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Doug Thorburn 

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05-24

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1

Raising Aces: Splitting the Platoon: Lefty-Phobic Pitchers
by
Doug Thorburn

05-23

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0

TINSTAAPP: TINSTAAPP Episode 4: Verlander v. Darvish
by
Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn

05-22

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13

Raising Aces: This Justin
by
Doug Thorburn

05-17

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12

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, First Quarter
by
Doug Thorburn

05-10

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3

Raising Aces: Extending the Process
by
Doug Thorburn

05-03

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29

Raising Aces: Time to Unwind
by
Doug Thorburn

04-30

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20

Raising Aces: There's Something About Farrell
by
Doug Thorburn

04-26

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4

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Mat Latos vs. Jeff Samardzija
by
Doug Thorburn

04-24

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3

Raising Aces: Now Pitching, Bryce Harper
by
Doug Thorburn

04-19

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5

Raising Aces: Trending: National Grade
by
Doug Thorburn

04-12

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9

Raising Aces: Jose Fernandez, the Debut Ante
by
Doug Thorburn

04-05

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2

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Setting the Tone
by
Doug Thorburn

04-04

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6

BP Unfiltered: Raising Aces: Da Pitching Code
by
Doug Thorburn

03-29

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13

Raising Aces: Against the Grain
by
Doug Thorburn

03-22

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16

Raising Aces: Pulling the Pin
by
Doug Thorburn

03-15

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1

BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 36: Part 2 of SP
by
Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn

03-15

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15

Raising Aces: Trending: Over the Top
by
Doug Thorburn

03-14

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23

Covert OPS: How to Make Winning the WBC Worthwhile
by
Doug Thorburn

03-11

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0

BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 35: Part One of Two
by
Jason Collette, Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn

03-08

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22

Raising Aces: Under the Gun
by
Doug Thorburn

03-01

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24

Raising Aces: Over the Radar
by
Doug Thorburn

02-21

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14

BP Unfiltered: Home Run Rates and Elbow Injuries UPDATED
by
Corey Dawkins, Ben Lindbergh, Harry Pavlidis and Doug Thorburn

02-12

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7

Arbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Homer Bailey
by
Ian Miller, Doug Thorburn and Ben Lindbergh

02-05

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14

Arbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Jason Hammel
by
Ian Miller, Doug Thorburn and Ben Lindbergh

02-01

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11

Raising Aces: Bush League: Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker
by
Doug Thorburn

01-25

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6

Raising Aces: Revisiting the Good Old Days
by
Doug Thorburn

01-18

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13

Raising Aces: Then and Now: Giology
by
Doug Thorburn

01-11

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15

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Roger Clemens
by
Doug Thorburn

01-04

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4

Raising Aces: Then and Now: It's Good to Be the King
by
Doug Thorburn

12-28

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2

Raising Aces: The Ghost of Articles Past
by
Doug Thorburn

12-21

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4

Raising Aces: Making the Grade, Part Two
by
Doug Thorburn

12-14

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22

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Greg Maddux
by
Doug Thorburn

12-07

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27

Raising Aces: Making the Grade, Part One
by
Doug Thorburn

11-30

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13

Raising Aces: On the Other Hand
by
Doug Thorburn

11-16

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15

Raising Aces: Bush League: Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal
by
Doug Thorburn

11-09

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8

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Pedro Martinez
by
Doug Thorburn

11-02

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15

Raising Aces: The Good Old Days: Randy Johnson
by
Doug Thorburn

10-26

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23

Raising Aces: Pitchology, Final Exam
by
Doug Thorburn

10-19

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4

Raising Aces: Bush League: The Power of Bauer
by
Doug Thorburn

10-12

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8

Raising Aces: Bush League: Gerrit Cole and Danny Hultzen
by
Doug Thorburn

10-05

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5

Raising Aces: For Those About to Watch (We Salute You)
by
Doug Thorburn

09-28

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7

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Diagnosing Disappointment
by
Doug Thorburn

09-21

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7

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: High-K Closers
by
Doug Thorburn

09-14

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8

Raising Aces: The Man in the Ironic Mask
by
Doug Thorburn

09-07

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16

Raising Aces: The Ace-Time Continuum
by
Doug Thorburn

08-31

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16

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Oakland's Aces
by
Doug Thorburn

08-24

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15

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner
by
Doug Thorburn

08-17

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6

Raising Aces: Draft Day Deliveries, Part Three
by
Doug Thorburn

08-10

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6

Raising Aces: Hocking LOOGYs
by
Doug Thorburn

08-03

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4

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Zack Greinke vs. Jeremy Hellickson
by
Doug Thorburn

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The mechanical causes of massive pitcher platoon splits.

