by
Doug Thorburn

11-26

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6

Prospect Mechanics
by
Ryan Parker and Doug Thorburn

11-21

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Raising Aces: Free Agent Pitchers: The Top Tier
by
Doug Thorburn

11-11

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8

Prospect Mechanics
by
Ryan Parker and Doug Thorburn

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The Rockie Shuffle is back in play...

After playing nine of their first 12 games away from home, the Rockies return to the launching pad with an 8-5 record and the third-highest run total in the National League. I expected the player prices to skyrocket in light of their recent success, the cozy venue, and the huge swings that were imposed upon the values of Rockies players last weekend. However, the market has adjusted, and though some players are still getting a hefty boost via context adjustments (e.g. Matt Kemp at $5400, facing a lefty in Coors), the high end is not priced as aggressively as they were last week; Mike Trout tops the hitters at $5900.

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Doug expects Kris Bryant ownership to be supersaturated and wonders if Prince's power will return

Admit it: Kris Bryant is in your DFS roster today. You even jumped into an all-day tourney just so that you could get his ballgame in this morning. This game is supposed to be fun, damn it, so treat yourself to some rookie magic if you feel so inclined. Just be aware that he will probably be heavily owned today, as it's the natural cost of popularity.

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April 17, 2015 9:11 am

Raising Aces: Walker on the Wild Side

1

Doug Thorburn

Issues with pitch usage and command have led to a rough start for Taijuan Walker.

Anticipation was high for Taijuan Walker's first start of the 2015 season, following an injury-riddled 2014 campaign and an absolutely dominant spring. His line from spring training included just two earned runs allowed across a ridiculous 27 innings of work (seven games). He struck out 26 batters and walked only five, with just 10 hits allowed and a pair of solo homers accounting for the only runs. His raw stuff includes velocity in the mid-90s, a cutter and a hard changeup that both register in the high 80s to low 90s, and the occasional curveball that drops down to the mid-70s on the velo scale. His mechanics have received solid ratings from yours truly in the past, including an overall grade of B- in the 2015 SP Guide, which combined with the hard stuff to raise the optimism surrounding his first start.

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A look at recent changes to the market prices on Draft Kings, and making adjustments in the face of adversity

It's Thursday, which means that teams are traveling, the schedule is light (there are only six games on the slate), and that it's time to take a break from the standard format at Fantasy Rounders to reflect on the DFS game at large.

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It's raining southpaws on today's slate, opening the vault of platoon madness

Some refer to this date on the calendar as “Tax Day,” but around these parts April 15th stands for celebration, not consternation. Today we celebrate Jackie Robinson Day, in recognition of the man whose game-changing ability and competitive tenacity in the face of overwhelming challenges forever altered the baseball landscape. Robinson laid the groundwork for the culturally diverse environment that we enjoy today, and for that I owe a debt of gratitude.

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Aces are chewed up and spit out, so we try to step between the raindrops that melt DFS point totals

Early-season grenades have blown up the stat lines of some of the game's top arms, including Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Zimmermann, and Madison Bumgarner. Add Jon Lester to the list after yesterday's six-run shellacking, an outing that stung DFS gamers who saw the left-hander as a safe choice due to: A) his being one of the top pitchers taking the hill that day, B) his having the massive platoon advantage against Cincy sluggers Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and C) his facing a depleted lineup that was without Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton.

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Sometimes home/road splits matter outside of Denver...

Opening Week has come and gone, and the craziness of week one was equal parts small-sample expectancy and player-adjustment reality. It served as yet another reminder that these players are not robots, and there is no evidence like the field of play. It also served as a reminder of the volatility inherent in the season's first week, and that a single start of in-game evaluation can sometimes carry more weight than an entire off-season full of post hoc analysis.

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A caution against blindly following the dollar signs...

Opening Week has been full of landmines, as gamers try to dodge Mother Nature as well as epic pitcher blow-ups (“Kendall Graveman, come on down! You're the next contestant on the Price is Wrong!”). Roles are starting to get defined on individual teams but the statistics are still a random labyrinth, and though it will be awhile before the numbers begin to stabilize, the prices on Draft Kings are taking wide swings as new data enters the system. The landscape of the market has changed dramatically in the past 24 hours, opening up a new gateway through which to extrapolate value.

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April 10, 2015 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Mechanical Notes from Opening Week

7

Doug Thorburn

A look at how some intriguing arms were throwing this week and some mechanical issues or trends to keep an eye out the rest of the way.

Baseball is finally here, and I couldn't be happier. A winter of hibernation can now give way to a summer of over-analysis, and the Opening Week of the 2015 baseball season has laid the groundwork with a great deal of intrigue on the mound. Let's take a look at some of the pitching highlights of the season's first turn through the rotation.

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Doug takes a step back from the grind to reflect on the Opening Week of DFS

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The DFS slate is full of intrigue frought with peril.

The rain took down Cardinals-Cubs yesterday, so we'll be treated to an early-day reboot of Lance Lynn versus Jake Arrieta at Wrigley Field (weather permitting). Mat Latos was an absolute homewrecker, surrendering seven earned runs against the hapless Braves without escaping the first frame. His performance was worth -17.3 points on Draft Kings, dooming the 26.2% of owners that rostered him in the $100K Moonshot (including yours truly). Such an implosion takes an added emphasis on a short day like Tuesday, particularly one with little money available for arms, as the top bats were all widely owned and there was less opportunity to make up ground. Today is a much fuller slate (13 games start at 7:05 pm EST or later), so I'm looking forward to the roster flexibility.

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With a half-slate of games on the schedule, Mother Nature is threatening to further trim the player pool

Opening Day was jam-packed with excitement, not to mention monster point totals in DFS from jump-starters Hanley Ramirez (36 points), Nolan Arenado (34), and Dustin Pedroia (31). On the mound, there were feats of dominance from all over the pricing scale (David Price, Sonny Gray, Clay Buchholz). Folks who stacked the lineup with heavy-hitting Brewers against theoretical punching bag Kyle Kendrick were sorely disappointed, as Kendrick blanked the Brew Crew for seven frames while the expensive trio of Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and Jonathan Lucroy went a combined 0-for-10 with five strikeouts. The Rockies bats went nuts on the road, Tanaka got shelled, up was down, day was night, and in his first plate appearance of the season Mike Trout took King Felix yard. What more could a Baseballholic ask for?

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