Chris Perez | Indians

Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): No
AL-only (60 Keepers): Fringe
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

Mariano Rivera | Yankees
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): Fringe
Deep (90 Keepers): Yes
AL-only (60 Keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

As recently as last offseason, it was difficult to imagine Mariano Rivera as anything other than the ideal keeper candidate as far as closers go. It made perfect sense. While most stoppers have a shelf life comparable to that of an NFL running back, Mo’s run of sustained excellence more closely resembled that of a 40-something placekicker. Sure, he was bound see a decline in performance at some point, but when? Every year, we wondered: “Is this the year?” But it never seemed to arrive.

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Rafael Soriano | Nationals
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): Fringe
NL-only (60 Keepers): Fringe
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

The Nationals aren’t shy about padding an area of the roster that’s already deep, apparently. To the surprise of many, yours truly included, the Nats inked Rafael Soriano to a two-year, $28 million deal last week despite the presence of high-leverage relievers Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. Interestingly, General Manager Mike Rizzo wasn’t coy about Soriano’s role: the right-hander, who spent the past two years with the Yankees, was named Washington’s closer, presumably leaving Storen and Clippard to duke it out for the seventh and eighth innings.

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Aroldis Chapman | Reds
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): Fringe
Deep (90 Keepers): Yes
NL-only (60 Keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

Sure, the Reds are saying Chapman will transition from the bullpen (where he was a dominant closer last season) to the starting rotation in 2013. For fantasy purposes, however, it’s hardly that simple. As my colleague Paul Sporer explains, the jump from the ‘pen to the rotation can be a sticky wicket. In Chapman’s case, one has to wonder how his stuff will translate—diminished velocity is likely, as is a loss of some of the all-important control he discovered last season. Not to mention, we don’t know whether his golden left arm can handle the spike in workload; remember that he missed a couple weeks late in 2012 due to a tired pitching shoulder.

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Glen Perkins | Twins
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): Fringe
AL-only (60 Keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

Twins lefty Glen Perkins isn’t one of the first closers who comes to mind when thinking of keeper candidates, but he probably should be. After bouncing between the bullpen and rotation during his first few seasons in the majors, Perkins has settled in nicely as a high-leverage reliever over the past couple years. He got a shot at closing in 2012 and, in news that could only draw the attention of dorks, by season’s end had eventually earned the confidence of his manager and GM to be the team’s long-term answer in the ninth inning.

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Jason Grilli | Pirates
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): No
NL-only (60 Keepers): No
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Fringe

So much has happened since our last installment of Keeper Reaper: Relievers. Christmas and New Year’s came and went. The fiscal cliff was (sort of) avoided. And, of equal importance to all of that, the Pirates traded their closer and named a new one.

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Brandon League | Dodgers
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): No
NL-only (60 Keepers): Fringe
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Fringe

Brandon League, newly rich and the Dodgers’ undisputed closer, probably feels pretty fortunate right now. By midseason 2012 (his walk year), he was toiling in middle relief in a no-name Mariners bullpen after being demoted in favor of Tom Wilhemsen, an obscure 28-year-old rookie. Then, he was fortuitously bailed out of that bleak situation when he was acquired by the Dodgers. It was one of many moves Los Angeles made during the 2012 season that foreshadowed what has become an offseason in which they’ve spent lavishly—including on the likes of League, who inked a fat three-year deal before his market ever really took shape.

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Greg Holland | Royals
Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): Fringe
AL-only (60 Keepers): Fringe
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

Greg Holland has arguably been the Royals’ best reliever the past two seasons, and although he finally got a chance to close in the second-half of 2012, a couple major dominos had to fall for that to come to fruition. First, Joakim Soria was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery during spring training. Then, Soria’s replacement, Jonathan Broxton, was dealt to the Reds in a July trade. Finally, Holland became the man, and he handled the promotion with aplomb, presumably setting himself up nicely for first dibs on the ninth inning in 2013.

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Analyzing fantasy relievers is a strange proposition. I’ve done it for a couple seasons now, and it’s been my experience that no matter how much I think I know, there’s always an interesting plot twist that makes me rethink my understanding of how relievers are handled and how save opportunities are divvied up. It’s an inexact science, to be sure, but that’s what makes it challenging and fun… and sometimes frustrating. In that spirit, here’s a look back at some of my good and bad touts and what we might be able to learn from them with an eye toward 2013.

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Arrivals
The Rangers’ top three relievers—Joe Nathan, Mike Adams and Alexi Ogando—have all gotten some rest over the past week or so. Whether that’s because they’re dinged or because the team is looking to rest its primary assets with an eye toward the postseason (or both), the net effect of stirring some uncertainty from a fantasy perspective is all the same. Nathan was reportedly set to be back for full deployment by Tuesday night, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers look to limit his usage over the final couple weeks, and the same goes for Adams and Ogando. Koji Uehara (Yahoo! 2%, ESPN 0%, CBS 1%) picked up a save in their absences over the weekend, and while that may have been the result of a flukey confluence of circumstances, those conditions could very well remain in place over the next two weeks. It’s a long shot but one worth taking if you’re scrambling for that last point or so in saves.

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Arrivals
A couple weeks back, I touted versatile Reds lefty Sean Marshall (Yahoo! 30%, ESPN 20%, CBS 21%) as a sharp stash, hedging against the possibility of ace closer Aroldis Chapman being shut down. I was premature then, but it appears likely now that Chapman will see some rest over the season’s final three weeks. He’s pitched poorly—and with diminished velocity—in his past two outings, apparently due to a fatigued shoulder. The Reds, understandably, seem quite concerned.

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Arrivals
It seemed pretty improbable only a couple months ago that someone other than Kenley Jansen or Javy Guerra would be closing for the Dodgers at this juncture, but here we are: Guerra all but forgotten after spending a chunk of his season in the minors and Jansen out for the third time in the past year due to an irregular heartbeat. In their places are Brandon League, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Mariners in a deadline deal, and a resurrected Ronald Belisario (Yahoo! 16%, ESPN 15%, CBS 10%), whose career was on the ropes after missing all of 2011 due to visa issues and sitting out 25 games this season for a drug suspension.

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