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Doug Thorburn 

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03-27

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4

Raising Aces: Pitching Trident: Uppers
by
Doug Thorburn

03-20

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2

Raising Aces: Auditing the Mechanics Report Card
by
Doug Thorburn

03-18

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4

Every Team's Moneyball: San Diego Padres: Payroll Tetris
by
Doug Thorburn

03-13

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4

Raising Aces: Over the Radar 3.0
by
Doug Thorburn

03-09

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner
by
Doug Thorburn

03-06

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11

Raising Aces: Under the Gun 3.0
by
Doug Thorburn

02-27

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14

Raising Aces: The Eyes of March
by
Doug Thorburn

02-25

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13

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting PItchers, Part Two
by
Doug Thorburn

02-23

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20

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pitchers, Part One
by
Doug Thorburn

02-11

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1

Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

02-06

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10

Raising Aces: Trailblazers of Funk
by
Doug Thorburn

02-03

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35

Raising Aces: Grading the Funk
by
Doug Thorburn

01-23

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14

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-20

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11

Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

01-16

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8

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-09

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19

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL Central
by
Doug Thorburn

01-07

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5

Prospect Mechanics
by
Ryan Parker and Doug Thorburn

12-31

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7

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL Central
by
Doug Thorburn

12-19

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4

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL West
by
Doug Thorburn

12-09

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1

Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

12-05

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7

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL West
by
Doug Thorburn

11-26

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6

Prospect Mechanics
by
Ryan Parker and Doug Thorburn

11-21

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0

Raising Aces: Free Agent Pitchers: The Top Tier
by
Doug Thorburn

11-11

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8

Prospect Mechanics
by
Ryan Parker and Doug Thorburn

11-10

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4

Raising Aces: Partners in Crime: The Long Home Runs of 2014
by
Doug Thorburn

10-31

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11

Raising Aces: Bum Deal
by
Doug Thorburn

10-24

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2

Raising Aces: Ghosts of World Series Past
by
Doug Thorburn

10-17

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2

Raising Aces: Brandon Finnegan, the Debut Ante
by
Doug Thorburn

10-15

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Karmic Kickback: NLCS Game 3
by
Doug Thorburn

10-14

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3

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Three Previews
by
Sahadev Sharma and Doug Thorburn

10-14

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13

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, Reliever Edition
by
Doug Thorburn

10-07

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6

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Tuesday Previews
by
Sahadev Sharma and Doug Thorburn

10-07

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4

Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Three Recap: The Bunt Heard 'Round the World
by
Doug Thorburn

10-04

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1

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Two Previews
by
Doug Thorburn and Sahadev Sharma

10-04

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0

Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game One Recap: Giants 3, Nationals 2
by
Doug Thorburn

10-03

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0

Raising Aces: Daniel Norris, the Debut Ante
by
Doug Thorburn

10-03

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5

Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Preview: Nationals vs. Giants
by
Mike Gianella and Doug Thorburn

10-03

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7

Playoff Prospectus: Baseball Nirvana Game Previews
by
Sahadev Sharma, Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella, Doug Thorburn and J.P. Breen

09-30

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16

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot
by
Doug Thorburn

09-19

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3

Raising Aces: Carlos in Charge
by
Doug Thorburn

09-12

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2

Raising Aces: Angelic Arms
by
Doug Thorburn

09-05

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3

Raising Aces: Cub Replacement Level
by
Doug Thorburn

08-29

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1

Raising Aces: Mis-Priced
by
Doug Thorburn

08-22

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7

Raising Aces: Police and Thieves
by
Doug Thorburn

08-15

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14

Raising Aces: Have Pitch Counts Gone Too Far?
by
Doug Thorburn

08-08

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6

Raising Aces: The Road to Recovery
by
Doug Thorburn

08-01

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3

Raising Aces: The Rabbit Hole
by
Doug Thorburn

07-25

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6

Raising Aces: Shelby Miller's Fall From Grace
by
Doug Thorburn

07-18

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1

Raising Aces: Outta Nowhere
by
Doug Thorburn

07-11

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2

Raising Aces: Breakout Breakdown: Corey Kluber and Garrett Richards
by
Doug Thorburn

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March 27, 2015 7:46 am

Raising Aces: Pitching Trident: Uppers

4

Doug Thorburn

The author takes a look at pitchers he has ranked higher than their average draft position.

I like to take a three-pronged approach to pitcher evaluation, following the process-outcome train through stations of mechanics, stuff, and stats. The numbers steal the focus during fantasy draft season, but my personal rankings are heavily influenced by the other two prongs of the trident. Mechanics will sway me (big surprise), but a pitcher's delivery typically needs to be paired with great stuff to cause a real boost in the ranks, and sometimes a pitcher is one small piece away from making that next leap in performance.

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March 20, 2015 9:37 am

Raising Aces: Auditing the Mechanics Report Card

2

Doug Thorburn

Our resident pitching mechanics' expert takes a look at whether he has any tendencies when handing out grades.