On Wednesday, Jason Collette wrote an excellent piece on the improvements that Justin Masterson has made this season, specifically citing the right-hander's sudden ability to quiet the noise from left-handed bats. The article caught my attention for a number of reasons, including the revelation that Jason and I share an unreasonable affinity for Nick Swisher. Jason kindly dropped a reference to my evaluation of Masterson from the 2013 Starting Pitcher Guide, and the story came full circle thanks to the fact that Masterson had been assigned to me for podcast homework by co-host Paul Sporer at the conclusion of our most recent episode of TINSTAAPP

Jason outlined some of the statistical differences in Masterson's 2013 performance, particularly noting his split stats versus left- and right-handed batters. Left-handed batters have accounted for 43 percent of all plate appearances league-wide since 2011, yet they tend to receive the majority of the attention when it comes to pitching strategy. Lefty hitters enjoy multiple advantages, ranging from the head start toward first base they get out of the box to the lesser gloves that typically populate the pull side of the infield (one of whom is tethered to the first-base bag).

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Paul and Doug breakdown the game of the year that wasn't as Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish fail to match the hype of their matchup.

Paul Sporer and Doug Thorburn discuss some relievers in the email section before breaking down the worst inning of Justin Verlander's career. They also discuss Yu Darvish's 130-pitch night and how much it matters. 

 

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May 22, 2013 9:35 am

Raising Aces: This Justin

13

Doug Thorburn

What has to go wrong for Justin Verlander to have a bad day at work?

The stage was set for an epic duel in Arlington last Thursday, pitting perennial CY Young contender Justin Verlander against 2013's frontrunner for the hardware, Yu Darvish of the Rangers. The matchup was a slam-dunk selection for the Game of the Week on this week's episode of TINSTAAPP, and the hype was such that it took thoughtful consideration before co-host/BP colleague Paul Sporer reluctantly chose the “under” when I set the line at 23 strikeouts for the two starters combined.

To say that the game fell short of expectation is a massive understatement. Darvish threw 130 pitches in a game in which he surrendered four runs over the first four frames yet was in no danger of losing. Verlander saw to it that Darvish would get his seventh win of the season, surrendering eight earned runs before he could escape the third inning. The third frame of Thursday's game was the worst of Verlander's career—the Rangers plated seven runners, including two via bases-loaded walks, and the outing ended mercifully after Geovany Soto knocked a 97-mph fastball into the left-field stands for an 8-3 Ranger lead.

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May 17, 2013 1:02 pm

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, First Quarter

12

Doug Thorburn

The nastiest offerings of the first quarter of the season.

Though I spend the vast majority of my time at Raising Aces immersed in the analysis of pitching mechanics, the best part of the game is the filthy stuff produced by the mechanical process. One of my favorite features at BP is Sam Miller's “The Best Pitches Thrown This Week,” in which the audience is inundated with GIFs of the nastiest projectiles caught on camera. Inspired by Sam's work, in conjunction with our human compulsion toward dicing the season into manageable chunks of information for the sake of over-analysis, I decided to conjure up a collection of the best stuff from the first quartile of the 2013 season.

The categories were chosen to reflect the elements of a well-rounded repertoire, with the data split into fastballs, breaking balls, and off-speed pitches. In appreciation of the qualitative value of elite pitching, both subjective and objective elements were considered when constructing the following lists, yet the end results were too close to call. I plead the audience to help me fill the gaps by voting for their favorite candidate in each pitch-type category and submitting votes in the comments section. [Stats through games of 5/15]

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May 10, 2013 5:03 am

Raising Aces: Extending the Process

3

Doug Thorburn

Pitching mechanics can have an impact even after the ball is put in play.

Much of statistical analysis in baseball involves the study of outcomes. Hits, walks, strikeouts—these are the results of what an athlete accomplishes on the field. The focus of scouting and coaching, by contrast, is on process.

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May 3, 2013 9:00 am

Raising Aces: Time to Unwind

29

Doug Thorburn

Why historical changes in pitching mechanics haven't always led to improvement.

The pitching delivery has evolved throughout the history of Major League Baseball. There are elements of old-school pitching mechanics that are now artifacts of a bygone era, and though one would expect the modern iteration of pitching instruction to have greatly progressed over time, there are some ways in which the pitchers of today have regressed compared to their predecessors. A few of these topics have been covered in previous editions of Raising Aces, such as the modern-day emphasis on angles and deception that has resulted in over-the-top arm slots and closed stride patterns.

The windup is a fundamental component of the pitching delivery, one so basic that its utility in the game is never questioned, yet it serves as a classic example of the ever-changing practices of the pitching-industrial complex. Pitcher windups have morphed over the past 70 years, and what was once a series of movements has been simplified to the current model, which basically involves a side-step and pivot, essentially putting the pitcher in the stretch position at the time that he initiates the lift phase of his motion.

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Examining the mechanical changes that have driven the success of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and the Red Sox.

One of the biggest stories of the first month of the 2013 season has been the incredible turnaround of the Boston Red Sox. The team went from a near-lock for the postseason in September of 2011 to the victims of one of history's greatest collapses, and the disaster carried over to 2012. The Sox were a .500 team in April of last season, and were still three games over at the end of June. However, Boston would go 28-56 over the rest of the campaign, winning just one-third of their remaining games in a brutal crash that was catalyzed by bad blood in the clubhouse and the fire sale of August 25th, in which the Red Sox flipped a quarter-billion dollars worth of contracts in a salary-dump that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett to Los Angeles.

