Staring at a full slate of games, we break down some of the big guns in DFS today
Today is a day that is full of interesting options, from high-upside arms to big bats, so it's useful to know which of the high-priced players has a couple of weights pulling down his stock. There are so many quality arms that I felt compelled to go with two lineups today; there are some impact players on the agenda, so we'll break down a few of those high-priced targets whose stock might be further impacted by recent context.
Doug carries out a plan and reflects on market stability in his weekly reflection.
Welcome to another Thursday edition of Fantasy Rounders, in which I take a step back from the competition to survey the wreckage and dive into the finer points of the DFS game. Following a rough start to the season, my takeaway from last week was that I needed to reel back the daily investments while I re-calibrated for the 2015 season, and I stuck to said plan by investing just $18 to $33 for each of the next five days. My goal was to let everything settle down while I focused on individual player value for the current time window, and the lowered stakes allowed for some extra freedom for experimentation when constructing lineups.
Doug laments the loss of another backstop and surveys a day with low-grade SP's plus lots of southpaws
Entering gameplay on Monday, the list of busted backstops already included Matt Wieters, Yan Gomes, Devin Mesoraco, and Travis d'Arnaud. Now add Jonathan Lucroy to the list. Catcher is the toughest position on the field, and they are vulnerable to a much greater number of dings and dents than any other player.
After playing nine of their first 12 games away from home, the Rockies return to the launching pad with an 8-5 record and the third-highest run total in the National League. I expected the player prices to skyrocket in light of their recent success, the cozy venue, and the huge swings that were imposed upon the values of Rockies players last weekend. However, the market has adjusted, and though some players are still getting a hefty boost via context adjustments (e.g. Matt Kemp at $5400, facing a lefty in Coors), the high end is not priced as aggressively as they were last week; Mike Trout tops the hitters at $5900.
Doug expects Kris Bryant ownership to be supersaturated and wonders if Prince's power will return
Admit it: Kris Bryant is in your DFS roster today. You even jumped into an all-day tourney just so that you could get his ballgame in this morning. This game is supposed to be fun, damn it, so treat yourself to some rookie magic if you feel so inclined. Just be aware that he will probably be heavily owned today, as it's the natural cost of popularity.
Issues with pitch usage and command have led to a rough start for Taijuan Walker.
Anticipation was high for Taijuan Walker's first start of the 2015 season, following an injury-riddled 2014 campaign and an absolutely dominant spring. His line from spring training included just two earned runs allowed across a ridiculous 27 innings of work (seven games). He struck out 26 batters and walked only five, with just 10 hits allowed and a pair of solo homers accounting for the only runs. His raw stuff includes velocity in the mid-90s, a cutter and a hard changeup that both register in the high 80s to low 90s, and the occasional curveball that drops down to the mid-70s on the velo scale. His mechanics have received solid ratings from yours truly in the past, including an overall grade of B- in the 2015 SP Guide, which combined with the hard stuff to raise the optimism surrounding his first start.
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A look at recent changes to the market prices on Draft Kings, and making adjustments in the face of adversity
It's Thursday, which means that teams are traveling, the schedule is light (there are only six games on the slate), and that it's time to take a break from the standard format at Fantasy Rounders to reflect on the DFS game at large.
It's raining southpaws on today's slate, opening the vault of platoon madness
Some refer to this date on the calendar as “Tax Day,” but around these parts April 15th stands for celebration, not consternation. Today we celebrate Jackie Robinson Day, in recognition of the man whose game-changing ability and competitive tenacity in the face of overwhelming challenges forever altered the baseball landscape. Robinson laid the groundwork for the culturally diverse environment that we enjoy today, and for that I owe a debt of gratitude.
Aces are chewed up and spit out, so we try to step between the raindrops that melt DFS point totals
Early-season grenades have blown up the stat lines of some of the game's top arms, including Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Zimmermann, and Madison Bumgarner. Add Jon Lester to the list after yesterday's six-run shellacking, an outing that stung DFS gamers who saw the left-hander as a safe choice due to: A) his being one of the top pitchers taking the hill that day, B) his having the massive platoon advantage against Cincy sluggers Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and C) his facing a depleted lineup that was without Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton.
Sometimes home/road splits matter outside of Denver...
Opening Week has come and gone, and the craziness of week one was equal parts small-sample expectancy and player-adjustment reality. It served as yet another reminder that these players are not robots, and there is no evidence like the field of play. It also served as a reminder of the volatility inherent in the season's first week, and that a single start of in-game evaluation can sometimes carry more weight than an entire off-season full of post hoc analysis.