An underlying tenet of sabermetrics—hell, of all science—is to continually ask questions, to follow-up on previous research, and to continue to update the analytic paradigm. Accountability is paramount, and though showing proof of one's work can present a humbling burden that forces the confrontation of potential holes in the system, here at Raising Aces we make it a point to have a transparent process that ups the communicative value of pitching evaluation.

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Building an 84-win team with $93 million.

Every day until Opening Day, Baseball Prospectus authors will preview two teams—one from the AL, one from the NL—identifying strategies those teams employ to gain an advantage. Today: the payroll artists Houston Astros and San Diego Padres.

Previous team previews: Giants | Royals | Dodgers | Rays



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March 13, 2015 9:18 am

Raising Aces: Over the Radar 3.0

4

Doug Thorburn

A look at the arms who have had a velocity jump over the last couple years.

We looked at the players who have been skiing down the slopes of velocity last week, and this time we turn 180 degrees to the pitchers who are fighting the gravity of age with increased velocity.

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Two of the best young lefties in the game faced off. Doug broke it down.

In summer 2012, when Clayton Kershaw had just one Cy Young award and Madison Bumgarner had just one World Series ring, Doug Thorburn anticipated what has become a tremendous rivalry--if not to them, certainly to us. Two exceptional lefties in one of sports' best team-against-team rivalries, each under contract to his team through the end of this decade, each accomplished in a way no other current pitcher can claim. Thorburn's breakdown helps appreciate the similarities, the differences, and what sets each pitcher apart from his peers. This originally ran on Aug. 24, 2012.

Clayton Kershaw dominated the rival Giants last season, going 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA and a 49:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts and 42 innings, including a perfect four-for-four in head-to-head battles with San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum. Kershaw has held the Giants to a sub-2.00 ERA again in 2012, though he had come up on the short end of the decision in two of his three starts against them to Monday's match-up with Madison Bumgarner. It was the first meeting for two young southpaws who will likely be dueling out west for years to come.

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March 6, 2015 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Under the Gun 3.0

11

Doug Thorburn

A look at the pitchers who have seen a downtick in velocity over the last few years.

It's that time of year again, where we look back at the pitcher velocity trends of yesteryear to see if we can glean anything about the upcoming season. I'm a bad-news-first kinda guy, so we'll kick off the series by looking at those pitchers who are on the downslope of velocity over the last few years before heading over to the sunnier side of the hill. I also admit to having a side agenda in the form of a theory regarding velocity decline and pitchers who engage extra spine-tilt, an element that has been considered in each of the previous renditions of Under the Gun and which will make another appearance before we are done here today.

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February 27, 2015 6:00 am

Raising Aces: The Eyes of March

14

Doug Thorburn

Which pitchers to watch and what to look for this spring.

Much digital ink has been spilled over the beauty behind the four words that ignite the spring for a Baseballholic: pitchers and catchers report. But it's a tease, because after pitchers and catchers report to spring training we are left with two weeks worth of recycled stories about players who are or aren't in the best shape of their lives. The spring doesn't begin in earnest until ballgames are being played in March, with the first slate on tap to begin next week.

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February 25, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting PItchers, Part Two

13

Doug Thorburn

2014 breakout performer Collin McHugh leads off the second part of the list.

Previous articles in this series:

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February 23, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pitchers, Part One

20

Doug Thorburn

Sizing up the top 50 arms from now through the end of the 2017 season.

We can take the typical aging curves of position players and throw them out the window for the pitchers, whose performance over time follows a far less predictable pattern, though birth dates did come into consideration on the extreme ends of the age scale. Expect a mechanics bend in these evaluations, as a pitcher's physical baselines take on added importance when looking at the multi-year landscape—well, that and the fact that I can't help but notice this stuff, since mechanics are kinda my thing. Many of the pitchers within individual tiers also share a common thread, a reflection of drafting tactics as well as the situational dynamics of the fantasy game.

Some of these rankings will deviate from convention, and I welcome feedback and/or discourse in the comments section.

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February 11, 2015 6:00 am

Prospect Mechanics

1

Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

The mechanics of some of the top pitching and hitting prospects in the AL West are broken down.

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February 6, 2015 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Trailblazers of Funk

10

Doug Thorburn

After breaking down some of the funkier deliveries in baseball history, we now take a look back at those who were the original bringers of funk.

In the previous edition of Raising Aces, we attempted to establish a grading system for pitcher funk, and this week we look at how some of that funk has translated across time and cultures. A key ingredient to funk is novelty, but what might seem novel to the modern observer might actually have been commonplace 60 years ago, and the techniques that are common in specific areas across the globe might be considered uncommon here in the States. So let's dive into some of the specific forms of funk that have appeared multiple times in the major leagues, and see if we can attach a grade that teases out some of the contextual factors.

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February 3, 2015 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Grading the Funk

35

Doug Thorburn

Some of the odder deliveries in the history of baseball are broken down.

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