General Manager Ben Cherington made a splash in free agency, signing a handful of players to revamp the roster, but the general outlook for this season was bleak. Preseason predictions by the BP staff placed Boston fourth in the AL East this year, but the team and the city have become a symbol for triumph in the wake of tragedy. Going into play on Tuesday, the Sox have the best record in the game at 18-7, and their run differential of +40 also leads the majors.

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April 26, 2013 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Throwdown: Mat Latos vs. Jeff Samardzija

4

Doug Thorburn

Dissecting Wednesday's 1-0 duel.

Midwest baseball fans were treated to an NL Central showdown on Wednesday, as the Cubs and the Reds squared off at Great American Ballpark with their aces on the mound. Mat Latos has been a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm for the Reds ever since his arrival via trade with the Padres in the offseason of 2011-12, and he has assumed the top spot in the Cincy rotation with Johnny Cueto currently on the shelf. The Cubbies countered with Jeff Samardzija, whose 2012 breakout has carried over to this season and who entered Wednesday's contest with the third-highest strikeout percentage in the National League (among starting pitchers).

The pitching prodigies did not disappoint. After a 90-minute rain delay, the two right-handers traded scoreless frames until the Reds broke through with a solo homer by Todd Frazier in the bottom of the sixth. When the dust cleared on the duel, that lone run would stand as the difference in a 1-0 Reds victory. Both players performed exceedingly well, yet a very different approach was at the foundation of each pitcher's success.

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Position players and pitching mechanics.

Bryce Harper's supernatural baseball gifts have been evident since before he could drive. Today he’s a 20-year-old super-freak who is slugging over .700 in the majors. His rare combination of competitive intensity, Las Vegas moxie, and otherworldly talent has set the stage for a legendary baseball career as the next lightning rod in the game. His raw power grades out as a pure 80 on the scouting ledger, and though such elite marks are extraordinarily rare, the legit five-tool player also has a throwing arm that ranks at the top of the 20-80 scale.

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April 19, 2013 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Trending: National Grade

5

Doug Thorburn

What role have mechanics played in the Nationals' strong starting staff?

The ingredients of success for a Major League Baseball team are rooted in scouting and player development, where carefully-crafted strategies dictate the growth patterns of in-house talent. Converting draft picks into major-league production is the engine of a successful franchise in today's game, and the pressure to develop players through the organizational pipeline has intensified due to the league-wide trend for teams to lock down homegrown talent for the long term.

The new-age baseball market features a thin free agent pool, which places additional emphasis on player evaluation, as teams assess trade targets and identify the select free agents whose flaws are perceived to be correctable. Pitching mechanics can play a major role in a team's approach to the acquisition and development of players, whether through the draft, free agency, or trade. As we saw in last month's breakdown of the mechanical trends of the Rays and Brewers, the on-field habits of a big-league staff can provide a window through which to glimpse an organizational approach to pitching.

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April 12, 2013 6:58 am

Raising Aces: Jose Fernandez, the Debut Ante

9

Doug Thorburn

Doug's review of the rookie's mechanics in his promising opening outing.

A number of rookie pitchers toed the rubber last weekend. Trevor Bauer continued his personal battles with mechanical consistency  on his way to walking seven Rays (including the first four he faced), while Julio Teheran continued to struggle with his curveball. Shelby Miller had a successful introduction to 2013, building on his excellent showing down the stretch last season, though his heavy reliance on the fastball raises familiar questions as he gets deep into games.

The aforementioned pitchers had each entered spring training with a chance to win a spot in the rotation for their respective reams, and each player had already been exposed to the bright lights of the majors, but the most impressive rookie on display last weekend was a 20-year-old with zero experience above high-A who shocked the baseball world with his massive leap to the majors. Jose Fernandez made his major-league debut for the Marlins on Sunday, pitching in Miami less than two years after he had been selected in the first round of the 2011 draft out of a Florida high school. Fernandez stepped onto the field as the second-youngest player in a major-league uniform (that Bryce Harper guy is younger).

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April 5, 2013 5:00 am

Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Setting the Tone

2

Doug Thorburn

Four top-tier starters get off to strong starts.

Results in the first week of the season can be volatile, especially on the mound, where many pitchers are still getting themselves into game shape. It is common to see velocities that are lower than peak, a higher frequency of mistimed deliveries, and strict pitch-count limitations as teams ease their aces into the new season.

This opening week was gratifying for those fantasy managers who invested in top-tier pitching on draft day, with a plethora of shutdown performances coming from the top-ranked players on the mound. The near-perfection of Yu Darvish was expertly covered by the Baseball Prospectus team earlier this week, and though his stat line was certainly aided by his facing the American League's weakest lineup, the performance was a positive indicator that Darvish's late-season success of 2012 will carry over into this season. 

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